Ukraine is now at war with Russia - official and only Ukraine Thread

[SkinnyJohn]

If they nuke Moscow to take out Putin I recommend you crack open a beer, light a smoke, go outside and look southwest towards Minot ND and watch the minuteman missiles launch. You won’t live long enough to finish either.

Sometimes I think this is actually it. It's going to happen. There is nothing to stop Putin from pushing that button if he loses this war. Nothing. I really don't want to live in a post nuclear world. Hope it goes fast.

 

[Mrmotorscooter]

 

[westwoody]

Walmart Unicity had a table by the front door with a Ukrainian taking donations.
Lots of people contributing.

The welcome for refugees at the Berlin train station is unbelievable…volunteers helping, piles of toys, clothes, furniture for kids, really good to see.

I want a Ukrainian flag for my car. Russians have been attacking cars with them…expel the fuckers. One vid showed a guy smashing the windows and tearing the flag off at a stoplight…don’t know why Russians have to act like that? Guy was arrested thanks to numerous dashcams and cellphone vids. Judge should seize their assets and kick them out with the clothes on their back like the refugees from Ukraine.

 

[masterpoonhunter]

Walmart Unicity had a table by the front door with a Ukrainian taking donations.
Lots of people contributing.

The welcome for refugees at the Berlin train station is unbelievable…volunteers helping, piles of toys, clothes, furniture for kids, really good to see.

I want a Ukrainian flag for my car. Russians have been attacking cars with them…expel the fuckers. One vid showed a guy smashing the windows and tearing the flag off at a stoplight…don’t know why Russians have to act like that? Guy was arrested thanks to numerous dashcams and cellphone vids. Judge should seize their assets and kick them out with the clothes on their back like the refugees from Ukraine.

Watching the news and seeing the humanity of those in Poland and Germany helping the refugees is overwhelming. Then seeing these thugs thinking that attacking and harassing supporters of Ukraine is their right and something that makes a difference really is a reminder of the dichotomy of the human race.

 

[westwoody]

There’s a very interesting thread on twitter re Russian foreign minister’s mistress’s daughter.
She is only 21 but bought a condo in an exclusive area of London for 4 million pounds cash. No job, no mortgage, no visible income.
Putin and his cronies are apex level thieves, robbing their own country and now moving into Ukraine to steal everything there.

 

[80watts]

Walmart Unicity had a table by the front door with a Ukrainian taking donations.
Lots of people contributing.

The welcome for refugees at the Berlin train station is unbelievable…volunteers helping, piles of toys, clothes, furniture for kids, really good to see.

I want a Ukrainian flag for my car. Russians have been attacking cars with them…expel the fuckers. One vid showed a guy smashing the windows and tearing the flag off at a stoplight…don’t know why Russians have to act like that? Guy was arrested thanks to numerous dashcams and cellphone vids. Judge should seize their assets and kick them out with the clothes on their back like the refugees from Ukraine.

You forgot to mention to fucken kick the shit out of them in a public place, brand them with a tattoo ( a nice sickle and hammer on the chest about 10 inches in size) etc. Oops sorry that so unCanadian of me...
Although many Russian that have immigrated after the wall fell down might have some home country pride and are still being persuaded by Russian propaganda.

The dumbfuck Putin should pull out of Ukraine, and retire to an non-treaty country where he can live out his life in exile on a limited budget. that is the nice way to end this. End the Oligarchy. Renew Russian economy with recovered money from the western countries. The Russians can rebuild their economy, Profits to take care of the people of Russia. In other words, a 2nd true Russian Revolution, where the people get the winnings.
Sorry forgot to add, reuse these funds to rebuild Ukraine first...

 

[80watts]

There’s a very interesting thread on twitter re Russian foreign minister’s mistress’s daughter.
She is only 21 but bought a condo in an exclusive area of London for 4 million pounds cash. No job, no mortgage, no visible income.
Putin and his cronies are apex level thieves, robbing their own country and now moving into Ukraine to steal everything there.

Sure she isn't the minister's daughter?
If the money can be traced to the minister, she will loose her condo. Kinda sucks for her. I'm still wondering how many superyachts will be impounded even at countries with no treaty limitations. Ex special ops stealing these big yachts and taking them to ports who countries will impound them... I like that kind of theft. KARMA.

 

[maxic]

Russia appetite to snap up more countries or regions will only grow if they are successful in UA make no mistake as history tells us everything no doubt , Putin got green light with disastrous and embarrassing US withdrawal from Afghanistan was a spark plug to get rolling but looks like UA fights back and were underestimated.

 

[rlock]

A video for you:

Two experts do Q&A on the subject of war in Ukraine , related coups, diplomatic & intelligence actions, and great power confrontation (including nuclear).

It's a long video - basically a podcast - on Zoom unfortunately. Being older guys, they do tend to ramble. But ultimately it's worth it to hear the point of view of those whose profession is entirely about this stuff.

Keep in mind, these guys are the top tier of experts in the USA, recognized globally as some of the most incisive minds on the issue of international conflict, with experience going way back to the old Cold War days. Policy makers (the real ones, not clowns who win our elections), diplomats, war colleges, listen to these guys - those who study war and the history of war, are taught by guys like this.

We're talking about analysing the deeper stuff here, not the "consensus" baby food that is fed to the public by the media, without dissent. If you want empty rhetoric, clickbait, go watch Fox, CNN, BBC, Global, CBC, etc. - they do not do real reporting or independent analysis anymore, because that causes real debate.

I know it's probably too much for a site like PERB. I mean why are we here on this site? Certainly not this. But if people are going to have a Lounge thread about this subject, they should back up their opinions with something more than shallow repetition of the nightly news. Maybe a treat for some of the ex-military folks on here, who do not get enough chances to talk about tomahawk missiles being nuclear capable- and so on ?

I also think it's useful in one other way. People talk about how Putin's an ex-KGB guy, but I do not think they usually know what that means. It means he understands strategic thought, and the implications of adversaries' actions which seem innocuous to the general public over here. It means he's the kind of guy who always think in these sort of terms - not commerce, popularity, or human rights, all of which he'd think are just sideshows to the main event, which is always war. That war can be overt (like right now) or covert (the rest of the time), but to Putin war is never not being waged against Russia. If you understand that Putin thinks Washington has never stopped slowly waging war against his country, you'll maybe understand why he decided to counter it by waging war openly and quickly upon Ukraine.

Like I said, poor Ukraine, getting caught in the middle of this larger fight and turned into a battlefield.

This war is worse than the western public realizes, because there is far deeper villainy going on than they realize, and the stakes are basically the end of everything. If the Russians end up in battle conventionally against NATO, that's a war which must turn nuclear. If the nukes start to fly, it is all done. Game over for civilization. Regardless of who starts it, there is no winning a nuclear war. Everyone will lose, everywhere.

 

[rlock]

Limited nuclear exchange ending with Putin killed by NATO nukes or his own generals.

No such thing as limited nuclear exchange.

Check this link / article out : Russian nuclear doctrine

Some highlights...

Russia does not build its policy on the principle of "escalation for the sake of de-escalation", the NATO countries and Ukraine are talking about the possibility of a nuclear war, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said 03 March 2022. According to him, the conditions for the use of nuclear weapons by Russia are described in the military doctrine. "We have it there there is no escalation for the sake of de-escalation, as Western analysts are trying to impute to us. But the talk about nuclear war is now underway. I ask you to look very carefully at the statements that were made and at the characters who made these statements," the minister said in an interview.

There are four scenarios in which Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons, that is, to go beyond nuclear deterrence.

• obtaining reliable information about the launch of ballistic missiles attacking Russia;
• the use of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction against Russia;
• some impact on objects, the failure of which will lead to the disruption of the response of nuclear forces;
• aggression against Russia with the use of conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is threatened.

The condition is connected with the response of Russia upon receipt of information about ballistic missiles attacking its territory or the territory of its allies, the material says. This will be notified by the missile attack warning system. It is noted that the answer will follow in the case of the use of any weapons of mass destruction, both nuclear and conventional. Such aggression against the country will be defined as an attempt to "destroy Russia as a state." ...

In his now famous address to lawmakers in March 2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated that under Russian nuclear doctrine, nuclear weapons may be used only in the event of a nuclear attack on Russia, or an act of conventional aggression so severe that it threatens the existence of the Russian state. "As such, I see it as my duty to announce the following: Any use of nuclear weapons against Russia or its allies, weapons of short, medium or any other range, will be considered a nuclear attack on the country. Retaliation will be immediate, with all the attendant consequences," the head of state emphasized.

Amid NATO's deployments ever-closer to Russia's borders, the US's construction of its anti-missile shield in Romania and Poland, and Washington's plans to spend over $1 trillion to modernize its nuclear arsenal, Russia's Defense Ministry has justified its own new or upgraded strategic weapons as tools meant "to enhance [the] defense capacity of Russia" and "prevent any aggression against [the] country and its allies."

Alexei Arbatov also noted that the core of the new 2018 American nuclear doctrine is the selective, limited use of nuclear weapons in response to the selective, limited use of such weapons by Russia. Previously, this was not emphasized. Now the document says that Russia has the concept of “escalation for the sake of de-escalation,” and in response to this, the US is modernizing its nuclear triad (intercontinental missiles, strategic submarines and bombers). The Americans want to convince Russia that any escalation of the usual conflict will not force the West to surrender, that it will respond, and an escalation will begin, which will cost everyone much. “This is the most serious innovation, which, in my opinion, is the most dangerous. It lowers the nuclear threshold, creates the possibility of nuclear war, even in the case of a local, accidental non-nuclear military collision, whether in Syria or in the Baltic or Black Sea region. We just need to pay serious attention to this,” said Arbatov. In turn, Yevgeny Buzhinsky is convinced that the conflict with the use of nuclear weapons will end in the exchange of strategic strikes between Russia and the United States. “For me, this is absolutely obvious. Any military man understands that it is impossible to stop a nuclear conflict!”, the expert noted.

The TL;DR version of all that is this:
The Russians feel that NATO is an overt enemy, bent on Russia's total destruction. If Ukraine becomes a NATO country (with the usual NATO nuclear first-strike capability against Russia), this constitutes an immediate threat to Russia's survival, and that this justifies the use of nuclear weapons to prevent that happening. The war in Ukraine stays conventional only if Russia can win it conventionally. Any NATO country gets directly involved in combat (including trying any so-called "no fly zone"), and that is outright open war, with the full spectrum of weapons used globally - land, sea, air, and nukes. There is no threshold of what size or type (tactical, intermediate, strategic) of nuclear weapons get used, no intermediate escalating stage. Just full-out nuclear combat, less than 30 minutes from launch orders issued to total global extinction.

The US side would be no less willing or able to back down from this type of conflict than the Russians are, once it happens. Let's hope old man Biden can cast his mind back to pre-1989 and remember why that's a bad thing.

 

[westwoody]

superyachts will be impounded even at countries with no treaty limitations.

Good video on twitter last night of Italian police seizing a huge sailing yacht, they said it was the world’s largest.

 

[masterblaster]

No such thing as limited nuclear exchange.

Check this link / article out : Russian nuclear doctrine

Some highlights...



The TL;DR version of all that is this:
The Russians feel that NATO is an overt enemy, bent on Russia's total destruction. If Ukraine becomes a NATO country (with the usual NATO nuclear first-strike capability against Russia), this constitutes an immediate threat to Russia's survival, and that this justifies the use of nuclear weapons to prevent that happening. The war in Ukraine stays conventional only if Russia can win it conventionally. Any NATO country gets directly involved in combat (including trying any so-called "no fly zone"), and that is outright open war, with the full spectrum of weapons used globally - land, sea, air, and nukes. There is no threshold of what size or type (tactical, intermediate, strategic) of nuclear weapons get used, no intermediate escalating stage. Just full-out nuclear combat, less than 30 minutes from launch orders issued to total global extinction.

The US side would be no less willing or able to back down from this type of conflict than the Russians are. Let's hope old man Biden can cast his mind back to pre-1989 and remember why that's a bad thing.

Personally I don’t foresee any use of nuclear weapons. The Russians are dumb but not that dumb.

 

[westwoody]

There a lot of people between Putin or Biden and the actual launch switches.
Any one of them makes a personal decision - with another crew member - to go or no go.

 

[80watts]

A video for you:

Two experts do Q&A on the subject of war in Ukraine , related coups, diplomatic & intelligence actions, and great power confrontation (including nuclear).

It's a long video - basically a podcast - on Zoom unfortunately. Being older guys, they do tend to ramble. But ultimately it's worth it to hear the point of view of those whose profession is entirely about this stuff.

Keep in mind, these guys are the top tier of experts in the USA, recognized globally as some of the most incisive minds on the issue of international conflict, with experience going way back to the old Cold War days. Policy makers (the real ones, not clowns who win our elections), diplomats, war colleges, listen to these guys - those who study war and the history of war, are taught by guys like this.

We're talking about analysing the deeper stuff here, not the "consensus" baby food that is fed to the public by the media, without dissent. If you want empty rhetoric, clickbait, go watch Fox, CNN, BBC, Global, CBC, etc. - they do not do real reporting or independent analysis anymore, because that causes real debate.

I know it's probably too much for a site like PERB. I mean why are we here on this site? Certainly not this. But if people are going to have a Lounge thread about this subject, they should back up their opinions with something more than shallow repetition of the nightly news. Maybe a treat for some of the ex-military folks on here, who do not get enough chances to talk about tomahawk missiles being nuclear capable- and so on ?

I also think it's useful in one other way. People talk about how Putin's an ex-KGB guy, but I do not think they usually know what that means. It means he understands strategic thought, and the implications of adversaries' actions which seem innocuous to the general public over here. It means he's the kind of guy who always think in these sort of terms - not commerce, popularity, or human rights, all of which he'd think are just sideshows to the main event, which is always war. That war can be overt (like right now) or covert (the rest of the time), but to Putin war is never not being waged against Russia. If you understand that Putin thinks Washington has never stopped slowly waging war against his country, you'll maybe understand why he decided to counter it by waging war openly and quickly upon Ukraine.

Like I said, poor Ukraine, getting caught in the middle of this larger fight and turned into a battlefield.

This war is worse than the western public realizes, because there is far deeper villainy going on than they realize, and the stakes are basically the end of everything. If the Russians end up in battle conventionally against NATO, that's not a war which must turn nuclear. If the nukes start to fly, it is all done. Game over for civilization. Regardless of who starts it, there is no winning a nuclear war. Everyone will lose, everywhere.

I don't think the KGB think strategic thoughts. The KBG is only there for one purpose, the enforcement of Russian Political Doctrine. They tortured and disappeared (murdered) their own citizens; if they thought the citizen would cause public dissent. The state is all powerful. The people that worked for the state were all powerful. Thats what Putin wants a recreated soviet state. And a buffer zone between him and free European Nations (who are mostly involved with NATO).
Putin has cracked down on his internal opposition, because he fears losing power.
What was happening in the last 20 years in Russia were the Russian people getting a mind of their own, free thought, free to chose things. Slowly the ex Warsaw pact members were chosing the free part of Europe. Why because Russia forced communism on them in the aftermath of WW2. So why did Poland and other ex warsaw pact members chose to join NATO. They feared Russian Oppression....

 

[vanperb]

Personally I don’t foresee any use of nuclear weapons. The Russians are dumb but not that dumb.

You're chalking the decision to be up to a number of thoughtful individuals, not a singular isolated misinformed potentially senile old man with delusions of a grander age.

 

[Forum mod]

Here we go again, the new COVID tinfoil hat lovers favorite thread. There will be no youtube videos from unknown sources claiming the Ukraine is the world's chemical weapon king, links to clearly bullshit propaganda or anything remotely like it allowed. Zero tolerance. Shakerod and heyhowareyou are banned for a month. Care to join them? Keep it up.

There are documented cases of Russian cyber types pumping this shit into the same groups and channels that the COVID disinformation has gone to, Telegram channels, reddit, youtube etc. It really seems to resonate with the easily duped those pre-disposed to believe anything they see online. We are not going to allow it here. Period.

 

[westwoody]

Abramovich has a 600 million dollar yacht AND a 700 million dollar yacht.
Tell me he is an honest businessman.

 

[80watts]

Abramovich has a 600 million dollar yacht AND a 700 million dollar yacht.
Tell me he is an honest businessman.

A moveable asset with gold for ballasting; outside of Russia.

 

[oldshark]

Abramovich had a lot of support from Putin and 'acquired' the Russian Far East after Valentin Tsvetkov (not sure of spelling) was gunned down in Moscow.

 

[rlock]

There a lot of people between Putin or Biden and the actual launch switches.
Any one of them makes a personal decision - with another crew member - to go or no go.

There's a lot of people who can intercede to prevent a nuclear war by accident (and yeah, that's almost happened at least twice in history).
However, if given clear & deliberate orders, by someone who is not foaming-at-the-mouth nuts, they are likely to carry out their orders.