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Ukraine is now at war with Russia - official and only Ukraine Thread

Asian Fever

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The US side would be no less willing or able to back down from this type of conflict than the Russians are, once it happens. Let's hope old man Biden can cast his mind back to pre-1989 and remember why that's a bad thing.
Old or not, I think his response has been fairly reasonable and responsible. Riding the line, but not crossing it.

Russia can get fucked.
 

Asian Fever

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Look at the ex-Warsaw pact members that have joined NATO and Europe. why? Because they have a chance of a better life. Look at Russia, in the last 30 years alot of Oligarchs made fortunes at the expense of their own people. These are the owners of those really big superyachts worth hundreds of million of dollars. Look at Trudeau, although he is a rich boy, I don't think he has a superyacht the size and price of the an Russian Oligarch.
I think people forget that Russia is not the USSR. Their GDP is less than Canada with a much larger population, due only to their own actions.

Whatever domestic issues we may have, Canada is fucking awesome.
 

rlock

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I don't think the KGB think strategic thoughts.

Thats what Putin wants a recreated soviet state.

And a buffer zone between him and free European Nations (who are mostly involved with NATO).

So why did Poland and other ex warsaw pact members chose to join NATO. They feared Russian Oppression....
- That's cute. But I speak more about the difference between the kind of people who are strategic thinkers and those who aren't. Doesn't mean they always succeed, just that they play "the game" at a much deeper level.

- Nope, that is a miscalculation. He's an old KGB hard man, and definitely an autocrat, but has no intention of remaking a communist system that's already failed once. I think he's more like a Tsar, and tends to think in terms of old school great power competition. But consider this: a guy like that would not have taken power and kept it, if Russia was not under direct threat to begin with. Before Putin, there was Yeltsin, the guy who was perma-drunk while the country was weakened to near-collapse and its resources pirated by oligarchs, and jihadis began to try breaking southern regions away for themselves. Coincidentally, all this was around the time the USA began to talk openly about making sure they would be the only real power in the world, able to act with impunity, forever.

- Buffer zone? Yup. In fact, that's pretty much been the clearest & most consistent strategic objective of the Russians since the before 21st century even dawned. You'll have to ask the Americans why they continually rejected the idea in favour of increasing confrontation at every turn. Did any of this make Europe safer? Fuck no. Did it help Ukraine, ever? Fuck no. Could they have had peace from the Urals to the Atlantic if they just dropped the idea? Fuck yes. If the price of having peace across Europe was accepting the same kind of neutrality that made places like Sweden, Austria, and Finland so prosperous, who wouldn't want to accept those terms? Well, look and you will see: only Washington thought it was a terrible idea, and I suspect that's because it would have made NATO obsolete. A Europe at peace with Russia, or even allied to Russia, would not need the US presence anymore.

- Poland's been Uncle Sam's #1 fan ever since the Kaczynski twins were co-leaders of Poland and Dubya was US president. Of all the European countries, they are also the one that hates Russia beyond all reason, but will do literally anything Washington wants (like be the most eager to join the Iraq invasion). More cynically, Poland also competes directly with Russia when it comes to controlling Ukraine and Belarus (and remember Poland used to rule Ukraine too).
But another part of the answer to why those countries joined is this: while the Russians objected clearly to any ex-USSR republic joining NATO, and were always ready to go ballistic (pardon the pun) over Ukraine or Belarus, they were close to indifferent about NATO absorbing states like Poland or Romania, etc. Yes, they said this was the breaking of a key promise that was made to the USSR and then Russia prior to their troops leaving eastern Europe, but Russia was always clear and consistent when it came to what they would or wouldn't accept, what they did and what they did not consider a mortal threat.

"They fear Russian oppression" is not much of an answer, if you leave out the part where Washington was all too willing to manipulate other countries by stoking old grievances & paranoia. The USSR is dead, and Stalin even deader. The Cold War ended mostly peacefully, with USSR troops leaving eastern Europe voluntarily, not being driven out forcibly or even being handed an ultimatum to fuck off. Some threat; it retreated voluntarily. Everything that's gone wrong since then has been in reaction to a provocation (And there have been so many since then). When Russia objected to the Baltic states joining NATO, the Americans scoffed that there was anything Russia could even do about it - and maybe back in 2004, that may have been the case. But Putin never forgot it, nor that the US & UK supported the Chechen jihadis attacking Russia itself. Relations have been steadily worse since then, so I ask you (again) how has any of this NATO expansion strategy actually helped Europe? Europe is on fire now, and America's key strategy for the last 20 years has been prove either a lie or a total failure.

Another example: Look to east Asia, and you can see China and Korea (both of them) still angry at Japan over old history, but only North Korea might actually consider it an ongoing conflict. Japan has not fucked with anything on the Korean peninsula since 1945. China has reasons to play the wounded victim in diplomacy, when today it is the larger and more aggressive nation compared to modern Japan. South Korea actually gets along well with Japan, and they are basically allies, except for still wanting a Japanese apology for past wrongs. But North Korea still acts as if those wounds as as fresh as they were in 1945, picking fights with Japan over basically nothing, or acting like they could conquer South Korea like it's still 1949 - and for that, we consider the North Korean government quite insane. Living in the past to that degree is not bravery, it is foolishness. Of course, it does still matter when it is causing division and danger. Who benefits from that ? I would say both the US and Chinese, each in their own way, do not want the situation to ever actually get better.

The problem with the public (in the west anyways) is how naive people are. They see everything as white hat/black hat, and seem to forget everything that does not fit the narrative. Facts be damned, they want to take a side and then pretend it is the side of the angels.

There are no angels in charge. There are no good guys. Victims? Yes, plenty of those.
 
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80watts

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- That's cute. But I speak more about the difference between the kind of people who are strategic thinkers and those who aren't. Doesn't mean they always succeed, just that they play "the game" at a much deeper level.

- Nope, that is a miscalculation. He's an old KGB hard man, and definitely an autocrat, but has no intention of remaking a communist system that's already failed once. I think he's more like a Tsar, and tends to think in terms of old school great power competition. But consider this: a guy like that would not have taken power and kept it, if Russia was not under direct threat to begin with. Before Putin, there was Yeltsin, the guy who was perma-drunk while the country was weakened to near-collapse and its resources pirated by oligarchs, and jihadis began to try breaking southern regions away for themselves. Coincidentally, all this was around the time the USA began to talk openly about making sure they would be the only real power in the world, able to act with impunity, forever.

- Buffer zone? Yup. In fact, that's pretty much been the clearest & most consistent strategic objective of the Russians since the before 21st century even dawned. You'll have to ask the Americans why they continually rejected the idea in favour of increasing confrontation at every turn. Did any of this make Europe safer? Fuck no. Did it help Ukraine, ever? Fuck no. Could they have had peace from the Urals to the Atlantic if they just dropped the idea? Fuck yes. If the price of having peace across Europe was accepting the same kind of neutrality that made places like Sweden, Austria, and Finland so prosperous, who wouldn't want to accept those terms? Well, look and you will see: only Washington thought it was a terrible idea, and I suspect that's because it would have made NATO obsolete. A Europe at peace with Russia, or even allied to Russia, would not need the US presence anymore.

- Poland's been Uncle Sam's #1 fan ever since the Kaczynski twins were co-leaders of Poland and Dubya was US president. Of all the European countries, they are also the one that hates Russia beyond all reason, but will do literally anything Washington wants (like be the most eager to join the Iraq invasion). More cynically, Poland also competes directly with Russia when it comes to controlling Ukraine and Belarus (and remember Poland used to rule Ukraine too).
But another part of the answer to why those countries joined is this: while the Russians objected clearly to any ex-USSR republic joining NATO, and were always ready to go ballistic (pardon the pun) over Ukraine or Belarus, they were close to indifferent about NATO absorbing states like Poland or Romania, etc. Yes, they said this was the breaking of a key promise that was made to the USSR and then Russia prior to their troops leaving eastern Europe, but Russia was always clear and consistent when it came to what they would or wouldn't accept, what they did and what they did not consider a mortal threat.

"They fear Russian oppression" is not much of an answer, if you leave out the part where Washington was all too willing to manipulate other countries by stoking old grievances & paranoia. The USSR is dead, and Stalin even deader. The Cold War ended mostly peacefully, with USSR troops leaving eastern Europe voluntarily, not being driven out forcibly or even being handed an ultimatum to fuck off. Some threat; it retreated voluntarily. Everything that's gone wrong since then has been in reaction to a provocation (And there have been so many since then). When Russia objected to the Baltic states joining NATO, the Americans scoffed that there was anything Russia could even do about it - and maybe back in 2004, that may have been the case. But Putin never forgot it, nor that the US & UK supported the Chechen jihadis attacking Russia itself. Relations have been steadily worse since then, so I ask you (again) how has any of this NATO expansion strategy actually helped Europe? Europe is on fire now, and America's key strategy for the last 20 years has been prove either a lie or a total failure.

Another example: Look to east Asia, and you can see China and Korea (both of them) still angry at Japan over old history, but only North Korea might actually consider it an ongoing conflict. Japan has not fucked with anything on the Korean peninsula since 1945. China has reasons to play the wounded victim in diplomacy, when today it is the larger and more aggressive nation compared to modern Japan. South Korea actually gets along well with Japan, and they are basically allies, except for still wanting a Japanese apology for past wrongs. But North Korea still acts as if those wounds as as fresh as they were in 1945, picking fights with Japan over basically nothing, or acting like they could conquer South Korea like it's still 1949 - and for that, we consider the North Korean government quite insane. Living in the past to that degree is not bravery, it is foolishness. Of course, it does still matter when it is causing division and danger. Who benefits from that ? I would say both the US and Chinese, each in their own way, do not want the situation to ever actually get better.

The problem with the public (in the west anyways) is how naive people are. They see everything as white hat/black hat, and seem to forget everything that does not fit the narrative. Facts be damned, they want to take a side and then pretend it is the side of the angels.

There are no angels in charge. There are no good guys. Victims? Yes, plenty of those.
I'll just let the good old American dollar do the talking as to why Ex Warsaw countries want the EU, and NATO.

Russia is losing its influence and can't compete economically with the EU or the US.

Putin is "trying to make " the USSR great again, and is failing miserably. Therefore it annexes its neighbours to have a buffer zone, when NATO is a defensive alliance. Wonder why most ex warsaw countries want to join NATO....

Gets rid of the Russian yoke!!! Which under communist rule and TSAR rule wasn't that good for the average person.
 

80watts

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Another thing to look at is the past years in Russia with Putin cracking down on critics and on free media inside of Russia.

A parallel could be made about Trump's verbal and written accounts on the Free Press labeling the Free Press as "Fake News".

An attack on the Free Press.

Nothing more separated the American people as a people; than Trump did with his attacks on the Free Press during his Presidency.
 

80watts

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So as the civilian casualties go up(n), with artillery and rocket attacks(n).
Call Putins:poop: bluff.
Give Putin:poop: a demand to pull out of all Ukrainian territories (from before the 2014 annexation) by a certain date. If he doesn't the European countries should then enforce a no-fly zone over all Ukraine (before the 2014 annexation). No other forces will be employed on land. Volunteers can still go and fight, materials can still go.
The limit of Ukrainian land attack will be to its old borders.
This way its only European powers that are involve in a spat over in Europe.
Have America stand back from it; and of course enter only if one of the NATO countries is attacked.
And if the deranged Putin:poop: can't see why he is in the wrong. Have the Americans Fuck him up the ass real bad like....

And if the Russians use Chemical Weapons. Americans will drop Canadian beer 10 mile behind the Russian Border. Nothing will stop a Canadian from getting his beer, especially if they stopped 2 weeks prior. I pity the poor soul that stands between a Canadian Soldier and his beer.....

If its nuclear war, then lets get it over with asap. And I won't have to worry about inflation.... doh...:cool:

Call his fucken bluff!!
 
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shakeshake

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The first casualty of war is Truth.
Recently I came across a website checkyourfact.com
Worth double checking reports and images on the internet.
 

80watts

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The first casualty of war is Truth.
Recently I came across a website checkyourfact.com
Worth double checking reports and images on the internet.
Seems legitimate... but ultimately tell 99 truths and give 1 lie, and still the lie outweighs the truths. Take it with a grain of salt.
 

angry anderson

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So as the civilian casualties go up(n), with artillery and rocket attacks(n).
Call Putins:poop: bluff.
Give Putin:poop: a demand to pull out of all Ukrainian territories (from before the 2014 annexation) by a certain date. If he doesn't the European countries should then enforce a no-fly zone over all Ukraine (before the 2014 annexation). No other forces will be employed on land. Volunteers can still go and fight, materials can still go.
The limit of Ukrainian land attack will be to its old borders.
This way its only European powers that are involve in a spat over in Europe.
Have America stand back from it; and of course enter only if one of the NATO countries is attacked.
And if the deranged Putin:poop: can't see why he is in the wrong. Have the Americans Fuck him up the ass real bad like....

And if the Russians use Chemical Weapons. Americans will drop Canadian beer 10 mile behind the Russian Border. Nothing will stop a Canadian from getting his beer, especially if they stopped 2 weeks prior. I pity the poor soul that stands between a Canadian Soldier and his beer.....

If its nuclear war, then lets get it over with asap. And I won't have to worry about inflation.... doh...:cool:

Call his fucken bluff!!
Trouble is, nobody really wants to call his bluff on that one. Never say never with this c*nt.
 
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80watts

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Totalitarian regimes: Russia and China
Russia wants Ukraine, China wants Taiwan and the South China Sea. So if Russia succeeds in Ukraine, China will launch against Taiwan. Countries like Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, India could fall under Chinese sway. The thing to think about here the economic might of China, and how now its using its power to persuade these countries to follow under its influence. China has taken itself to make in ways with the African continent, and with Pakistan, wanting to build roads and railways for a trade network. Will this sway the hearts and minds of the countries along these planned trade routes. China power is waxing and the US power is waning.

The other thing is that human rights in Russia, what little they have is slowly being suppressed, while China comes down hard on any dissent.

Then there is Russia's involvement in Syria, which caused problems for Israel from preventing them from bombing terrorists(backed by Iran) in Syria . Russian planes were flying with Syrian planes, prevent action from Israeli planes. Chess moves, before the Ukrainian invavsion.
European countries retired most of their monarchies after WW1 and WW2. It seems Russia and China are wanting to get monarchies/dictatorships. The problem with monarchies the individual that became king or emperor were exceptional people who could do things, while the next generations tended to fuck it up. Same thing with totalitarian states.

Knocking Russia off this path, prevents it from joining China. Or is Russia sucking up to the growing power of China?
 

Forum mod

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There is no doubt there's some tacit or not so tacit cooperation going on there and China is clearly watching to see how it goes so they can finally make their play for Taiwan. China is not overtly helping them at least so far and the US has threatened them if they do which never ends well when China is concerned. The world would be in much worse shape if they tried to sanction China like they have Russia however, much wider impacts on the world economy. They certainly uneasy allies at best. China's economy is also much larger than Russia's, like 10x larger.
 

masterpoonhunter

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If the reports are to be believed, I for one can't believe how poorly the Ruskies have run this campaign. Or maybe this is how it is today where even a superpower is not going to just walk in and take over a country. Unless of course they start using CBRN as well as E.
 

MB Mod

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If the reports are to be believed, I for one can't believe how poorly the Ruskies have run this campaign. Or maybe this is how it is today where even a superpower is not going to just walk in and take over a country. Unless of course they start using CBRN as well as E.
It’s hard to believe this is the same army that was going to surge out of the Fulda Gap and be on the beach in Calais in 5 days back in the 70’s and 80’s.
 

Asian Fever

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It's also the first time they have been up against a large quantity of western munitions, and a military that has been getting western training for years. I think that also makes a difference... especially when their forces mostly consist of cold war era equipment.
 

oldshark

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If the reports are to be believed, I for one can't believe how poorly the Ruskies have run this campaign. Or maybe this is how it is today where even a superpower is not going to just walk in and take over a country. Unless of course they start using CBRN as well as E.
I used to live in Russia (work assignment) at the turn of the century. It was something to fly through a place like Petropavlovsk and seeing all the military planes junked off to the side of the airport.

There were a lot of problems with the military at that time. They were demoralized, displaced and generally unhappy. Suddenly there were lots of 30 to 50 year old officers out there without a job. Sure they got a 'pension' but it was pitiful. Many of them turned to drink. Lots of capability suddenly disappeared. In the ensuing years, they have been unable to attract quality people. So yah, I can believe what has happened.

Being a conscript in Russia is so bad that parents try to bribe the authorities to get their sons out of the military. Those that end up as conscripts don't want to risk their lives, especially for Putin's pride. If Russia was being attacked, I think that they would do better. But imagine yourself as a junior officer dealing with these poor sods. Unless your family was long time 'military' you wouldn't consider such a career in the military. And if you did then the main qualification for advancement would be to kiss ass? The opportunities are just so much better in the private sector.
 

80watts

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The biggest invention in the last 30 years was the anti-air shoulder launched missiles. Without air superiority, an army cannot hope to win. Keeping the other side from getting air superiority also helps your troops.

Also the type of land you fight on. Ukraine is farmland, so when it rains it bogs down cross country routes. Only road that are built up can you move traffic on. Which is why the long convoys of Russian vehicles is limited to the roads. Because spring rains are around the corner, it is wise to keep off the farmland.

Also the cheap anti-tank weapons also have an affect on the Russian vehicles.

Keep up the air defense, keep pressure on russian vehicles, the next thing is to take out supporting artillery. The cities of Ukraine should be well defended now. But they will still need supplies like food, water, medical supplies, ammo and weapons to keep up the fight. So it is gonna take alot of trucks to haul material to the Ukrainian cities through Poland and other countries.

In the meantime refugees from the Ukraine need support. ??What are some places to donate to?

I want Ukraine to win, it will be bloody in terms of lives lost. The other side is what will happen to Ukraine after it wins. Who is going to help rebuild it?

Also on the black sea side, Odessa will need some small water craft with missile systems on them to contend with the russian navy in the area. Some harpoons will do on some fast attack boats.
 

Ray

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Totalitarian regimes: Russia and China
Russia wants Ukraine, China wants Taiwan and the South China Sea. So if Russia succeeds in Ukraine, China will launch against Taiwan. Countries like Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, India could fall under Chinese sway. The thing to think about here the economic might of China, and how now its using its power to persuade these countries to follow under its influence.
South Korea, Japan, and India will never fall under China's sway. Ancient societies with very long histories. India is a direct competitor, economically as well as militarily.
 

masterblaster

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It's also the first time they have been up against a large quantity of western munitions, and a military that has been getting western training for years. I think that also makes a difference... especially when their forces mostly consist of cold war era equipment.
I think the Russians come up that type of thing in Afghanistan. The U.S. supplied the mujahideen with weapons, particularly the Stinger missile Guess the Russians forgot the lesson they learned there.
 

Asian Fever

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I think the Russians come up that type of thing in Afghanistan. The U.S. supplied the mujahideen with weapons, particularly the Stinger missile Guess the Russians forgot the lesson they learned there.
You're absolutely correct they did come across the Stingers but I don't think anything of this scale with javelins and just the sheer quantity of support that's been sent over there.

Not to mention that the ukrainians also have air defenses still active.

Could you imagine what would happen if they went up against a modern Western military? They would get completely wiped out.
 
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