This should scare the crap out of you

[wilde]

Long on observations and short on solutions, mixed in with a little bit of fear mongering (notice that last picture of his presentation of Obama semi-bowing to the Chinese Premier and stayed there during question period). Is that what passes for a lecture at Harvard these days?

 

[normisanas]

Long on observations and short on solutions, mixed in with a little bit of fear mongering (notice that last picture of his presentation of Obama semi-bowing to the Chinese Premier and stayed there during question period). Is that what passes for a lecture at Harvard these days?

It was unfortunate he chose that photo, it does show his bias. One wonders if there is a racist motive.

But obviously it does pass for Harvard, as he is well respected there and at many other academic institutions and his peers.

He is long on observations but being a historian and not a politician, why would one expect him to provide solutions? It would be missing the point. However, what is disturbing is that his observtions seem reasonable, imply horrific consequences, and most disturbing of all is that those in power are taking notice of him.

 

[InTheBum]

I didn't realize that folks who dumpster dive empty bottles for a living could contribute to CPP. Good on you ITB for reporting your main source of income so as to maximize your CPP eligibility. BTW, as a professional alcoholic, is your booze a legitimate tax deduction?

PeaceGuy...this fantasy of yours about me is almost at pathetic as your Turkish Bathouse gig...with "extras" for the right gentleman in shower stall #3. I hope your drug habit is under control these days....?

 

[InTheBum]

You will probably be surprised that I don't agree with raising the age of retirement. This will mean that the poor guy hanging drywall will have two more years of backbreaking work before he can retire. Of course this won't affect the welfare bum. He doesn't care which agency his government cheque comes from.

Lets crack down on the welfare and EI abuse and leave the seniors alone.

Welfare and EI abuse? 55% for EI is a joke...IMO...EI should be 80% and anyone that quits a job is qualified to collect. None of this bullshit...you have to get "laid off". Give the power to the employees so they can't get abused at jobs and employers are forced to treat them well...

I say get rid of 90% of the Federal civil servants and cut back all pay on municipal workers 50% min. You don't need to pay someone $35 an hr to clean streets and they are hardly "engineers". Complete and total waste of taxpayer dollars....

 

[wilde]

I am in China at the moment, have no access to youtube. Is the speaker Niall Ferguson? That euro-centric historian? I agree with some of his points, especially magna carta being the key to the rise of europe. But this guy keep saying it is society structure, and culture that made europeans so dominant, but in fact there are lots of factors, including geographic, the west's easy conquest of North and South America due to small pox, etc etc

Hope you are doing lots of pooning in China.

What the guy failed to mention is that the so-called West (which includes Chile according to him) due to colonization as well as having bigger guns in the last 500 yrs, is one of big reasons why the West has dominated economically during that period. As far as I can tell, the West still has the bigger guns...

 

[normisanas]

I must be missing something because I didn't see any horrific consequences arising from Professor Ferguson's projections. The world is going to get more competitive. Big surprise. Commodities are going to get more expensive. Who knew? Folks in the west will have to work harder for less. Been happening for most people here for at least a couple of decades already.

Now I really do wonder if you saw the whole thing. You made no mention of what he did about the Chinese hold on American debt, American military withdrawal and sudden decline into domestic violence, and the rise of an Islamic caliphate.

 

[normisanas]

Privatize the cleaning of the streets? let the private companies bid for street cleaning contracts. Put the workload off city managers. What about Privatizing translink? or let efficient companies run the transport system, like Hong Kong.

I am in China at the moment, have no access to youtube. Is the speaker Niall Ferguson? That euro-centric historian? I agree with some of his points, especially magna carta being the key to the rise of europe. But this guy keep saying it is society structure, and culture that made europeans so dominant, but in fact there are lots of factors, including geographic, the west's easy conquest of North and South America due to small pox, etc etc

Chose better historian to listen to, such as Jared Diamond, Gavin Menzies, Terence Mckenna instead of racist whiney fucks that are dwelling on the glory days of British colonialism. His book The west and the rest says itself, very arrogant. Hello? what about the east? what about islam? what about the cradile of civilization Africa? Being dominant for 500 years is only a little bleep in human history, please note that before the Middle Ages, UK was called barbarians by the Roman Empire.

I am very happy to finally see someone with real knowledge of this historian posting here, and am happy to see you seem to be well read on these matters.

I do believe he borders on racist, but what is alarming is how convincing he is and how much what he says makes perfect sense - at least to Western ears; and that is the danger. I do agree with a great many of his points, though I dislike them.

He does take care of Islam in his talk here, and while for example the Moors conquered half of Spain for 900 years and while the Ottoman Empire ruled for about 1200 years (I think off the top of my head), nevertheless his focus was on why the West eventually conquered them all: yes, Arabic culture (or rather Islamic culture) brought us the number system, algebra and the dawn of modern mathematics, irrigation, the beginnings of the modern compass, etc., it was the West that gave us the scientific innovation that allowed its armies to create effective weapons, create ocean worthy vessels to explore and conquer continents, cure illnesses with new medicines, etc. It was the West that created the structures in society that enabled competition, and private property rights enshrined in law were also the creation of the West - and these things he argues effectively did allow the West to conquer almost the whole world.

500 years was enough to do it, even if it was just a small time in human history. What's astonishing was the rapid conquest, and even more rapid descent.

 

[normisanas]

What the guy failed to mention is that the so-called West (which includes Chile according to him) due to colonization as well as having bigger guns in the last 500 yrs, is one of big reasons why the West has dominated economically during that period. As far as I can tell, the West still has the bigger guns...

But I think you're missing his point then, which is that due to bigger guns and due to colonization, the West dominated economically - but that these things were the product of uniquely Western innovations that he enumerated as a number of specific "killer apps".

 

[Ray]

Ottoman Empire ruled for about 1200 years (I think off the top of my head),

Good guess, but it was only 700 years. 13th century to 20th.

the West that gave us the scientific innovation that allowed its armies to create effective weapons,

During 'our' medieval era, the Eastern world developed and used the trebuchet, the siege cannon, rocket artillery, and other weapons systems that have long since disappeared from history. The Mongols devastated any society they came up against.

the West eventually conquered them all

The Turks were never conquered, even though the Ottoman Empire collapsed.

create ocean worthy vessels to explore and conquer continents,

Chinese Admiral Zheng He sailed on some mighty large ships. It was a political decision to turn the Chinese Empire inward, not military defeat.

I did not view the video because I don't have that much time on my hands, but I have heard of the commentator and his views.
It is hard to argue against the idea that the 'west' prospered because of a set of values that are unique from the rest of the world. A society or groups of societies that is based on the betterment of the average person, where a person can improve on their lot regardless of tribe, creed, color, or religion, where everyone is treated equally, is always going to be a better society where one can only get ahead based on which tribe you belong to. There is an incentive to try something, to innovate, because you can get personally rewarded for it, as opposed to innovation that won't reward you but rewards the ruling families.

Over the last 500 years, the west has been exceptionally dominant in every regard, but it's no different from history where different societies at different points in time were extremely dominant for a certain time, then were surpassed by others.
Where is Greece now, or Rome? Same place as Persia. Our turn will come where others will at some point overtake us.

My view is that 'civilization' is not a geographical concept, but an idea. Different societies will at different times embrace the concept of 'civilization', and they will prosper because of it.
There was a time when the Muslim world was 'civilized'. Relatively speaking. It was a long time ago. China is getting there.

 

[wilde]

But I think you're missing his point then, which is that due to bigger guns and due to colonization, the West dominated economically - but that these things were the product of uniquely Western innovations that he enumerated as a number of specific "killer apps".

I was browsing SPs' ads when that bit was on and wasn't paying much attention, didn't remember much other than him trying to make some lame jokes. What are those (was it) 5 killer apps again?

 

[Tugela]

The rest of the world can't develop to the extent of the west simply because there are not enough natural resources, particularly energy, to do that. The nature of society is going to change fundamentally in the lifetimes of people alive today because critical resources required to drive our current culture are going to run low.

There will be a different type of civilization, one that is advanced but much less relaint on consumption of natural non-renewable resources. Where the seat of power in those sorts of economies will end up is unpredictable, but one thing you can be sure about is that population numbers will be more of a disadvantage than an advantage. With our current economy you need numbers to fuel growth, but that growth is dependent on the availability of resources. Countries that will move well into the new era will be those with small populations and a high overall state of development. Countries with large populations and a low overall state of development, such as China or India, will be faced with a very serious management problem. Their issue going forward is that they simply have too many people. Countries with small populations, but with high population densities and low development levels will face similar problems, but on smaller scales.

Any economy that is driven by consumption of natural resources is going to hit this brick wall. Whether or not they get past that will depend on if they are developed enough and sophisticated enough to adapt. Societies with a culture of cooperation will be the ones that do best.

The US will have the same problem IMO, their main issue is going to be a cultural one, I don't think that they as a nation will be able to adapt to the new reality.