At this point it looks likely that schools won't be back in before September, so I'm kind of planning around the belief that it will strech at least that long.
So how long do you think this will last?
- Thread starter johnnydepth
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I say after Labour Day weekend things will start to return to "normal", but Dr. Henry warns of a resurgence in the fall, so that makes me afraid of the unknown.
I agree.. September, or maybe even a bit beyond that because if a 2nd wave does ignite, all bets are off and I think -- the sporting world -- the upcoming NHL season could very much again get postponed. Or, unless, things are settled to the point that they can play to an empty arena. Baseball, imho, may be done, unfortunately. If they come up with a vaccine of some sort, then, there's a chance.
But all upcoming summer events are pretty much toast. PNE as well....funny how that hasn't been talked about. Unless, I missed it.
But all upcoming summer events are pretty much toast. PNE as well....funny how that hasn't been talked about. Unless, I missed it.
It would be nice if this clears up by fall, and remains cleared up, but I wouldn't bet on it.
Another question is... how long can we shut down the world economy for before absolute hell breaks loose? People are beginning to get desperate already, I've seen people shoplifting food from stores, B&Es are increasing, and I've encountered a few aggressive panhandlers over the past week.
It's a noble act to try to protect people from the virus, but the economic fallout will be quite nasty as well. Damned if we do, damned if we don't...
Another question is... how long can we shut down the world economy for before absolute hell breaks loose? People are beginning to get desperate already, I've seen people shoplifting food from stores, B&Es are increasing, and I've encountered a few aggressive panhandlers over the past week.
It's a noble act to try to protect people from the virus, but the economic fallout will be quite nasty as well. Damned if we do, damned if we don't...
Maybe if the people who get exposed and survive develop immunity from further infection, and/or an effective vaccine gets developed soon
Problem with vaccines is they shouldn't be rushed too quickly, proper safety trials need to be done lest the cure is worse than the virus itself..
Problem with vaccines is they shouldn't be rushed too quickly, proper safety trials need to be done lest the cure is worse than the virus itself..
Covid-19 will be around a long time and developing herd immunity is not the best approach because of the cost in human lives.
Medical science (drugs, protocols) will be developed in the near term (by fall) to deal with the worst of it, reducing the strain on the hospitals. Lots of work happening to reduce medical impact.
Eventually several vaccines will be developed to deal with the Covid-19 variants but that happens after a couple of years.
Medical science (drugs, protocols) will be developed in the near term (by fall) to deal with the worst of it, reducing the strain on the hospitals. Lots of work happening to reduce medical impact.
Eventually several vaccines will be developed to deal with the Covid-19 variants but that happens after a couple of years.
I'd speculate that limited restrictions will be in place by mid-July or so to "re-open", such as advising against at-risk population (elders, immunocompromised, etc.) from going out, limiting the size of public gatherings, continued use of face masks..... I imagine these will continue until fall or end of the year, at which point the vaccine will hopefully almost be ready. North American sports leagues are done for this season unless they are able to take drastic measures to finish the se
I think a big challenge is that we aren't likely to have reliable data (testing) to inform health officials of risk levels. So while I see a loosening up of some elements of society by late summer, I don't see the return to large gathering events for a long time.
The worldwide stock market indices have always been a great economic leading indicator. And currently, the wild swings that are occurring worldwide are factoring a lot of uncertainty imho. Its obvious case but it is telling us that we are far from being out of the woods. A couple of quarters out will extremely define the devastation created. And then the recovery, we hope, begins, which would take us into 2021. Again, we hope.
The other side of the coin is that there are many websites / shows indicating this is all orchestrated etc etc. Who really know. Maybe the 1%'ers?
When it's all said and done, we are nothing but " system supporters ".
The other side of the coin is that there are many websites / shows indicating this is all orchestrated etc etc. Who really know. Maybe the 1%'ers?
When it's all said and done, we are nothing but " system supporters ".
A fair and valid point. I think in Canada, much of what will be attempted will be based off of countries that may have tried the same things prior - Taiwan, South Korea, and to a much lesser extent China, etc.
Using market indices as an economic leading indicator in this scenario is bizarre at best. The volatility is basically telling you investors have no fucking clue what is happening and it's pure speculation. While investors have a grasp of most things rational, there's still plenty of known unknowns that aren't priced into the markets, let alone unknown unknowns.
That's exactly why I wrote above....a couple of quarters out and then, hopefully, a recovery. Again, we hope. Yes, the volatility tells us exactly what is happening which is the unknown at this point. I personally, think that there will be more downside soon.
Until this Virus is contained, it's a crapshoot right now.
Until this Virus is contained, it's a crapshoot right now.
The stock market is never a "leading indicator" of how an economy might fair in the future (near or long term). Movements in the stock market are the result of market participants reacting to information (and information is always coming in and is always changing, pandemic or not). If you want "leading indicators" look at industrial output, new housing starts, interest rates (and by extension the bond market) - but not the stock market. A simple analogy, the stock market is like a spot market - it only tells you what the price is at this point in time, it doesn't predict what the price will be tomorrow, one week from now, one month from now, etc. Seriously, do you use the spot price of gold to make a prediction of the price of gold 6 months from now? I guess you could, but that truly is pure speculation - as is using the stock market as a "leading indicator." Using a spot market as a "leading indicator" is like saying "the price of gold is determined by the price of gold" - that's asinine. The price of gold is the price of gold and that price is determined by, well, supply and demand. To try and predict what the price of gold might be in the future requires one to analyze/attempt to predict what may cause changes in the supply and demand of gold and to aggregate and quantify those effects on the price of gold. With a name like "equity market investor" one would assume you know what an actual leading indicator is.
Yes, I am very aware of leading indicators. And stock price & Indice movements, yes are day to day, but longer term they do forecast a pretty accurate scenario. For example, in the current environment, certain large retailers that are performing well tells us that their company balance sheet ( earnings ) are still solid and with no interruptions...currently and yes -- speculation. We all know whats happening in the retail sector, BUT, take a look at Costco stock for example and have you been to a Costco store(s) lately? Theya er doing damn good! Have you seen the oil and gas sector and what Brent and WTI have done to company share prices? There a number of Oil and gas companies that are on the verge of bankruptcy due to all of this occurrence and....share prices are showing it. Plus, many are cutting staff, reducing dividends etc. Again, reflection what it going on and share prices indicate that.
The points that you indicated, industrial outputs, housing starts, yes, I agree, they are a good indicator too but, what I'm saying is that, that is another sector of the economy. Its hard to explain it on this but, what I see in terms of reports, charts, economic indicators what I do etc. That, too me, tells me something different. I'm sure Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, Sir John templeton, etc would and could explain it much better lol.
Here is a good link as indicators. Be safe out there.
https://www.moneycrashers.com/leading-lagging-economic-indicators/
The points that you indicated, industrial outputs, housing starts, yes, I agree, they are a good indicator too but, what I'm saying is that, that is another sector of the economy. Its hard to explain it on this but, what I see in terms of reports, charts, economic indicators what I do etc. That, too me, tells me something different. I'm sure Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, Sir John templeton, etc would and could explain it much better lol.
Here is a good link as indicators. Be safe out there.
https://www.moneycrashers.com/leading-lagging-economic-indicators/
