Asian Fever

recession

wess

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everytime someone losses a buck on the market , someone makes a buck.
i dont play the market anymore but a freind has been playing it strong and has made over 1/4 mill in past 2 months. he says it is so predicable and never been easier.
he sold the day before inaguaration of obama and the bottom dropped...as predicted... he bought again and next day boom up it went, again predictable.
A quarter million in principle appreciation overe 2 months in a bear market like this? He must be day trading with 10 million dallars principle. I wish i was his broker. :D :D

Maybe i am. I own some bank stocks.
 

wess

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You are ignoring the fact that the USA has bought ownership of 2 of the banks and lent money to the others. The Obama administration is not going to allow a return to the interest rates of the 1970s.

This means that the American Dollar is going to drop against most currencies. (NOT the Canadian Dollar because Canada does 86% of it's trade with the USA)

The Obama administration is also going to be buying toxic mortgages. This will have the effect of shoring up house prices. That sounds like a good thing, but actually isn't.

Since the Americans already owe about 15Trillion in direct government debt and and 53Trillion in indirect government debt, just about any American Bond on the market is only going to repay about 50% of the purchase price expressed in 2008 dollars.

The Depression lasted from 1929 to 1938, this depression will likely also last for about the same amount of time.

There aren't a lot of companies that make sense as an investment right now. For the day traders, it's a perfect market because they can count on a continuous series of Mutual Funds being forced to cash out and then the shares rising in value as the uninformed pick them up. For the long term stock holder, there isn't anything that is going to be worth it's purchase price this time next year.

Once the forced sales of stocks held by Mutual Funds has worked it's way through the system, there will be some stability and the chance to pick up shares in companies that will retain their value.
Japan has tried everything that Obama is perposing and none of it has worked and has actually backfired.

Who the hell is advising this guy? His ideas are a carbon copy of Japans ideas ever since 1992. Endless stimulus packages and public works projects. This guy needs to read up on Austrian economic theroy. I am a firm believer in Austrian economics.
 

Cosmo

Riddle's unwrapped enigma
Jul 30, 2003
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You are ignoring the fact that the USA has bought ownership of 2 of the banks and lent money to the others. The Obama administration is not going to allow a return to the interest rates of the 1970s.
Not going to allow it????

How else would you stop hyperinflation?

Not only will they allow it... it is THE method to control run-a-way inflation.

Speaking of ownership of U.S. ownership of 2 banks.

A stunning topic is slowly gathering steam in the United States and it's very discussion is bound to send shockwaves through the financial community in the coming weeks.

The Financial Post wrote about it yesterday under the following headline (click headline to link to story): Investors beware: U.S. banks may be nationalized.

A short summary of the article:

As losses mount for U.S. banks, concerns that the banking sector could prove to be insolvent are raising alarm bells. Investors are being warned that they should not rule out full nationalization of banks, a move that would result in complete loss of equity capital for those with a stake in any U.S. bank.

Back in October, the IMF estimated, in its Global Financial Stability Report, that bank losses on a global basis were roughly $750-billion out of a total pool of US$12.37-trillion in outstanding unsecuritized loans. As a rough estimate, U.S. banks account for half of those losses.

Since October, as economies worsen, loan losses have increased dramatically. Economist Nouriel Roubini predicts U.S. banks to ultimately suffer losses of US $1.1-trillion on outstanding pools of loans.

In response, President Obama's economics team will likely unveil its plan for creating an "aggregator bank" for purchasing "illiquid assets" from banks.

Recall that markets for many of these securities are illiquid and price discovery is difficult. Eventually this bank would sell off these assets as liquidity improved and prices hopefully rebounded.

This model would work even better under a scenario of bank nationalization as was the case in Sweden in the 1990s.


Various financial blogs and websites are begining to raise the alarm over this possible development.

It's quite possible that jittery investors might start dumping bank stock en mass next week when the markets open.

Who knows... maybe this is the trigger for a modern day run on the banks.

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On the topic of U.S. Banks, last year 29 failed. The reporting of this is always done on a Friday afternoon. Friday's are now jokingly referred to as 'Bank Failure Friday's' on some blogs.

Last Friday was, once again, Bank Failure Friday as failure #3 for 2009 occurred when 1st Centennial Bank of Redlands, CA went under.
 

wess

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While it is possible to slice and dice economic theory and give names to all the bits that don't work without other bits, (Look at all the names associated with an Anchor or the rigging of a Sailing Ship) there are really only 4 schools of economic theory.

Capitalism http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capitalism
Main Failing - Capitalists will sell anything, including their own children. Since Capitalism always results in just 2 classes, the very rich and the very poor, when allowed to run it's course - Capitalism always will end up with a revolution.

Socialism http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialism
Main Failing - Socialism doesn't reward the capable, so the capable always migrate elsewhere if they get the opportunity. As practiced in Russia, China and Cuba - Socialism acquired a group of overlords who held themselves apart while imposing Socialism's theory on those who couldn't escape. It's easy to visit Cuba where anyone who wants to see a Socialist Society in operation can witness the lack of innovation, the lack of pride, the refusal to work and the complete lack of capital. The Soviet Union fell, the Chinese have moved on into a mixed economic system. Only the Cubans still drive 1957 cars because they are frozen in a bubble of time.

Social Credit http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Credit
BC and Alberta both flirted with Social Credit governments, however we never saw Social Credit economic theory put into practice. Social Credit, to work, would need a National, Isolationist Economy to be tested. The economies of the world have always been too interconnected for that to be possible.

Austrian School http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_Economics
The main failing of the Austrian School is that it's a sort of Capitalism without rules. Since we already know that Capitalism will result in people selling their own children, there has never been a lot of takers on the idea of testing Austrian Economic Theory.

I don't believe it possible to govern a country and adhere to a pure form of any of the economic theories.

The USA and Canada, along with most of the Western Nations, has subscribed to Capitalism for the upper classes with Socialism for the lower classes.

Since the upper classes don't believe the money for the experiment in Socialism they are running for the lower classes should come from their purses; the experiment has finally failed. You can't run a welfare state where you have a high proportion of the population receiving benefits without contributing. Especially if the upper class is also not contributing.

I think the reason for the political panic and the demand by the upper class for unprecedented bailouts is that the upper class really hadn't realized the degree of interconnectedness in the World's economy. The upper class has discovered that they have nowhere to run. Always in the past, the upper class has been able to move elsewhere when they had stripped the value out of an area.
my comments on Austrian economics was mainly directed at the order in which it predicts the future. Austrian economics is dead on perfect with thair predictions on Japan and i think (hope its wrong) they will be right with the US. If so, you will see a sideways movment of the economy at best, just like Japan.
 

wess

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There is no possibility of us seeing just a sideways movement or stall in the economy.

There were a number of posters on this site talking about what was going to happen as long ago as 2005. Just as with the people like Dr. Nouriel Roubini, Jerry Pournelle or Dr. Martenson; nobody wanted to hear what they said. The mainstream media would call them "Dr Doom" or "die hard conservative" and proclaim them wrong. Exactly the same technique that is used against people that point out that Dr Hansen of NASA and Al Gore are wrong about Global Warming, it's causes and it's probable effects.

The reality is that there is less money available now. The artificial money that was created by the housing boom has gone the same place as the artificial money from the tech boom and if we go back in history the tulip boom.

In the past, civilization has been able to recover because the collapsing bubble only affected those who had money to invest. That's not the case now. We have governments that had banked their money in equity shares and mutual funds, most corporations had banked their money in commercial paper. We collectively decided that money must always be leveraged and created financial instruments so that even operating funds needed for that month's payroll could be "invested".

People are still refusing to accept that an 125 thousand dollar house is NOT worth 400 thousand. Over history a middle class house has always been worth 5 times the average wage. It has only been in the last few years that a middle class house has been priced as 7 times the JOINT income of the couple PLUS anticipated equity through a continuation of prices rising.

So, we have Trillions of dollars that has simply vanished. There is nothing that government can do to make those houses worth 400 thousand again. In fact, every attempt will just take badly needed money and throw it into that same black hole.

Then we have all the corporations that find themselves unable to meet their obligations because their operating funds were invested in those bad mortgages. Because those corporations can't meet their obligations, they will also vanish.

Couple that with Peak Oil, the cost of building alternative energy sources to replace oil, the fact that the taxpayer has for years insisted that infrastructure not be replaced/renewed, the fact that the consumer has for years insisted that they want inexpensive products from elsewhere and the NIMBY people who insisted that they didn't want noisy, smelly industry near their homes and we have the perfect economic storm.

By the time people start realizing that the way to create jobs near home is to allow industry, there won't be any capital to fund the creation of that industry.

I say that because it's obvious from the media reports that the politicians and media still think that there is an easy, clean fix that can be applied.
The one thing i dont understand is why somthing was not done about it before this point.

There had to be some people in the federal reserve that knew this was going to happen. I think they wanted it to happen for some reason. I still dont know why they wanted it to happen. Maybe they over-shot there goal because this is too big for anyone to want it to happen. The fed fat cats have lost money too, dont kidd yourself.
 

wess

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alinburnaby

Im not saying i disagree with your negative outlook on the economy but i have a couple points.

Gold has clearly not ran away with the money like it should if what you are saying is that bad.

The amount of houses that were bought and sold or remorgaged AFTER the year 2000 are the only ones effecting the books. We need a chart showing the total amount of houses vs the amount dealt post 2000.

Oil was a speculation driven boom that had nothing to do with the amount of oil available. Oil will be available for the next 100 years atleast.

Lots of big companies have been halved in the stock market yet have no intentions of cutting dividends.
 

felix29

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Mar 26, 2004
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Im not saying i disagree with your negative outlook on the economy but i have a couple points.

Gold has clearly not ran away with the money like it should if what you are saying is that bad.
Gold has a very large paper market which can be manipulated very heavily. The price you pay to get physical gold right now is quite a bit higher then the spot price on the Comex
The amount of houses that were bought and sold or remorgaged AFTER the year 2000 are the only ones effecting the books. We need a chart showing the total amount of houses vs the amount dealt post 2000.
Dont know about Canada but at least 20% of mortgages in the US are now under water
Oil was a speculation driven boom that had nothing to do with the amount of oil available. Oil will be available for the next 100 years atleast.

Lots of big companies have been halved in the stock market yet have no intentions of cutting dividends.
For the simple reason it would kill their stock price, most are hoping some sort of government bailout will work
 

wess

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Gold has a very large paper market which can be manipulated very heavily. The price you pay to get physical gold right now is quite a bit higher then the spot price on the Comex Dont know about Canada but at least 20% of mortgages in the US are now under waterFor the simple reason it would kill their stock price, most are hoping some sort of government bailout will work
20% of mortgages could be under water but if the houses sold after 2000 only account for 10% of the total amount of houses in the US then the problem is overblown. I dont know the %, it could be worse then i think.

Who the hell knows, its just wierd that so many comparisons are made to the great depression but during the great depression there were normal people starving in the streets. That was bad.

Reddog seems to think socialism is the answer. I dunno about that:D
 

felix29

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Mar 26, 2004
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20% of mortgages could be under water but if the houses sold after 2000 only account for 10% of the total amount of houses in the US then the problem is overblown. I dont know the %, it could be worse then i think.

Who the hell knows, its just wierd that so many comparisons are made to the great depression but during the great depression there were normal people starving in the streets. That was bad.

Reddog seems to think socialism is the answer. I dunno about that:D

Are things as bad the the Great Depression, no, but think about why people are not starving in the streets.

We have social welfare programs, that provide a minumum level of income. Those programs also help prevent spending from dropping off a cliff, creating a further downward spiral
 

wess

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the US plan

The USA never seems to be in short supply of suckers to hold thair debt and untill that changes then this will not turn out as bad as everyone thinks.

The US is doing the same thing it did in the veitnam war era. Moneterise the dept(fuck my spelling). They will sell all the t-bills they need and then devalue the currency. So the debt holder will get paid but at the end of the day thair value will drop considerably. During the veitnam war only 10% of the dept was held outside the country, now its like 40%!
 

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Nov 18, 2003
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What would happen if everyone on the planet forgave all debts owed to them immediately? How would that affect the world economy?

The monetary system seems to me more like a control system where the rich controls the poor and makes sure they stay there and work hard, so that the rich can extract more from the poor. An unbreakable cycle is thus established.

What are the best ways to make sure the artificial paper currency that we have remain valuable or useful in a time of economic, political, and worldwide planetary uncertainty? Operate a farm and ranch to become self-sustaining food-wise, build an armory, renewable energy, ...?
 

felix29

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Mar 26, 2004
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What would happen if everyone on the planet forgave all debts owed to them immediately? How would that affect the world economy?

The monetary system seems to me more like a control system where the rich controls the poor and makes sure they stay there and work hard, so that the rich can extract more from the poor. An unbreakable cycle is thus established.

What are the best ways to make sure the artificial paper currency that we have remain valuable or useful in a time of economic, political, and worldwide planetary uncertainty? Operate a farm and ranch to become self-sustaining food-wise, build an armory, renewable energy, ...?
Well I would be better off, but the people who lent me money would not be
 

Cosmo

Riddle's unwrapped enigma
Jul 30, 2003
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What I have to say makes Cosmo look like a blinkin' optimist.
I am an optimist.

Understanding the current situation in a realist fashion allows you to make fortuitous moves.

Don't allow hope to cloud observation.
 

wess

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Jan 5, 2009
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What would happen if everyone on the planet forgave all debts owed to them immediately? How would that affect the world economy?

The monetary system seems to me more like a control system where the rich controls the poor and makes sure they stay there and work hard, so that the rich can extract more from the poor. An unbreakable cycle is thus established.

What are the best ways to make sure the artificial paper currency that we have remain valuable or useful in a time of economic, political, and worldwide planetary uncertainty? Operate a farm and ranch to become self-sustaining food-wise, build an armory, renewable energy, ...?
Most rich people have had or have huge debt loads. Lots of profitable companies are under huge debt.

What do you define as a " rich person " ??

a rich person that doesnt work according to you.:confused:
 

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Nov 18, 2003
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The first part of the answer is there isn't any such thing as money without debt, all money is created in direct proportion to debt. Therefore, if there was no debt - there would be no money.
The first part of the answer is there isn't any such thing as money without debt, all money is created in direct proportion to debt. Therefore, if there was no debt - there would be no money.
I don't quite understand this, but what is the second part of the answer? If someone owes me money, and I say forget about it, and banks tell their customers they no longer have to pay morgage payments. All past due credit card and bill payments are forgiven. What happens then? Will money somehow disappear?


Most rich people have had or have huge debt loads. Lots of profitable companies are under huge debt.

What do you define as a " rich person " ??

a rich person that doesnt work according to you.:confused:
I guess I meant those rich enough that they don't have to work at all. I would not call people or companies having large cash flows but with enormous debts 'rich', as all that wealth could disappear overnight. I think I might have just answered my question--those with a lot of power to manipulate the market, the politics, and the state are truly rich.
 

felix29

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Mar 26, 2004
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I don't quite understand this, but what is the second part of the answer? If someone owes me money, and I say forget about it, and banks tell their customers they no longer have to pay morgage payments. All past due credit card and bill payments are forgiven. What happens then? Will money somehow disappear?
Under the fractional banking system yes. You have to remember that the banks generally loan out (in Canada) 10 dollars for every 1 dollar they in deposits/reserves. This means that for the economy, the 10 dollars that you deposited into the RBC will eventually become 100 dollars when lent out, increasing the money supply by $90. Now if the people who borrowed the $100 dollars pay it back, the money supply shrinks by 90$. So yes the majority of money in todays fiat currency system is actually debt, and goes away as debt it paid back
I guess I meant those rich enough that they don't have to work at all. I would not call people or companies having large cash flows but with enormous debts 'rich', as all that wealth could disappear overnight. I think I might have just answered my question--those with a lot of power to manipulate the market, the politics, and the state are truly rich.
 

ChineseDude

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Feb 7, 2008
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Actually wess I don't think socialism is the answer. And we know now that capitalism isn't either.:D

Seriously, I think we need to forget about what we've had and get with the reality that the only thing that could possibly work would be a system that emphasized downscaling everything so that we could live sustainably.

Wealth comes only from what the planet provides: energy, food, water etc. People manipulate these things and we think they've created wealth. Wealth is like the law of the conservation of energy: energy in a system may change forms but it can neither be created nor destroyed, i.e. it remains constant.

We may be past the tipping point already. I hope we're not, but think we really are. Some scientists have estimated the sustainable carrying capacity of the planet at 2 billion people. But we're already at 6 billion and headed for 8-9 billion in the next decade or so.

So what happens to a population whether it's Easter Islanders or fruit flies, when it far outstrips its resources? It crashes--hard! Think we'll be different? Why?
Sooner or later..massacres will become logical. People in the name of sustainability will start killing the less intelligents. I can see that coming from a mile away. Great read this thread.
 

InTheBum

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Dec 31, 2004
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Sooner or later..massacres will become logical. People in the name of sustainability will start killing the less intelligents. I can see that coming from a mile away. Great read this thread.

This is all part of the plan by the illuminati to take over complete control of the world. In fact, they are looking into creating viruses to kill billions and cut the world population down to 1 billion.

Everyone on this board is a puppet in life at best!
 

wiggely

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May 22, 2008
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firmly in my cheek when I said that.

Btw did anyone hear Garth Turner on the Bill Good show CKNW and CBC today?

His new book's called After the Crash and it is apparently "scary," (Bill Good's word). Turner himself says he's downsized his home,

Anyone who would believe Garth Turner .... just look t his credibility...finanace minister for how long....says he downsized his house ..hell when he was living in my city he was just renting he did not even own. He only spouts off with his predictions to sell books, what else do he do for a living?
This down turn or recession will be over in 5 to 7 years its going to take a long time to dig out from under all that GREED and over-leveraging. We just have to learn or relearn control over our urges to spend when we don't have the money.
 

wess

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This is all part of the plan by the illuminati to take over complete control of the world. In fact, they are looking into creating viruses to kill billions and cut the world population down to 1 billion.

Everyone on this board is a puppet in life at best!
you could not be more wrong. The desire to be weathy is what is running the world right now and killing a billion people is not a good business practice.

Were do you get this nonsense?
 
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