recession
- Thread starter maximus
- Start date
4 years. The US is printing too much money and will need to raise intrest rates in a couple years. You will be looking at 7-10% intrest if were lucky.
Many of my coworkers preach nonstop, about how the stock market will go down another 50%.
When I ask them if they are then invested in those Bear ETF's
(market goes down, you make money)
they never are
haha im in Bull ETF's at a ridiculous price. Average share price of $8.23 baby
The next 1-2 years are going to be a bitch, then slowly things will improve.
About 3-4 years before we are on the good side again.
Who knows.....if something else pops up, terrorist attack, political scandal, financial missdoings....it could go anywhere.
Thankfully Western Canada is about the best place in North America if not the world to weather this mess.
About 3-4 years before we are on the good side again.
Who knows.....if something else pops up, terrorist attack, political scandal, financial missdoings....it could go anywhere.
Thankfully Western Canada is about the best place in North America if not the world to weather this mess.
The untouchable Microsoft is planning to lay off 5,000. That means for every job they cut it amouts to 2 to 3 additional lost. Same with Boeing estimates. Those are high paying employers. In Wa State, everyone is hurting.
Car dealers are hurting so bad, the local VW dealer let me borrow a new GTI overnight just to try and make a deal. This is for a sporty car!
Car dealers are hurting so bad, the local VW dealer let me borrow a new GTI overnight just to try and make a deal. This is for a sporty car!
Well harper and friends said we had nothing to worry, we were ready. Then he said that we need to act quickly to avoid this recession. Then he said that they had under estimated the degree of the recession. They then predicted gnp to stay at no growth and even 0.9 percent growth. Today they feel that the gnp will decrease by 4.9 percent. This is not good, the americans are at 6.9 percent decline and we are just predicting a 4.9 percent drop. We will be hit #1 housing ( duh ) half price by olympics and a possibility of it picking up after that. #2 unemployment is 6 percent in canada and will drop to 10 percent. #3 Inflation due to deficit spending means we can buy less shit now. These 3 factors will have a deep effect on canadians. Our dollar is not very good compared to the euro, and if shit doesnt get fixed we will c the north american union soon with the new currency the amero as mexico and canada will have to bail out the states.
Will the recession be ending soon?
Short answer? No.
Warren Buffet, American investor, businessman, philanthropist and one of the world's most successful investors, offered these comments on the short term outlook for the economy this evening in a PBS Interview on Nightly Business Report.
He said, "If you think that (Barack Obama) can turn things around in a month or three months or six months and there’s going to be some magical transformation since he took office on the 20th that can’t happen and wouldn’t happen. So you don’t want to get into Superman-type expectations..."
"I was telling him (Obama) business was going to be awful during the election period and that we were coming up in November to a terrible economic scene which would be even worse probably when he got inaugurated. So far I’ve been either lucky or right on that."
"We’ve had to get the credit system partially fixed in order for the economy to have a chance of starting to turn around. But there’s no magic bullet on this. They’re going to throw everything from the government they can in. As I said, the Treasury is going all in, the Fed and they have to and that isn’t necessarily going to produce anything dramatic in the short term at all."
"The important thing to do now is to figure out how we get the American economy restarted and that’s not going to be easy and its not going to be soon."
"Will fiscal stimulus (from the government) work? The answer is nobody knows. The economists don’t know. All you know is you throw everything at it and whether it’s more effective if you’re fighting a fire to be concentrating the water flow on this part or that part. You’re going to use every weapon you have in fighting it. And people, they do not know exactly what the effects are. Economists like to talk about it, but in the end they’ve been very, very wrong and most of them in recent years on this. We don’t know the perfect answers on it. What we do know is to stand by and do nothing is a terrible mistake or to follow Hoover-like policies would be a mistake and we don’t know how effective in the short run this will be and how quickly things will right themselves..."
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I made a post a few months ago about recession vs depression and the tipping point.
Search my past posts and you will find it.
We are very near that tipping point now.
Even the Prime Minister publically made a comment to this effect several weeks ago.
Short answer? No.
Warren Buffet, American investor, businessman, philanthropist and one of the world's most successful investors, offered these comments on the short term outlook for the economy this evening in a PBS Interview on Nightly Business Report.
He said, "If you think that (Barack Obama) can turn things around in a month or three months or six months and there’s going to be some magical transformation since he took office on the 20th that can’t happen and wouldn’t happen. So you don’t want to get into Superman-type expectations..."
"I was telling him (Obama) business was going to be awful during the election period and that we were coming up in November to a terrible economic scene which would be even worse probably when he got inaugurated. So far I’ve been either lucky or right on that."
"We’ve had to get the credit system partially fixed in order for the economy to have a chance of starting to turn around. But there’s no magic bullet on this. They’re going to throw everything from the government they can in. As I said, the Treasury is going all in, the Fed and they have to and that isn’t necessarily going to produce anything dramatic in the short term at all."
"The important thing to do now is to figure out how we get the American economy restarted and that’s not going to be easy and its not going to be soon."
"Will fiscal stimulus (from the government) work? The answer is nobody knows. The economists don’t know. All you know is you throw everything at it and whether it’s more effective if you’re fighting a fire to be concentrating the water flow on this part or that part. You’re going to use every weapon you have in fighting it. And people, they do not know exactly what the effects are. Economists like to talk about it, but in the end they’ve been very, very wrong and most of them in recent years on this. We don’t know the perfect answers on it. What we do know is to stand by and do nothing is a terrible mistake or to follow Hoover-like policies would be a mistake and we don’t know how effective in the short run this will be and how quickly things will right themselves..."
========================
I made a post a few months ago about recession vs depression and the tipping point.
Search my past posts and you will find it.
We are very near that tipping point now.
Even the Prime Minister publically made a comment to this effect several weeks ago.
Oh... it will dive far more than that.
Every economist worth his salt is sounding alarm bells about the amount of money being thrown into the financial crisis.
It's a short term solution... but it's the long term that is the worry.
When this deep recession/depression ends (and it will end) and we swing out of it... there will be a ton of liquidity around after all the deleveraging.
The worst of all possible worlds is declining purchasing power combined with high unemployment and rising prices.
This is 1970s-style stagflation.
But because inflation numbers have been understated for years, and money supply is set to increase at unprecedented rates, this time it could intensify into a hyperinflationary depression.
In the early 1980s, the actual interest rates for Lower Mainland families was 22% (prime was 19.5%).
A return to 1970s style inflation (which is what the alarm bells from the economists are all about) will result in a return to sky high mortgage interest rates once again.
Even if interest rates ONLY soared to 15%, the result will devestate housing prices.
Consider... in order to have the same monthly payment on a $650,000 dollar mortgage today (todays five year fixed rate is set at 4.79%), the mortgage amount would have to drop to $250,000 (on a mortgage at 15%).
It means no one will be able to afford to assume a $650,000 mortgage.
If you want to sell your house, that $650,000 price tag will HAVE to fall to at least $250,000 if you hope to ever find someone who can afford to buy it.
And any shmuck who still has a large mortgage and has to renew under those conditions? Well the monthly payments on that $650,000 will be over $7,000 per month when renewed at 15% (can you say default and foreclosure?).
If you knew that the $650,000 house you were thinking of buying today would only be able to fetch you $250,000 5-7 years from now, would you buy it?
Not a chance in hell.
And that's why Real Estate sales will plummet and fall off the charts this year.
Only a fool would assume such a large mortgage with these economic storm clouds on the horizon.
(and yes, I know there are a lot of fools out there... the month of January is averaging 52 sales a day. Devestating number from the sales end of the equation [January is setting up to be a brutal sales month], but there are still 52 fools a day out there).
LOL...
And as always, I stress there is a lot of positive things here. A lot of fortunes were lost in the late 1970s/early 1980s... but a significant number of fortunes were also made.
There is great opportunity now and on the horizon.
I've always wondered, after George W. took office and the whole tech crash, the media have always portrayed the US as a slumping economy, factories closing down, people out of work for like 8 years.... and now we're entering a deep recession.... it's awfully confusing....
Particularly when republicans and other conservative type parties campaign on being good for business.I've always wondered, after George W. took office and the whole tech crash, the media have always portrayed the US as a slumping economy, factories closing down, people out of work for like 8 years.... and now we're entering a deep recession.... it's awfully confusing....
And to answer the question, no one knows when this will end, just as no one knew it was coming. The same economists that are making predictions are the ones who told us to expect $200 oil. They make weathermen look good.
most definitely wait. Although the volatility and the range that some of these stocks move every day makes it a great time to be a day trader(if you know what you're doingTranslated to: Should I invest in the stock market now or wait?...
)Thats never going to happen. The reason it fell that much in the 20s was because there was way more people borowing money to put on the stock market. Companies were even investing all thair profits in the stock market then too.Many of my coworkers preach nonstop, about how the stock market will go down another 50%.
When I ask them if they are then invested in those Bear ETF's
(market goes down, you make money)
they never are
