Now that the Election is real, who will you vote for?

[Makhno]

Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose

Lets take a walk down memory lane.

Chretien and his Liberal coterie came to power in 1993 promising to clean up the Conservative ethical decay, but ended up making Mulroney look like Mother Theresa.

The Liberals now have the same political stench about them the Brian Mulroney/Kim Campbell Tories had in 1993 after nine years in power and two straight majorities .

Consider this opening passage from Chretien's red book of election promises on "Governing with Integrity," back when he was running against the Tories who had just replaced Mulroney with Campbell, as the Liberals have now replaced Chretien with Martin.

"Canadians have always prided themselves on the quality of their democratic institutions. Yet after nine years of Conservative rule, cynicism about public institutions, governments, politicians and the political process is at an all-time high. If government is to play a positive role in society, as it must, honesty and integrity in our political institutions must be restored.

Substitute 10 years of Liberal rule for nine years of Tory power and you have a good description of the way many voters feel about the federal Liberals now.

The Liberals, who came into power campaigning against political corruption, have become the architects and enablers of the very corruption they once denounced.

The sad part is that if the Conservatives win this time, we'll be having the exact same discussion next decade but again reversing the players.

And guess who gets fucked in the interim?

 

[qwerty]

Vote for me!!!!! No bullshit here I WILL spend your tax dollars to indulge in the lifestyle that I feel everyone 'should' be entitled to.

I'll spend millions making sure every major city has an NHL franchise with an unlimited budget paid for by your tax dollars.

A DAILY trip to your local SP will be covered by medicare.

I will tax the hell out of everyone making more than $100000, and anyone making less will pay nothing in taxes.

I will adopt a no harm, no foul policy whereas any crime that doesn't cause anyone but yourself harm will no longer be a crime (ie. drugs, a visit to your local SP, etc.)

I will raise the minimum wage to $20/hr and cut off welfare to people who 'refuse' to get jobs.

I will increase military spending in order to liberate the american people from the tyranny they endure under the control of the evil Mr. Bush and his gang of 'evil-doers', as they are a threat to our national interest.

Or you could just vote for the same old, same old.

 

[Makhno]

Polls suggest Liberals facing minority

Minority looming, polls say
Seat projection suggests heavy Liberal losses in Ont., B.C., Que.

Robert Fife
CanWest News Service
May 29, 2004

OTTAWA - The federal Liberals are poised to become a minority government with only 135 seats, 20 seats below majority level, according to new poll projections.

Barry Kay, a political science professor at Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ont., projected a Liberal minority based on seat projections derived from a sample of 7,400 Canadians surveyed recently by five major polling companies.

The Conservatives would win 98 seats, according to the seat projection compiled for Global National, while the Bloc Quebecois would win 54 and the New Democrats 21. The Liberals need 155 seats to capture a majority in the June 28 election.

The projections, and a succession of polls that show the Liberals with less than 40% of popular support, have caused some party insiders to question whether Paul Martin should bring in a new campaign manager.

Dr. Kay said the Liberals, who held 168 seats in the Commons when Mr. Martin called the election, have seen their support in Ontario crumble in the past week, presumably because of the fallout from higher taxes imposed by the provincial Liberals in their recent budget. "In Ontario, there are a large number of seats that are very much now in jeopardy because of the change in public opinion. Ontario is the major reason for the difference."

According to Dr. Kay's projections, the Liberals would win only 67 seats in Ontario compared with 34 for the Conservatives and five for the NDP. When the election was called on May 23, the Liberals had 97 seats in Ontario, the Conservatives had four and the NDP had two.

Dr. Kay said the Liberals are also in trouble in British Columbia, where they had expected to win 19 of the 36 seats. Conservatives are now picking up strong support in the suburbs around Vancouver and would win 20 seats compared with 10 for the Liberals and six for the NDP under his projection.

"The Liberals' numbers have declined dramatically in British Columbia as well as in Ontario and they are now down to 10 in B.C., but not many weeks ago, they were at 19 seats," he said.

Dr. Kay said the Bloc Quebecois is poised to win 54 seats compared with 21 for the Liberals in Quebec.

In Alberta, the Tories would win 26 seats while the Liberals would win two. In the Prairie provinces, the Tories would win 12 seats, the Liberals 10 and the NDP nine.

The only region where Liberal support is strong is in the Atlantic provinces, where they would pick up 25 seats to six for the Tories and one for the NDP under Dr. Kay's projections.

The seat projections are based on a model that compares current popular support for a party in six major regions to its popular support in the 2000 election. It then takes the number of seats won in a region in the 2000 election and adjusts the number according to the difference in current popular support.

Dr. Kay's model, which incorporates poll results from companies such as COMPAS, Ipsos-Reid and Decima, also takes into account factors such as incumbency, recent by-election results, and the strength of a party's leadership.

During the past six federal elections it has had an accuracy level within five seats per party per election.

If Dr. Kay's projections hold true, the election call will have turned out to be a major mistake for a Prime Minister who was once expected to coast to a solid majority, and some Liberals are privately discussing the need for Mr. Martin to remove David Herle as campaign manager.

 

[Makhno]

Voters respond to Martin's call with one of their own....

 

[CaryGrant]

The projections, and a succession of polls that show the Liberals with less than 40% of popular support, have caused some party insiders to question whether Paul Martin should bring in a new campaign manager.

Yeah, that's what Martin needs, a new campaign manager. That's what's wrong with the Liberals.

I still say we need a Canadian Gandhi, perhaps called Candhi, or Candy for ease of spelling. I hereby nominate Candy as the moral conscience of Canada.

 

[wolverine]

Those lips on the Seduction Unlimited webpage scare me.

 

[qwerty]

Until tonight I honsetly did not know who the leaders of the other 2 parties were. I got introduced to them via their ads during the hockey game. I will never go so far as to say that I trust a politician, but I was impressed by the presence of the NDP leader Mr. Layton. If I were inclined to pick an alternative to the Liberals I'd probably vote for him.

However, that harper guy..... is he gay????(not that that's really an issue but he seems about as masculin as Al Gore). Their only issue seems to be that they are going to cut taxes, which only ever seem to favour the rich and cost us the ability to maintain 'essential'(my opinion) programs such as health care and old age pension. And increasing military spending (where would that money come from) which leads me to believe they would be inclined to join in on future conflicts the Americans get themselves into.

Canadians are PEACE KEEPERS, lets keep it that way. Please if you are just voting to get rid of the Liberals think about the NDP, the Conservatives scare me.

 

[wolverine]

Earlier this week, Jack Layton announced that he wants to impose big tax hikes on the wealthy. You know, if I was a multimillionaire and Layton became prime minister, I'd take my money and companies and fuck off to the Carribbean. No more contributions to the Canadian economy; job losses; no more philanthropical endeavors such as sizable donations to charity or the arts.

 

[qwerty]

I think we should tax the rich. Most people with lots of money are there because of the hard work of people making $8/hr.

For example I work for a large multi-national company that employs about 4500 people in B.C. which consistantly makes huge profits. However they are constantly laying off people to bring in 'cheaper labour' and all that extra money just goes to the CEOs in way of bonuses. So I think people who make profits off of other peoples hard work should do their part in making sure the working class has a future in health care and CPP.

 

[Mr. Jones]

that rising tide ...

Yah Wolverine - I couldn't agree more - the wealthy - who create wealth for everyone in this country - so we can ALL pay our (too high) taxes would bugger off, alright - to the Caribbean or somewhere else. Qwerty - you need to know that economically speaking, a "rising tide carries all boats" - think about it!.

In any event, it seems that there are a fair # of intelligent PERBerts, given that the poll right now stands @ Tories 28 - Libs 23. Go Harper, go!

 

[Makhno]

Grendleaxe, your angst is shared by many, both here on PERB and in the real world.

A recent Environics Research Group poll conducted May 12-18 has some very revealing results:

• 58% of respondents replied as having either little or no confidence when asked "Do you have a great deal of confidence, some confidence, little confidence, or no confidence at all in political leaders."
• 75% of respondents agreed with the statement "You don't really expect that politicians will keep their election promises once they are in power. "
• 59% answered "own ambitions" to the question "Do you think that most politicians are in politics mainly because they want to do something good for the country or mainly because they want to advance their own ambitions? "
• 33% couldn't identify any leader as best able to lead an honest and trustworthy government.

A senior vice-president at Environics was quoted as saying this this is part of a larger problem. "On the honesty dimension, we're seeing a reflection of other polls, that indicate that Canadians are cynical about politics and politicians."

Duh.

IMHO the cynycism this time around is off the scale.

 

[wilde]

Re: that rising tide ...

Originally posted by Mr. Jones Qwerty - you need to know that economically speaking, a "rising tide carries all boats" - think about it!.

What school of economics does this rising tide BS come from? A rising tide carries all boats - only if you are stupid enough not to avoid the tide - think about it!

 

[Makhno]

That is why i don't have much use for political labels and the party system. Parties are controlled by unelected and unaccountable people whose very purpose is to offer one solution to the exclusion of all others.

Duff, you are dead on. We don't have independent critical thinkers in Parliament. We have sheep following the call of the shepherd.
MPs from all parties vote in solid blocs on almost every issue. Government members do so from a fear that a lost vote on a measure will be deemed by their prime minister as a loss of confidence. This stems from the early British concept that a government falls if it loses the support of a majority in the Commons on any vote.

Besides the threat of parliamentary dissolution, private members are also subject to rewards and punishments from party leadership, depending on how they vote. A 'loyal' MP who votes the party line will be a candidate for promotion (if in the government party, perhaps to Cabinet), or other benefits from the party, such as interesting trips or appointment to an interesting House committee. A 'disloyal' MP who votes against the party leadership may be prevented from ascending the political ladder and could ultimately be thrown out of the party caucus. In light of this, "caucus solidarity and my constituents be damned" might be the real oath of office for most honourable members in all political parties.

This is the major defect in Canadian Parliamentary democracy: most MPs are essentially brute votes who submit to any demand from their respective party whips.

Baaaaa.....

 

[qwerty]

Hifi, to me 'rich' in Canada is making in the neighborhood of $100000 or more. Though this is a small percentage of the people they actuall account for a large ammount of the tax dollars collected. Anytime a government calls for a tax cut it's only really a benefit to the wealthy. People on the low end of the scale save maybe a few hundred dollars, but the people on the higher end of the scale save tens of thousands of dollars.

A really good example of this is the Bush tax cut. the average American got 2-4 hundred in tax savings and the top 1% of wage earners saved more money than all of the other 99% paid in total taxes!!!!! If Bush was for 'the people' he could have left the taxes as were for the top 1% and cut the taxes from the rest all together.

Anyway back to us here in Canada, if there was a tax increase on the wealthy a couple of percentage points would suffice, we do pay a lot less now than when I first started paying taxes.(Thanks Jean) My earlier post which stated I'd 'tax the hell out of anyone making more than $100000' was only meant as a joke as there is no way I would ever get elected.

What we really need is an end to wastefull spending! But that will never happen no matter who gets into power as everyone has a different opinion of what is 'wasteful spending'

 

[qwerty]

38%-43%??? I mean basic federal tax. I used to pay around 29% 3-4 years ago now it's down to around 26%.(not a big dip but if you make $100000 thats $3000) What else are you factoring in to get your high tax #'s

 

[HankQuinlan]

Tax cuts are not meant to benefit wage earners; they are not meant for YOU. They are meant to benefit the very wealthy that support political parties, and who give politicians lucrative (but not time-consuming) positions as board members and what-not when they leave office.

The reason OUR taxes have gone up is because the tax burden has been shifting constantly over the last decades from businesses and corporations to wage earners. This is partly as above --- to benefit the rich, and --- I believe --- as a result of globalization. If a company doesn't get the tax breaks it wants, it moves to India or China or whereever. The basic trend is to equalize living standards around the world. If China or India can't affort socialized medicine, then neither can we. As their standard of living rises and their middle class increases in percentage of the population, our living standards will fall and our poverty levels will rise. If we can't measure up as consumers, so what? There are new people with jobs somewhere else that can afford to buy the crap that we used to be able to afford.

The Conservative tax cuts will not benefit YOU either; nor will they create extra jobs. They may keep a few jobs here a bit longer, though, until they migrate to somewhere else with lower costs.

Live with it, or find some way to fight it.

 

[Mr. Jones]

Platforms ...... (I'm not talking heels ...

Well ........ here I am on Monday am - head bloodied but but I'm definitely unbowed!

First of all - qwerty - I promise not to flame you if you promise the same - how's that for a truce offering?

Now on to my continuing education of you guys on poli / socio / economics.

It's a real pity that no one seems to have taken in the election series on CBC Radio 1's "The Current" (host Anna Maria Tramonti). She's pretty left wing - so those of you who know who you are should feel quite comfortable!

The most effective, articulate and sensible member of the panel on her first installment was the senior statesman of Canadian politics - Preston Manning. Those of you who will undoubtedly do a knee-jerk LMFAO at this claim have been sadly deluded by the media hatchet-job that Reform has invariably been subjected to.

The thrust of Preto's comments last week support what most of you are saying - there is a serious lack of trust in any politicians by the electorate - and for good reason. THEREFORE - we must change the system and introduce more checks and balances, as well as more opportunity for true grass-roots participatory democracy.

Bottom line - there is only ONE party whose has stated this in its platform and whose members have ethics to carry it out. Don't take my word for it (I know for sure that there are a few out there who won't! ).

Just as we admonish newbies on this site re another topic near-and-dear to our hearts - do your own research, guys. Don't allow yourself to be taken hostage by the media. Remember, it's always wise when you hear or read something, to consider not only what is claimed, but WHY the proponent is claiming it.

I'm sure I'll be hearing form some of you - have a nice week!

 

[Makhno]

New poll shows Liberals starting to freefall

Liberals virtually tied with Tories
Conservatives gain ground as Liberals suffer fallout of Ontario budget, party infighting

Robert Fife And Jack Aubry
CanWest News Service; with files from the Ottawa Citizen
May 31, 2004

OTTAWA - The Liberals are in a virtual tie with the Conservative party amid growing rancor within Liberal ranks for Prime Minister Paul Martin to make sweeping changes to his election campaign team.

A new public opinion survey by SES Research for CPAC -- Canada's parliamentary TV channel -- of 600 people on Friday and Saturday show Liberal support has plunged seven points to 34 per cent since the May 23 election call.

The Conservatives, led by Stephen Harper, are at 31 per cent, but with a plus and minus error of 4.1 per cent 19 times out of 20, pollster Nikita Nanos said the two parties are in a "statistical tie."

Nationally, the NDP are at 19 per cent and the Bloc Quebecois at 12 per cent.

The Liberal free-fall is largely attributed to the decision of Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty to break an election pledge not to raise taxes and to impose higher health premiums in the provincial budget.

"There is obviously some spillage on what is happening provincially to federally. It has to do with trust and the Liberal brand," Nanos said in an interview.

"Federally, the Liberals have just come off the advertising scandal. Now in the week they have launched their campaign, the provincial Liberals (in Ontario) broke many of their campaign promises, so you have a conjunction of Liberals and trust and really bad timing."

In the face of tumbling polls, two former Liberal cabinet ministers sounded a warning about the party's failing campaign. Former natural resources minister Herb Dhaliwal on Sunday urged Martin to clean out the Liberal election team, which he blames for running a bad campaign.

"I've said right from Day 1 that we are looking at a minority government," said Dhaliwal, who declined to run in this election. "(Martin) has serious problems, no doubt about it, and he has got to show that he is going to make changes."

Brian Tobin, another ex-Liberal minister, said Sunday Martin's election prospects aren't looking good with all signs pointing to a minority government.

Dhaliwal said Martin's team made a serious mistake in over-selling the new prime minister in the early days of the government, but that "he (Martin) has not met those expectations."

Dhaliwal added Martin's initial unwillingness to reach out to loyalists of former prime minister Jean Chretien is causing serious internal problems, and he levelled part of the blame on campaign co-chair David Herle.

Herle ran Martin's leadership campaign, but Dhaliwal questioned whether he has the ability to run a national election campaign.

"The very people that win you the leadership are not necessary the people who are going to win you the election," he said.

However, Liberal deputy campaign director Steve McKinnon said there are no plans for Herle to leave the campaign.

Dhaliwal added Herle should never have advised McGuinty on the budget that jacked up health premiums as high as $900 per person. Martin also admitted McGuinty told him about his plan to break an election pledge. But on Sunday, McGuinty said he spent just "20 seconds" giving the prime minister advance notice of the new health-care tax in Ontario's budget and that Paul Martin did not comment on the measure.

Liberal MPs say the fallout from McGuinty's budget has hurt them, and polls show party support crumbling in the province where the Liberals won 98 of the 103 seats in the last election.

A well-known southern Ontario MP, who is considered a strong Martinite, said he's been receiving panicky calls from fellow MPs who are upset at Herle and his team.

"They're a bunch of juvenile delinquents who don't seem capable of shooting straight. I'm not quite sure who the brain might be -- well I'm not quite sure there are any brains" he said, asking not to be named.

"They think they're pretty smart -- I think it's a group who have been in this leadership mode, and know how to count heads and that sort of thing, but now that they have arrived, they don't know what to do."

SURVEY SAYS

SES Research polled 600 Canadians between May 28 and May 30. Here are some of the results (may not add up to 100 per cent due to rounding):

- Decided voters (Change from May 25)

LIB -- 34 per cent (-7)

CON -- 31 per cent (+3)

NDP -- 19 per cent (+1)

BQ -- 12 per cent (+1)

GP -- three per cent (0)

- Twenty per cent are undecided (-1)

- Appetite for Change (Change)

Time for change -- 55 per cent (+3)

Liberals doing a good job -- 26 per cent (-2)

Agree with neither -- 11 per cent (0)

Unsure -- nine per cent (-1)

- Best PM (Change)

Martin -- 32 per cent (+1)

Unsure -- 22 per cent (-2)

Harper -- 17 per cent (0)

Layton -- 12 per cent (+3)

None -- 11 per cent (-5)

Duceppe -- seven per cent (+4)

 

[Makhno]

The real significance of the poll detailed in the above post is not that the Liberals and Conservatives are tied statistically now, but that 55% say it is "Time for change."

 

[Cock Throppled]

Every day a guy walks down a street and every day thew same man comes out, kicks him in the balls, rubs his face in the dirt and steals his money. The guy continues to go down this same street every day because if he goes down another street he may not get kicked in the balls or robbed, but he fears someone he doesn't know will maybe do something worse. This guy is called a Liberal voter. The logic escapes me.