I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the legal challenges that will be thrown up by the many 1st Nations peoples, even if the feds manage to win provincial approval, the costs of legal wrangling against the collective Chiefs will sink any pipeline.
Good point. The risk of FN court challenge is a significant risk, despite the claims of NEB that it "adequately" consulted with FNs during its panel hearings, despite the government's own three-member speacial panel (Kim Baird, Tony Penikett and Annette Trimbee) that Trudeau put in place to give the NEB's panel report a second look, refusing to declare the project in public interest, saying it was not on their mandate from the government. FN leaders have complained that adequate consultation, as required pursuant to s. 35 of the Constitution Act of Canada, has not been done. And, as I have said in one of my previous posts Tsleil-Waututh and Kwantlen Nations have already filed court challenges. If nothing else, court challenges erode investor confidence as they know court proceedings can drag on for years, especially on matters of Constitutional jurisdictions (s. 35). Plus, regulatory permitting is still a 100% provincial jurisdiction (and there will most likely be a new premier who is opposed to the Trans Mountain Expansion project).
All said and done, project could still be built, but one has to be out of mind to claim or declare that it will be built, like Rachel Notely did the other day. At least Trudeau retrained his rhetorics and only said that the project is in Canada's interest and he has a duty to balance economic growth and environmental protection.
Albertans like Rachel Notely and all the conservatives and their die-hard fans don't realize this one thing -- it's not about the carbon emissions and climate change that the British Columbians are scared about (afterall, it's not specifically only BC's concern; it's everybody's concern, despite the opinion expressed by Kinder Morgan's head that there is no evidence that climate change is caused by human actions). The risk to BC is not even so much from the pipeline and numerous watercourse crossings.
The main risk to BC is from the four-fold increase in Aframax marine tankers to 444 every year that would be in the narrow Burrard Inlet. Rachel Notely and the cons wouldn't give a damn if BC's coast were to see an Exxon Valdez of our own.
(Note: Some PERB members have noted that pipeline projects are within federal jurisdiction. Not all. They are within federal jurisdiction only if the pipeline crosses provincial or international border (like Trans Mountain, Northern Gateway, Keystone XL, etc.) or have a marine transportation component. There are many other pipelines that are entirely within BC (mostly natural gas pipeline from the Monteney shale gas formation in the North East BC that are strictly within BC's jurisdiction, regulated not by the National Energy Board, but by BC's own Oil and Gas Commission.)
Additional Note: In addition to the numerous provincial permits that is 100% within provincial jurisdiction, certain regulatory authorizations are within federal jurisdiction (e.g., those under Fisheries Act, Navigation Water Protection Act, etc.) Just thought I'd make that distinction.