BC Elections : Predictions Anyone?

[sdw]

Nothing is inevitable. The NDP/Greens have already formed an alliance, and are signing off on working together to form a viable government (as shaky as it may be).

The LG has an obligation to allow them to form a government once the Liberals lose a non-confidence vote.

Although the edge is razor thin, as long as the 44 vote as a block they can rule as long as needed.

And Storm Rider, get some Prozac and try to move on from the 18th century.

We'll see later today exactly what the NDP promised the Greens for their support. What is known is that the Greens aren't into compromise and a coalition government is all about compromise.

Christie gets to stay Premier until she is defeated on a vote of non-confidence on the Throne Speech or Budget. It's only after the non-confidence vote that the NDP can ask the LG to allow them to attempt to form a government. If the NDP does not have Proportional Representation in their Throne Speech, the Greens won't vote for it and the NDP won't have been able to form a government. That immediately requires an election. If Proportional Representation is included in the Throne Speech, a number of NDP members know how to read a map. If ridings are combined to create multi-member ridings - as is done in most nations that have Proportional Representation - a majority of NDP members are going to be in ridings where they cannot be certain of re-election. All they need to do to avoid that is "find themselves on the wrong side of a highway closure" or "miss a ferry" and the NDP/Green coalition losses the non-confidence vote.

 

[Damaged]

rumors are some of the liberal mla's are finally realizing that christy clark is the problem. her negative image basically cost the party the election. run a new leader with a better image and they could easily get there majority back. a fair amount of the vote was more directed at the hatred of christy clark.

This is how I feel. I still voted liberal but it would have been a much easier decision if there was someone else other than Christy heading the party.

...And Storm Rider, get some Prozac and try to move on from the 18th century.

Now that's funny!

 

[thodisipagal]

SR first the NDP and Greens have to defeat the incumbent Liberal government with a non-confidence vote. So, they have to vote against the Throne Speech or Budget. then the Lieutenant Governor has to refuse the Liberal's request for an immediate election. Only then can the NDP/Green coalition ask the Lieutenant Governor to allow them to form a government. That government will immediately lose the non-confidence vote brought by the Liberals. Which will then force an election because the Lieutenant Governor has already watched the Liberals be defeated in a non-confidence vote and they therefore cannot form a government.

So, Fall election or Winter election. Another election in 6 - 8 months is inevitable.

You are not considering the other option:

Christy could resign today at 1:30 pm, as she doesn't have a majority vote and the other two parties have an agreement for a NDP minority government.

 

[thodisipagal]

Christy is not resigning today. She'll stay on until June end.

 

[thodisipagal]

She will face the confidence of the legislature in June end. She's expected to lose a confidence motion. That'll end her political career.

She's could have exited gracefully today, instead of being dragged out crying in June. Her caucus will undoubtedly seek a leadership review is she doesn't step down from leadership in June. June is all she got.

 

[alcxd]

I guess the new green is orange :0

 

[storm rider]

I guess the new green is orange :0

In Alberta under the NDP and soon to be in BC "Orange is the new broke" so say farewell to balanced budgets and something as silly as fiscal responsibility and say hello to rampant cronyism and kickbacks.Not to mention poor governance and even detrimental development with regards to natural resources.First on the chopping block for the NDP/Green commie coalition is to stop the expansion of a pipeline that has existed for decades and has had no issues that I know of and the twinning of that already existing pipeline will be made with modern technology/metalurgy.Nope cant have that as it is shipping more oil and it is a sin against Mother Earth even though a pipeline is there now.This mindset comes straight from the NDP LEAP manifesto and it also the full belief of the Green Party with regards to "dirty oil" yet both of them and the wacked out nutjobs that support this have no problem with importing "unethical oil" from countries that have shady and even outright dictatorship governments with regards to human rights.

On a different tangent what will happen with the Site C dam?How many billions have been poured into it as well as how many billions of tons of concrete?Sure would make a lot of fucking sense to just shut it down and not complete it.Kind of like restoring a 1966 corvette in your garage and after the most expensive phase was over with you just plain said "aw fuck it" and had it shipped to an auto wrecker.

Once again I will ask if anybody has even had the incline/interest to LOOK at the NDP LEAP manifesto online or to request a hard copy of it to read???????

Pretty fucking stupid to support an extreme left wing party such as the NDP and not inform yourself of the Party's CORE beliefs and their main platform planks.It is written and was crafted by extreme left wing elitists who would answer the statement of the average Canadian worker saying "It is my money and I worked for it!" with "what a preposterous notion!!!!" and that mindset is held by ALL of them......work hard for your money and we will take what we want and give you back what we feel you deserve.

It is kind of like beating my head against a wall even posting this as I am talking to people on the "left coast".....a place where demonstrations etc happen to "protect mother earth" and maybe 2000 people show up and act angry and the like and protest just for the sake of doing so and 75% of them are on wellfare and the other 25% do so out of guilt from being rich and they drive their luxury cars to the protests.What is really fucked up is that the 2000 people represent less than 1 10th of 1% of the population of the GVRD and they expect the get representation on what matters to them.Less than a 10th of 1% of society fully expects the rest of society to bow to them and their ideology.The protests are a fucking joke to be honest.All of the participants are brain dead idiots and the ones that are not are paid activists taking money from the TIDES FOUNDATION......same as the Mayor of Vancouver.They all blab about the evils of climate change and say how CO2 levels are rising but if you present a fact such as that 475 million years ago CO2 levels were 8000 PPM and the Earth was fine and survived so the paltry 400 PPM of CO2 we currently have actually means that plants might be a little starved.

British Columbians did not reject Christy Clark.....at the same time she did not get a majority.Also they did not VOTE for an NDP/Green coalition as that was not on the ballot.,same as it was when those 3 POS's being Dion/Duceppe/Layton tried to hijack the Federal Government via a coalition when Harper got handed a minority and thanks to the media via the BS fiasco of the Listeriousis scare by Maple Leaf foods on the 2008 hustings.

All I can say is you wanted this.You wanted the BC Liberals gone and out of power.Well you get what you asked for and I do like to keep tabs on things like this so I will remind you all....when the NDP start running BC into the ground for the second fucking time......you wanted this shit suit....now you get to wear it.

SR

 

[sdw]

You are not considering the other option:

Christy could resign today at 1:30 pm, as she doesn't have a majority vote and the other two parties have an agreement for a NDP minority government.

I knew that I didn't have to consider Christie being a quitter. As I expected, she is going to play her hand.

The agreement between the NDP and Greens that is being reported by the CBC is probably making Christie very happy that she didn't throw in the towel. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...kinder-morgan-and-banning-big-money-1.4138290

While any vote on Proportional Representation has been postponed to October 20, 2018 - there is likely to be a great deal of disagreement between the NDP and Greens on the question asked on the ballot. The Child Care promise by the NDP is a major budget item - and - the Greens have already indicated that they won't support it. If they can't get the NDP to remove Child Care from the Budget, what will the Greens do? Christie only needs one Green to vote against Child Care and BC is into an election.

Christie has played the issue very well as is reported by the CBC. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/christy-clark-announcement-may-30-1.4138233 If she has a NDP or Green MLA "get sick" on Throne Speech Day or Budget Day - she remains Premier well into 2018. If the NDP/Green coalition defeat the Throne Speech - she has her election issue in 2018 when the NDP/Green coalition fails. By promising to stay as the Leader of the Opposition she probably increases her visibility to the voters of BC. Question Period is always well reported.

 

[papillion]

Cru$ty clark will re-convene the legislature in June, and soon after will have a non confidence vote go against her, and that will be the end for her.
The BC liberals know they cannot win with her as the leader.
If they get a replacement with more middle-of-the road appeal, and if the GreeNDP coalition falters, they may have a chance next year.


"Quote Originally Posted by Cock Throppled
...And Storm Rider, get some Prozac and try to move on from the 18th century."
Now that's good advice

 

[alcxd]

It was a joke bud
I'm not all that happy either with this & I bet that the green voters are probably not to happy either as this just lumped them in with the ndp who they obviously didn't want either.
Hence my comment "the new green is orange"
The way I see it is, the coalition has 44 seats they lose 1 to be speaker leaving them with 43. Now they are equal to liberals & we are fucked as nothing will be passed. I'm not big on the house thing so correct me if I'm wrong on my math.
I think the Green Party would have been better staying on their own & picking their battles while working with the liberals to at least get something done & not leave us with a looming question
How long will this last ?

 

[thodisipagal]

I knew that I didn't have to consider Christie being a quitter. As I expected, she is going to play her hand.

The agreement between the NDP and Greens that is being reported by the CBC is probably making Christie very happy that she didn't throw in the towel. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/briti...kinder-morgan-and-banning-big-money-1.4138290

While any vote on Proportional Representation has been postponed to October 20, 2018 - there is likely to be a great deal of disagreement between the NDP and Greens on the question asked on the ballot. The Child Care promise by the NDP is a major budget item - and - the Greens have already indicated that they won't support it. If they can't get the NDP to remove Child Care from the Budget, what will the Greens do? Christie only needs one Green to vote against Child Care and BC is into an election.

Christie has played the issue very well as is reported by the CBC. http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/christy-clark-announcement-may-30-1.4138233 If she has a NDP or Green MLA "get sick" on Throne Speech Day or Budget Day - she remains Premier well into 2018. If the NDP/Green coalition defeat the Throne Speech - she has her election issue in 2018 when the NDP/Green coalition fails. By promising to stay as the Leader of the Opposition she probably increases her visibility to the voters of BC. Question Period is always well reported.

You made a lot of declarative statements based on assumptions, as though there were no alternatives.

Clark didn't resign, but could have. It was not an impossible alternative.

You declared an election in 6 months is inevitable. Based on what, your assuming that a minority or coalition government would be illegitimate or impossibly fragile?

You say Clark could have one of NDP or Green MLA to fall sick on the day of the Throne Speech or budget voting. What if the same thing was done by Horgan or Weaver with a (con) Lib MLA?

My point is not to question your hunch about what Clark would do (I'm not mind reader and neither are you). My point was about what Clark could do, what options she had.

I'll give credit to you -- Clark could be a lifelong premier, if she turned into a magician.

 

[thodisipagal]

It was a joke bud
I'm not all that happy either with this & I bet that the green voters are probably not to happy either as this just lumped them in with the ndp who they obviously didn't want either.
Hence my comment "the new green is orange"
The way I see it is, the coalition has 44 seats they lose 1 to be speaker leaving them with 43. Now they are equal to liberals & we are fucked as nothing will be passed. I'm not big on the house thing so correct me if I'm wrong on my math.
I think the Green Party would have been better staying on their own & picking their battles while working with the liberals to at least get something done & not leave us with a looming question
How long will this last ?

Speaker can break a tie.

 

[MissingOne]

You made a lot of declarative statements based on assumptions ...

Well, if we're in the business of declarative statements based on unverifiable assumptions, here are a few ...

If the Green-Dippers try seriously to follow through on their declared intention to stop the twinning of the Kinder-Morgan pipeline, the resulting battle with the feds and Alberta will produce fissures in Confederation that will lead, in ten to twenty years, to the deconstruction of Canada as we know it.

If Trudeau holds firm and attempts to force the pipeline through against the will of the B.C. government, we will see a significant political movement in B.C. for separation from Canada, to form a little green utopia on the west coast. Presumably financed by tourism and Chinese land purchases. Maybe with a few casinos and some medical tourism thrown in.

If Trudeau caves in and the Green-Dippers succeed in preventing the twinning of the pipeline, the soon-to-be-Conservative government in Alberta will wonder what benefit there is to Alberta in being part of Canada anyway. They'll start looking towards a union with the United States, which lets them pipe their oil south.

Once either B.C. or Alberta goes, the precedent will be set, and other provinces or political entities with their own grudges will start dropping away from Canada.

Caveat: The ideas expressed herein are entirely a product of my wild imagination. But, they aren't unimaginable.

 

[thodisipagal]

Well, if we're in the business of declarative statements based on unverifiable assumptions, here are a few ...

If the Green-Dippers try seriously to follow through on their declared intention to stop the twinning of the Kinder-Morgan pipeline, the resulting battle with the feds and Alberta will produce fissures in Confederation that will lead, in ten to twenty years, to the deconstruction of Canada as we know it.

If Trudeau holds firm and attempts to force the pipeline through against the will of the B.C. government, we will see a significant political movement in B.C. for separation from Canada, to form a little green utopia on the west coast. Presumably financed by tourism and Chinese land purchases. Maybe with a few casinos and some medical tourism thrown in.

If Trudeau caves in and the Green-Dippers succeed in preventing the twinning of the pipeline, the soon-to-be-Conservative government in Alberta will wonder what benefit there is to Alberta in being part of Canada anyway. They'll start looking towards a union with the United States, which lets them pipe their oil south.

Once either B.C. or Alberta goes, the precedent will be set, and other provinces or political entities with their own grudges will start dropping away from Canada.

Caveat: The ideas expressed herein are entirely a product of my wild imagination. But, they aren't unimaginable.

Rachel Notely yesterday sounded a lot like Harper. What an irony. She said Pipeline will be built regardless of the possible change in government in Victoria. She forgets BC premier reports to people of BC, not to Rachel Notely.

If she or any other premier doesn't have the savvy to make a fair deal with BC within confederation, she can forget about any oil export through BC if Albertans want secession. The last time I saw the map, Alberta is still surrounded by land. And the nearest sea is on the BC side.

Whether Trans Mountain Pipeline will be built is not because whether or not Trudeau wants it -- he's done his job; his govt has given EA approval. EA approval for this project is within federal jurisdiction because the pipeline crosses Albertans/BC provincial boundary.

But like I've said in one of my previous posts, EA approval only opens the door for a major project; it doesn't guarantee success. (You may want to revisit nixing of Northern Gateway Pipeline Project by Trudeau despite that it had already been approved by Harper cabinet). Province has full jurisdiction over regulatory permitting -- and this project will require countless permits from BC govt.

Unfortunately for Notely or Kenny or Jean or whoever comes next, it's the BC Govt that must issue those permits, not Albertans premier, not PM of Canada.

So, while your post was entertaining, talking about secession is a tad premature. Just for an American company with HQ in Houston.

Canada is stronger than you seem to give credit for.

 

[sdw]

Rachel Notely yesterday sounded a lot like Harper. What an irony. She said Pipeline will be built regardless of the possible change in government in Victoria. She forgets BC premier reports to people of BC, not to Rachel Notely.

If she or any other premier doesn't have the savvy to make a fair deal with BC within confederation, she can forget about any oil export through BC if Albertans want secession. The last time I saw the map, Alberta is still surrounded by land. And the nearest sea is on the BC side.

Whether Trans Mountain Pipeline will be built is not because whether or not Trudeau wants it -- he's done his job; his govt has given EA approval. EA approval for this project is within federal jurisdiction because the pipeline crosses Albertans/BC provincial boundary.

But like I've said in one of my previous posts, EA approval only opens the door for a major project; it doesn't guarantee success. (You may want to revisit nixing of Northern Gateway Pipeline Project by Trudeau despite that it had already been approved by Harper cabinet). Province has full jurisdiction over regulatory permitting -- and this project will require countless permits from BC govt.

Unfortunately for Notely or Kenny or Jean or whoever comes next, it's the BC Govt that must issue those permits, not Albertans premier, not PM of Canada.

So, while your post was entertaining, talking about secession is a tad premature. Just for an American company with HQ in Houston.

Canada is stronger than you seem to give credit for.

You are obviously unaware that the Supreme Court of Canada ruled on Kinder Morgan (then Trans Canada Pipelines) in 1954. That ruling still applies. BC was seeking ways of preventing the pipeline. The case went through all of the levels to the SCC who made this ruling: https://scc-csc.lexum.com/scc-csc/scc-csc/en/item/7221/index.do

 

[thodisipagal]

That ruling, and the Court ruling on City of Burnaby's 2015 court challenge, was on limited application of law on federal jurisdiction (i.e. EA), not on province's regulatory permitting jurisdiction.

If the new BC govt were to challenge the project in a court of law and a verdict went against the province, it will go all the way to Supreme Court and the final verdict were still against the province, then either the law would have to be rewritten or the verdict would become a case law.

So, no, court hasn't yet had the opportunity to render that verdict yet.

 

[thodisipagal]

There is one way Justin Trudeau can ram this project through and that is by having the parliament, through a vote, invoking declaratory power under section 92(10)(c) of the Constitution Act. That section invests in the federal government the power to declare works to be for the general advantage of Canada. If thus declared, federal government can bypass provincial jurisdiction of regulatory permitting.

Invoking of that section is politically risky for PMJT, though. He will think twice before invoking that power, unless he wants to be a one-term PM. Risky, but possible.

We shall see.

 

[deathreborn]

There is one way Justin Trudeau can ram this project through and that is by having the parliament, through a vote, invoking declaratory power under section 92(10)(c) of the Constitution Act. That section invests in the federal government the power to declare works to be for the general advantage of Canada. If thus declared, federal government can bypass provincial jurisdiction of regulatory permitting.

Invoking of that section is politically risky for PMJT, though. He will think twice before invoking that power, unless he wants to be a one-term PM. Risky, but possible.

We shall see.

yes i heard that this was the quickest way he could do it but that it hasn't been used since the 60's and it's main purpose was for railways, which ironically is what will be carrying all that oil to the coast if the pipeline gets nixed. nothing the provincial govt can do about that. can't interfere in CP or CN's business.

 

[MissingOne]

... On the "public opinion" side, you've got a public that espouses a fossil free future, but is not yet ready to pay for the costs of it. ...

Hijacking the thread away from BC politics a bit, but this is one of my hobby horses. The public may want a fossil-free future, and seems to think that electrification of everything is the answer. Electrification has its costs too, and if we convert completely we may have to deal with issues that are no easier to tackle than greenhouse gases. We'll need more copper, more cobalt, more lithium, more rare earth elements, ad infinitum. All that stuff comes out of the ground. More mining. I personally have nothing against the mining industry; in fact it generates a big chunk of my revenue, so I'm all for it. Dig away! However, I suspect that many of those folks pushing for less use of fossil fuels really don't appreciate that what they're pushing for will produce more need for other things that come out of the earth.

Since we in BC don't much like mines either, I guess the mining, transportation of ores and metals, and eventual disposal of the toxic substances needed for our electrified fossil-free future may for the most part take place in other parts of the world, where the good folks of BC don't have to think about them. We'll be happy, we'll have our cell phones and our electric cars, and we'll be pipeline-free.

OK, now back to the more important question of how long Ms. Clark can hang on ...

 

[papillion]

Pipelines are a contentious issue and even if it's the realm of the Federal government they're not going to step in and push things in vote rich BC. Given that much of the country is anti-pipeline it's political suicide. Force a pipeline in BC, and you'll lose votes in Ontario and Quebec too.

Pipelines are a no win situation either. The oil companies (or which I have worked with in the past) did a piss poor job marketing their product and stick handling public opinion. They had a real cavalier attitude and now it's come back to haunt them. On the "public opinion" side, you've got a public that espouses a fossil free future, but is not yet ready to pay for the costs of it. They want their fresh papaya in their salad, but don't understand the energy input required to get that papaya to the restaurant in Vancouver.

Politics just isn't my thing really but I do watch the pipeline stuff. It's a no win situation for each side, but each side is to blame.

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned the legal challenges that will be thrown up by the many 1st Nations peoples, even if the feds manage to win provincial approval, the costs of legal wrangling against the collective Chiefs will sink any pipeline.