BC Elections : Predictions Anyone?

[badbadboy]

It looks like everyone will have to wait for the Recount in Courtenay-Comox. Currently the NDP has 9 more votes than the Liberals. That looks like the only riding that can change.

If Courtenay-Comox ends up Liberal, the Liberals have 44 seats, the NDP have 40 seats and the Greens have 3 seats. If Courtenay-Comox stays NDP, the Liberals have 43 seats, the NDP have 41 seats and the Greens have 3 seats. We would be pretty much guaranteed that the Liberals would be defeated in a confidence vote and we would have a Summer election.

I don't think it would be possible for the Liberals to make a deal with the Greens for their votes. The Greens want Kinder Morgan killed and they want Proportional Representation, the Liberals wouldn't be able to say yes.

It was interesting to hear Keith Baldrey's and Vaughn Palmer's synopsis "if the Liberals carry on with a Minority Gov't" last night on Global.

Party with the most seats also gives up one seat for the Speaker of the House. They assuming Liberals can go to the Lieutenant Governor and say they will run a minority government. Once in the House any contentious bill would most likely be defeated.

This could play into the Liberals hands because in Palmer's and Baldrey's opinion the NDP and Greens are virtually broke now while the Libs still have a sizeable war chest of cash. The Liberals would also be able to call the election date and presumably it would be the minimum amount of time after seeing the Lieutenant Gov.

Of course there are other scenarios like the Greens getting together with the NDP to form a govt or Greens with Liberals. IMO the Liberals would go it alone and exhaust all avenues before making the Greens more powerful with a seat with the Liberal Ministers.

 

[Robert Upndown]

It ain't over til it's over. Recounts, advance polling and absentee ballots could change the landscape. Some really close races out there.

 

[testicles]

Does the speaker get to vote if there is a tied vote in the legislature?

 

[carvesg]

Yes to further the debate or maintain the status quo . Keeping the existing government in place might falls in those prerogatives Constitution , customs and history define what's appropriate

 

[rlock]

Wow you are an ignorant tool in comparing Porportional Representation in general to Alberta's last election. The NDP won in Alberta because of a MASSIVE protest vote gone wrong.In EVERY riding the NDP won it was by the thiinest of margins and the WR and the PC's split the vote down the middle.Before the last election the NDP held 4 seats in the Legislature in Alberta.

You have an NDP government right now because First Past The Post made it possible; you hate the NDP and its false "majority" government - but you still defend the FPTP system like it's the holy gospel. If you don't get the mechanics of how it actually works, the only ignorant tool here is you.

 

[rlock]

As someone stated, its the only election I have seen where all 3 parties come out with a victory speech lol. I guess it will take some time before we find out whom the true winner is, though my guess is it the Greens. Definitely not us, the voters.

JD

Yeah. It was pretty silly - all the same script too: nothing much to say, but stay positive and concede nothing.


I would have liked to see it end as 42 / 42 / 3. The NDP and Liberals both equal would mean the Greens could credibly choose to partner with other one (or one and then the other).

Still, until the recounts are done, nothing is for certain. Corrupt Christy may yet get her so-called "majority". You could see by one comment she made at the end that this is what she expects.

 

[rlock]

It was interesting to hear Keith Baldrey's and Vaughn Palmer's synopsis "if the Liberals carry on with a Minority Gov't" last night on Global.

Party with the most seats also gives up one seat for the Speaker of the House. They assuming Liberals can go to the Lieutenant Governor and say they will run a minority government. Once in the House any contentious bill would most likely be defeated.

This could play into the Liberals hands because in Palmer's and Baldrey's opinion the NDP and Greens are virtually broke now while the Libs still have a sizeable war chest of cash. The Liberals would also be able to call the election date and presumably it would be the minimum amount of time after seeing the Lieutenant Gov.

Of course there are other scenarios like the Greens getting together with the NDP to form a govt or Greens with Liberals. IMO the Liberals would go it alone and exhaust all avenues before making the Greens more powerful with a seat with the Liberal Ministers.

Yeah, at 43, or 42, Clark could try a minority government in that style. They are so addicted to holding power alone, I think some of them would rather lose outright than share power with anyone.

Harper's first government was of this sort of "minority" - basically make legislation and dare the opposition to shoot it down. The obvious solution in this case would be for the Greens to make it know they would take them down immediately; that would throw it to the Lieutenant Governor who would not be able to justify another election so soon, and that means a coalition attempt is preferable. (The LG has the power to offer the others the chance to form a new government, rather than have an election.) However, the more time passes, the more likely it is that any defeat of legislation would result in a new election.

If another election did happen, the BC Liberals would probably rely on their massive reserves of dirty money to sustain them. But another thing the analysts pointed out was that dirty money became a negative election issue for the BC Liberals. What would the public reaction be if they choose to run another election with that dirty money, basically to fight for the right to keep taking dirty money? I can't see that going over very well.

 

[rlock]

Does the speaker get to vote if there is a tied vote in the legislature?

Yeah, so if Clark gets 44 seats (a technical majority), she still has to drop one of those to be speaker. And the speaker would then have to break all tied votes - obviously in Clark's favour, but that would also deeply politicize the speaker and pretty much doom the speaker's ability to be a neutral conductor of the legislature's affairs.

 

[Man Mountain]

Yeah, so if Clark gets 44 seats, she has to drop one of those to be speaker. And the speaker would then have to break all tied votes - obviously in Clark's favour, but that would also deeply politicize the speaker and pretty much doom the speaker's ability to be a neutral conductor of the legislature's affairs.

I can't remember who suggested it last night but one of the commentators said that she could offer the position of speaker to one of the Green Party seat holders. I'm not savvy enough to understand the strategic reason why though...

 

[rlock]

I can't remember who suggested it last night but one of the commentators said that she could offer the position of speaker to one of the Green Party seat holders. I'm not savvy enough to understand the strategic reason why though...

Technically, sure she could offer that, but it would make no sense for the Greens to accept it. A true independent would have nothing to lose by saying yes, but the Greens have a whole set of policies that would never happen if they enabled Christy to have a governing majority by herself.

 

[storm rider]

I will try to disregard that fact . We might just say that Albertans and British Columbians have different views or goals at times which might benefit or not each other .

We can all select historical events, data and theories to reinforce and convince ourselves that our belief system is right . Right ?

Don't worry storm rider that pipeline won't get built in the port of Vancouver :tape: ;-)

All that while the Chinese and Indians talk a double language about CO2 and not wanting to lower their emissions but out pacing us in investments toward clean energy technology and production plants ...just to make sure they get the upper hand later while we concentrate on short term profit . You (Albertans ) would be wise to do like Norway that seats on a trillion dollar with their legacy fund and start squirrel Ing away or start funneling the oil revenue into clean energy technology .....Even if the sun is shinning , the ice is not melting , the sea level is not rising and acidifying as well as we are breathing the cleanest air ever in history .

Love from BC
Csg

That pipeline is already built and the plan is to twin it and yes it will get built as it has gotten Federal approval.It is just laughable how Vancouver or should I say the "left coast" is just chock full of hypocrites.The hypocrites that show up at Burnaby mountain to protest the expansion of the pipeline in their gas guzzling SUV's and get organized at their "protest camp" on Burnaby mountain and after a couple of days of feeling self righteous they bugger off and leave a few tons of garbage behind in their wake.

With regards to the sham of climate change and the recent Paris accord China does not have to begin cutting emissions until 2030....leading up to the last Olympics China hosted China was bringing on line a coal fired power plant every day and they will do the same thing when China holds the winter Olympics

You have an NDP government right now because First Past The Post made it possible; you hate the NDP and its false "majority" government - but you still defend the FPTP system like it's the holy gospel. If you don't get the mechanics of how it actually works, the only ignorant tool here is you.

I get the mechanics of how it works and the only reason the NDP got elected in Alberta was because of a spite vote gone wrong.Many Albertans voted NDP out of sheer spite due to the very ill chosen words of the late Jim Prentiss and the next day it was a collective "holy fuck what did I do?" because nobody thought it would happen.Dont worry though the NDP are one and done.....no fucking way will the get re-elected.

As for the FPTP electoral system I say it is just fine.Each qualified citizen gets to vote and they cast their votes though it would be better if elections both Provincial and Federal and even civic had a higher turnout.The last thing I want to see is proportional representation as it only rewards the fringe elements on the political landscape.To give seats in any legislature or the house of commons based on a party getting a share of the votes cast and lets go with 20%.So say the Green party gets 20% of the popular vote and then thusly gets awarded 20% of the seats even though they would not have won 20% of the seats by actually getting enough votes in those ridings is utterly fucked.....what fucking seats do they get?Which constituents get fucked over by that riding being "given" to the Greens even though those constituents would not want representation by the Greens?

The biggest cheer fest for Proportional Representation is the Green party because they fucking know it is the only way they will actually get more people into power.They are a wacked out nut job fringe party with even worse platforms than the NDP and they are even bigger hypocrites.

As for the election result I wish the Neo Liberals of BC had gotten 1 more seat but that could still happen.For the road ahead if the Neo Liberals run a steady hand and do not introduce any harsh legislation they could go say 14 months before a confidence vote is called.If the NDP and the Greens try to gang up and form a coalition and try to hijack government then have fun with the next hustings as British Columbians did note VOTE for that....same as Canadians did not vote for that wimp Dion to team up with Layton and Duceppe and try and hijack the Federal government back in 2008/2009.

SR

 

[Cock Throppled]

Clue.

Less.

 

[thodisipagal]

That pipeline is already built and the plan is to twin it and yes it will get built as it has gotten Federal approval.

Federal government approval is critical for a major project to move ahead, but it does not guarantee that a project will be built. Federal approval only opens up the door to a whole lot of provincial permits, which are equally critical for the project to move from planning phase to construction phase.

That, sir, hasn't yet happened. And there is no guarantee that it will happen, especially that the BC (con) Libs have lost their majority magic (unless further vote counts and recounts prove otherwise). Both NDP and the Greens are on record for opposing Kinder Morgan's TransMountain Pipeline expansion project. And as you know, somebody you hate on the Vancouver Island now holds the balance of power.

So, sir, it may be just a pipedream to think that the pipeline will be built, just because the federal cabinet has approved it.

Plus, you'd be naive (and I'm being very courteous; I could use f%#k words just like you) to think that the pipeline will surely be built, given that City of Vancouver, City of Burnaby, T'sleil Waututh, Kwantlen and others have filed numerous lawsuits. These lawsuits alone could drag the process until such time KM will just call it quits.

And before you go about demeaning the rights of First Nations that have filed lawsuits, you may want to leaf through the pages of Constitution Act of Canada and focus any ounce of brain that you may have on section 35.

You may hate the pipeline protesters. But they have a reason for their protest. The pipeline expansion will triple the volume of diluted bitumen from 300,000 barrels/day from Edmonton to Burnaby to just under 900,000 bpd.

More seriously, the tanker traffic (and they are not your mom and pop marine vessels, they are Aframax tankers that are larger than the Shangri-La Hotel tower on Georgia and Thurlow) will quadruple in the Burrard Inlet to 444 tankers year in and year out. Imagine an Exxon Valdez waiting to happen, if just one of them happen to hit the shore or another vehicle. But of course you wouldn't care; you'd be living far away from the waters... in a flatland in the middle of nowhere.

My 2 cents. That's all I'm willing to invest on you or your pipeline pipedream.

 

[carvesg]

Thodisipagal It could not have been said better !

 

[sdw]

It was interesting to hear Keith Baldrey's and Vaughn Palmer's synopsis "if the Liberals carry on with a Minority Gov't" last night on Global.

Party with the most seats also gives up one seat for the Speaker of the House. They assuming Liberals can go to the Lieutenant Governor and say they will run a minority government. Once in the House any contentious bill would most likely be defeated.

This could play into the Liberals hands because in Palmer's and Baldrey's opinion the NDP and Greens are virtually broke now while the Libs still have a sizeable war chest of cash. The Liberals would also be able to call the election date and presumably it would be the minimum amount of time after seeing the Lieutenant Gov.

Of course there are other scenarios like the Greens getting together with the NDP to form a govt or Greens with Liberals. IMO the Liberals would go it alone and exhaust all avenues before making the Greens more powerful with a seat with the Liberal Ministers.

I'm not too sure about that.
Do the Greens want to be labeled as John Horgan's personal cock suckers now that they have established themselves?
If (and it is likely, pending the recount and final tally) there will be a non-confidence vote at some point and an election gets called I would suspect that the Liberals would actually come back with a majority. Like most elections, the disgruntled are usually the loudest and make up the larger voter turnout- hence the strong NDP showing. I'm sure that there would be a surge of Libs coming out to a fresh election.
And the Green vote might actually slip back towards the NDP, leaving them a bit shy in the count.
I think that the Greens actually have more juice by aligning themselves with the Libs in this case. The only reason I can see for them to bend over for the Red Windbreaker is because they feel they might actually gain a seat or two.
In any case, with a probable minority, the Greens have some very tough decisions regarding their alignment, and should think long and hard about ringing the bell too soon.

I suspect that Christy will hope that the NDP and Greens do a non-confidence vote as soon as the Parliament meets.

A month from now the schools close for the summer. The demographics of ridings like Point Grey and Burnaby Lougheed change because the students have gone home and the professors and teaching assistants are on holiday.

A June or July election would return a majority Liberal government in all probability.

 

[storm rider]

I suspect that Christy will hope that the NDP and Greens do a non-confidence vote as soon as the Parliament meets.

A month from now the schools close for the summer. The demographics of ridings like Point Grey and Burnaby Lougheed change because the students have gone home and the professors and teaching assistants are on holiday.

A June or July election would return a majority Liberal government in all probability.

No you get the alternate version.Where the commie NDP do a back room deal with the wacked out Green Party to try and hijack the government with a filthy coalition which the citizens of BC did not vote for.The citizens of BC has options for the ballot and the were A:Liberal B:NDP C:Green Party......there was no 4th mystical fucking box that said "I want the 2 lowest rungs to gang-up and steal government via a filthy socialist coalition"

Get ready for another election and damn right is all I can say.I know first hand how BC politics is fucked up from living there.Yeah I know the Liberals are not "liberal" hell they are centre right to say the least.....a damn better choice than the commie NDP.....and to say anything for the Green Party....well to give them a politcal voice is akin to allowing the peasants to vote in the UK in the 18th century....they are nothing but a bunch of wackjobs who would prefer to have Canadians heating their homes with unicorn farts with the unicorns fed with gum drops and rainbows and warm fuzzy thoughts about saving the earth.....same for the NDP but with a lot more cronyism.

By the way....has anybody on PERB that responded to my thread actually read the NDP's LEAP manifesto?You can get a free copy of it mailed to you.Just go to the NDP website and ask for it.It is great stuff if you are one of the party elites such as Naomi Klein....for her and others it is great....do as I say and not as do do....classic socialist stuff.....the only thing missing is sending off dissenters to labour camps.


Good luck BC.....and you will need it.....you have a pack of commies at the gate trying to break down the walls of democracy.

SR

 

[sdw]

No you get the alternate version.Where the commie NDP do a back room deal with the wacked out Green Party to try and hijack the government with a filthy coalition which the citizens of BC did not vote for.The citizens of BC has options for the ballot and the were A:Liberal B:NDP C:Green Party......there was no 4th mystical fucking box that said "I want the 2 lowest rungs to gang-up and steal government via a filthy socialist coalition"

Get ready for another election and damn right is all I can say.I know first hand how BC politics is fucked up from living there.Yeah I know the Liberals are not "liberal" hell they are centre right to say the least.....a damn better choice than the commie NDP.....and to say anything for the Green Party....well to give them a politcal voice is akin to allowing the peasants to vote in the UK in the 18th century....they are nothing but a bunch of wackjobs who would prefer to have Canadians heating their homes with unicorn farts with the unicorns fed with gum drops and rainbows and warm fuzzy thoughts about saving the earth.....same for the NDP but with a lot more cronyism.

By the way....has anybody on PERB that responded to my thread actually read the NDP's LEAP manifesto?You can get a free copy of it mailed to you.Just go to the NDP website and ask for it.It is great stuff if you are one of the party elites such as Naomi Klein....for her and others it is great....do as I say and not as do do....classic socialist stuff.....the only thing missing is sending off dissenters to labour camps.


Good luck BC.....and you will need it.....you have a pack of commies at the gate trying to break down the walls of democracy.

SR

SR first the NDP and Greens have to defeat the incumbent Liberal government with a non-confidence vote. So, they have to vote against the Throne Speech or Budget. then the Lieutenant Governor has to refuse the Liberal's request for an immediate election. Only then can the NDP/Green coalition ask the Lieutenant Governor to allow them to form a government. That government will immediately lose the non-confidence vote brought by the Liberals. Which will then force an election because the Lieutenant Governor has already watched the Liberals be defeated in a non-confidence vote and they therefore cannot form a government.

So, Fall election or Winter election. Another election in 6 - 8 months is inevitable.

 

[deathreborn]

rumors are some of the liberal mla's are finally realizing that christy clark is the problem. her negative image basically cost the party the election. run a new leader with a better image and they could easily get there majority back. a fair amount of the vote was more directed at the hatred of christy clark.

 

[Cock Throppled]

Only then can the NDP/Green coalition ask the Lieutenant Governor to allow them to form a government. That government will immediately lose the non-confidence vote brought by the Liberals. Which will then force an election because the Lieutenant Governor has already watched the Liberals be defeated in a non-confidence vote and they therefore cannot form a government.

So, Fall election or Winter election. Another election in 6 - 8 months is inevitable.

Nothing is inevitable. The NDP/Greens have already formed an alliance, and are signing off on working together to form a viable government (as shaky as it may be).

The LG has an obligation to allow them to form a government once the Liberals lose a non-confidence vote.

Although the edge is razor thin, as long as the 44 vote as a block they can rule as long as needed.

And Storm Rider, get some Prozac and try to move on from the 18th century.

 

[badbadboy]

So here is a prediction that the Libs will lick their wounds in opposition this year and there will be a leadership vote at their convention. A new leader will emerge to lead them against the Coalition NDP Greens next Spring.

The bromance with Horgan and Weaver will start to show cracks in their foundation early. Pushing agendas such as the proportional representation, increased corporate taxes to 30% and other vote getting promises will push for a non-confidence motion by next Summer.

New Liberal Majority Govt will be in place by Fall 2018.