Carman Fox

Tackling B.C.'s housing crisis

Relax10

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Feb 4, 2019
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Housing affordability and availability. Maybe it's just me but it doesn't seem like it will or is getting better anytime soon. I've lived in 4 countries in my lifetime and housing crisis is always a challenge. I struggle to believe all these elected officials and so called "highly educated" officials cannot come up with better solution's to a widening problem.

I know this topic has somewhat been discussed before. I'd like to try to look deeper. What do you all think are the main issues to why this housing crisis has happened and why it's getting worse. Then what is a solution that makes sense/practically.

And I'm not just talking about homes for people on the street. Also the newer generations graduating or been in the work force 5-10 and struggle to find homes.



"The province doesn't have enough housing to meet the demand."


 

richboy93

Member
May 18, 2017
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Haven't watched the video yet.

I think the single issue that ties all the others together is housing being used as an investment. If you set up a society where your main retirement investment is your house then of course eventually your children will have a harder time affording a house. Compound that over a few generations and you go from post-ww2 prosperity to where we are now. Seems to me things will have to get far worse before they get better. Too many people are in too deep to devalue their homes to the point where the rest of us can afford it again. So we will basically have to wait until society collapses (maybe something like the great depression, or worse?) and everyone loses everything, and hopefully we make a better system next time (probably not).
 

FreeG

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Dec 25, 2015
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Haven't watched the video yet.

I think the single issue that ties all the others together is housing being used as an investment. If you set up a society where your main retirement investment is your house then of course eventually your children will have a harder time affording a house. Compound that over a few generations and you go from post-ww2 prosperity to where we are now. Seems to me things will have to get far worse before they get better. Too many people are in too deep to devalue their homes to the point where the rest of us can afford it again. So we will basically have to wait until society collapses (maybe something like the great depression, or worse?) and everyone loses everything, and hopefully we make a better system next time (probably not).
Wish I was smarter in this issue but will have to watch the video to see if it helps. My gut says you’re right tho - ppl who buy property to flip or explicitly to rent out end up taking inventory that’s already limited FURTHER limits what’s available for people wanting to simply live somewhere. Whether the flippers/investors are foreign, out of province or local doesn’t really matter.
I vaguely recall when a tax was placed in foreign buyers it DID help with housing prices but I may be wrong.

One things for sure- do not ask realtors what the solution is. They exist to make money, they benefit over this housing crisis and I don’t believe ANY of them care about affordable housing.
 

Relax10

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Feb 4, 2019
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I vaguely recall when a tax was placed in foreign buyers it DID help with housing prices but I may be wrong.

There is a tax. In theory and some practical sense it helped. There have been loopholes, lawsuits and other things that have negated the impact the tax was suppose to have. Then you have this, which is quite damning.


https://blog.remax.ca/are-foreign-buyers-still-purchasing-vancouver-real-estate/

"For years, one of the main discussions among Canadian real estate experts had been the influence foreign buyers had on housing prices, particularly in a city like Vancouver. Critics warned that foreign buyers would scoop up condominiums and semi-detached homes and leave these properties empty or market the units on Airbnb. If any jurisdiction combated this trend, valuations could drop, helping to make housing more affordable. So, what happened?


In 2016, the British Columbia government introduced a 15 per cent foreign buyers tax, which was later raised to 20 per cent by the province. But now, the federal government has established a new one per cent speculation tax on foreign buyers if homes sit empty. The new levy from Ottawa will go into effect next year, promising that this money will go back into the housing industry. The government made it clear: “Speculative demand from foreign, non-resident investors contributes to unaffordable housing prices for many Canadians.”

..................................

In North and West Vancouver, there has been close to zero foreign buyers. Did the vanishing act lead to lower prices? Quite the opposite: 60 homes sold for at least $5 million in the area. It continues to be a supply-side issue for the housing industry, in addition to historically low interest rates and pent-up demand unbalancing the market. Until inventories improve, Vancouver real estate will continue to burn red-hot.

..............................................

Moving forward, the objective is clear: add fresh supply to ease sky-high prices. But is penalizing foreign buyers the way to go? Many industry observers have asserted that this is a feel-good tool that might look like it will improve the situation but will hardly achieve much of anything. Until new supply comes to the market, property prices across Canada will continue to escalate – with or without the involvement of out-of-country buyers. "




https://vancouversun.com/opinion/co...d-foreign-buyers-tax-points-to-larger-problem

"It’s clear a non-Canadian can avoid the foreign-buyers tax on a residence simply by instead buying a commercial property, as Szalontai’s website says. And it’s also well-known anyone can do so by buying a home outside Metro Vancouver, Victoria or other places where the tax applies."



https://bc.ctvnews.ca/newcomers-to-...s-tax-after-purchasing-kelowna-home-1.5776440

"A couple who recently moved to Canada went to court after realizing they'd have to pay the Foreign Buyers' Tax on the home they'd purchased in B.C.'s Southern Interior. "
 
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Relax10

Well-known member
Feb 4, 2019
716
571
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Haven't watched the video yet.

I think the single issue that ties all the others together is housing being used as an investment. If you set up a society where your main retirement investment is your house then of course eventually your children will have a harder time affording a house. Compound that over a few generations and you go from post-ww2 prosperity to where we are now. Seems to me things will have to get far worse before they get better. Too many people are in too deep to devalue their homes to the point where the rest of us can afford it again. So we will basically have to wait until society collapses (maybe something like the great depression, or worse?) and everyone loses everything, and hopefully we make a better system next time (probably not).

You make a valid point. I would hate if it had to come to a societal collapse. There has also been talk about how corporate landlords and lack of new construction have negatively affected the US and Canada. Big firms buy single homes homes with cash and overwhelming regular homes buyers to turn those homes into rentals, Air BnB type rentals are still happening even in places that outlaw it and other similar uses.
 

80watts

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May 20, 2004
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Actually the problem is with Canadians flipping houses. You are limited to flipping 3? houses a year. Alot of people buy fix upers and sale within a couple of months. Capital gain tax free. Should go 1 house per year capital gain tax free. 2nd house tax free if your employer requires you to move if moving within 100 miles then its taxed. 3rd house definitely taxed.

Another thing is low income housing. On low income buildings the company can only take 6% over cost to build. Most mark up is about 25 to 40%. The other thing is cost of materials. Most lumber is cut more now in the states and lumber prices are very high right now.

The system is corrupt, through the banks and land evaluation practices.

The other side of the story is the open ended contract realtors have with their clients. If a house is listed at 100.000.00 (price A); In a hot market they can get bidding wars which drives the price of the 100,000.00 up by 10-30 thousand dollars. Get rid of this and you won't have the competetion and that will drive prices down pretty fast. Put alot of people in the real estate bussiness out of work... can't let that happen.

This would mean what ever a person list their house at; it has to sell at that price. no bidding wars etc. Do this for a year or 2 and I would guess the housing market will be a buyers market in no time. As this affects the people flipping houses.

Also make sure the price listed does not go over tax price estimate of the property (adjusted for inflation). And every year after that depreciates by 50% of paid off principle in that year.... Yes everybody gets fucked... Have a nice day....
The government gives and the government takes away, capital gains on houses. Limit selling price of house to land tax assessment (plus inflation). Depreciated the taxes by amount of principal paid off that year. Eliminate bidding wars. If no mortgage then the house tax increases by inflation (which it does anyway).

That should really take the steam out of greedy bankers, flippers, real estate fuckers, and any one else associated with the wide spread corrupted system.
Low income housing- stiffer rules for profit on contracting services for low income.

The end result is the government has to target the people who are increasing the price of housing.
 

richboy93

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May 18, 2017
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I was going to make a comment about how we should look at what Japan is doing because apparently their real estate actually loses value and they tear down buildings and re-build for the price to come back up (don't cite me on this). I instead found this: (emphasis mine)

The Japanese asset price bubble was an economic bubble in Japan from 1986 to 1991 in which real estate and stock market prices were greatly inflated.[1] In early 1992, this price bubble burst and Japan's economy stagnated. The bubble was characterized by rapid acceleration of asset prices and overheated economic activity, as well as an uncontrolled money supply and credit expansion.[2] More specifically, over-confidence and speculation regarding asset and stock prices were closely associated with excessive monetary easing policy at the time.[3] Through the creation of economic policies that cultivated the marketability of assets, eased the access to credit, and encouraged speculation, the Japanese government started, prolonged and exacerbated the Japanese asset price bubble.
Sounds a lot like what we're going through.
 

rlock

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May 20, 2015
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Just adding "more supply" the way that developers and the real estate industry want will not work.

It's all the product of corruption.
Speculators & money laundering drive the market. Projects driven by developers wants (i.e. build cheap, sell fast, then GTFO), instead of society's needs.

Rental housing is routinely destroyed in favour of condos that almost nobody can afford. Zoning is warped, agricultural and industrial land rezoned as residential. Forests hacked down to build condos immediately with no intermediate step. Greenery gone, quality of life destroyed. Public land is sold off cheap to private developers, under the guise of revitalizing civic facilities (rec centres, hospitals, etc.).

Mayors and councils think only about increasing the tax base at any cost, just adding more and more properties, more and more population. It never occurs to them that driving working people out to the boonies will kill their cities, and make peoples lives much harder by adding the burden of super-long commutes.

Centralized, long-term planning? There is none. Even the building of the Skytrain lines was done so stupidly that they dithered over when or where to put it in, as the land values skyrocketed. Business will never create a city that makes sense in the big picture - their goal is just to grab small patches of land, convert it from low value to high value, then sell it. It's doesn't need to make sense or even be built well; it just needs to have just enough gloss to pass muster with colluding bureaucrats and municipal officials. Even though they benefit from government corruption and weakness, they developers still run well-funded media campaigns to complain about "red tape". It's not red tape to say they should only build what people here actually want or need.

All of this could be stopped if the elected officials had the backbone to say "no", but the big problem is that governments never say "no" to developers. They barely have the balls to tell them to delay or redesign. Pet projects get rammed through, but public opposition is routinely ignored. Cities are promised all sorts of things which the developers never deliver on, or just cheap token measures to fill the dead space, like dog parks and community gardens. Really the purpose is just to pretend they ever gave a fuck.

Until the reforms to municipal campaign finance were brought in, a lot of mayors and councils owed their whole political careers to donations by developers. When that sponsor money was cut off, a lot of the crooked pols chose to retire.

Instead of developers asking permission for projects they want, governments should say what they want in a location, and private contractors can bid for the right to build it. Well, nobody ever does that do they?

We (still) end up with a city built for the elite, mostly overseas investment and laundering black market money, not just from here but world wide.

So how is doing more of the same failed "build condos on every patch of ground, ignore the consequences" routine going to actually solve anything? Over 20 years of building like crazy for people nobody knows, while the actual citizens see their incomes stagnate and their cities become more unlivable with each passing day.
 

westwoody

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Jun 10, 2004
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We (still) end up with a city built for the elite,
Best post in ages rlock.

I have several friends who build/flip houses. Guys doing two three houses a year are not the problem. The issue is huge companies building thousands of units, building entire subdivisions and malls. And individuals who own hundreds or thousands of rental units. We have a city run by developers for the benefit of developers, verging on a monopoly of landlords/developers.

Stupid useless projects that put hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars into the pockets of a dozen or so backroom boys. The police hq will cost over $400 million by the time it is finished - that’s about $400 for every man, woman and child in Manitoba. And a friend of the administration got thrown a few million dollars for no tangible work. On just one of many many projects.

A new firehall was approved. Somehow during construction a second floor was added on adding millions to the cost.
NOBODY KNOWS who approved it how the fuck can that be?

A few well known contractors routinely put in lowball bids. Then they go back and demand more money for half finished jobs they knew they didn’t have the people or resources to do. This is an ingoing scam, but seems to be happening less than a few years ago.

The only solution is to vote against anyone who is in the pockets of developers, property managers or construction companies.
Don’t vote for lawyers either, most of them are on the gravy train too.
 
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RedDragon64

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But now, the federal government has established a new one per cent speculation tax on foreign buyers if homes sit empty.
I was living in Singapore during a building and foreign investment boom. A lot of condos were sitting empty because they were earning the owners 10%/year or more. That was a better return than most investments so it was not seen as a waste to leave them sitting empty (and even unfinished).

A one percent tax in the current market would be insignificant.
 
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westwoody

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A one percent tax in the current market would be insignificant.
My house is worth 4 times what I paid, yes 1% is irrelevant.
That proposal is more about looking like they are doing something, than actually doing something.
Most perb members have a million bucks tied up in home equity and nobody wants to lose that.
So how do we make new housing affordable/accessible, without deflating our own equity?
 
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Uncled

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There is affordable housing in Canada. The problem is that it is in smaller cities and towns. For numerous reasons many people do not want to live in these places - fewer jobs, limited medical services, educational institutions, entertainment and cultural activities, harsher climate, etc.

If you want to own a house in Toronto or Vancouver, you are going to have to pay at least 1 million dollars for the land that it is sitting on.

Politicians say that they will do things to make home ownership more affordable for the average person in these cities, but in reality what can they do?

They do not have the power to dictate what the price of that land should be.
 
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Equity Market investor

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Condo's were the answer but they now have gotten to sky high levels.



My house is worth 4 times what I paid, yes 1% is irrelevant.
That proposal is more about looking like they are doing something, than actually doing something.
Most perb members have a million bucks tied up in home equity and nobody wants to lose that.
So how do we make new housing affordable/accessible, without deflating our own equity?
 

westwoody

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Condo's were the answer but they now have gotten to sky high levels.
Lots of low grade apartments in Winnipeg have been converted to condos, removing them from the affordable housing market.
New condos are very expensive but builders can’t keep up with the demand.
 
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rlock

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A few well known contractors routinely put in lowball bids. Then they go back and demand more money for half finished jobs they knew they didn’t have the people or resources to do. This is an ingoing scam, but seems to be happening less than a few years ago.

The only solution is to vote against anyone who is in the pockets of developers, property managers or construction companies.
Don’t vote for lawyers either, most of them are on the gravy train too.
- Yeah, I remember the convention centre project which was just like that; the cheapest bid was taken, then the cost doubled during construction. Tendering contracts means governments usually choose the lowest bidder "for the taxpayers' sake" (LOL), but they're not going to let themselves get stuck with some half-built thing, so they're forced to just swallow the cost increases. A thing costs what it fucking costs - there is no magic formula to make a thing cheaper. Either they look cheaper than they are because the contractor is lying, or they are cheaper because the contractor is going to cut corners on something and the work will be shoddy. So basically, contracts are won by the contractor / consortium that is the least honest, not the best value; how is that not also a kind of corruption?

- The problem is political donations are only found out after elections are over. In places like the City of Vancouver, there are political parties so you can (hopefully) guess which parties are pro developer and which are not (or at least what kind of development they want). But a lot of municipalities are supposedly non-partisan "independents", so people cannot really know what those folks are about until after the election. A lot of them run in secret alliances, basically they are more like elite cliques which run unofficial slates of candidates, rather than actual parties. In any case, turnout for municipal elections is usually 30% or less. Some people get elected with not even 10% of voters supporting them. Then people complain that their civic leaders do not represent the people - well, they represent only a well connected few of them.
 
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Equity Market investor

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Here in Metro Vancouver, condo prices--- by a wide margin --- are more than detached houses that are located in certain areas around British Columbia interior. Great retirement motive I would imagine for ones wanting to leave Metro Van.


Lots of low grade apartments in Winnipeg have been converted to condos, removing them from the affordable housing market.
New condos are very expensive but builders can’t keep up with the demand.
 
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Larry123

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There are several ways to lower the prices of homes:

1) increase government housing
2) increase tax on those who buy homes as investments (non-principal residence)
3) increase mortgage rates

I believe that the low cost of borrowing has been the major factor for the prices of real estate spiking up. Now that high inflation is the worry for many governments, a rapid increase in interest rates should dampen the demand and if the rates go high enough, might even crash the market.
 

Ray

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I was going to make a comment about how we should look at what Japan is doing because apparently their real estate actually loses value and they tear down buildings and re-build for the price to come back up (don't cite me on this). I instead found this: (emphasis mine)



Sounds a lot like what we're going through.
Japan has a declining population.
 
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PuntMeister

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Ok, let’s see what Punt has to say about this so called “Affordability Crisis”. Punt has ruminated objectively on this topic, and believes this is a structural economic trajectory, rather than any political / policy debaucle (and I do love to blame politicians, but they are not the root cause, nor the solution).

SCARCE RESOURCE is the economic term that fits total available land in the Lower Mainland. Metro-Vancouver is hard-bounded by the Sea to the West, the Mountains to the North, and the US border to the South. The only way we can grow is East out the Fraser Valley (already happened), up (happening slower than deman grows), or increased density (eg: laneway homes, zoning changes, etc.). Vancouver is AND ALWAYS WILL BE a Scarce Resource for land, meaning land values will continue to go up and affordability will continue to be a crisis, at least until we face the reality that it is structural in nature, and stop expecting our politicians to do anything about it.

Our city has grown up. We are on the trajectory of becoming the new Manhattan. So buckle up folks, and live with buddies and pay your exhorbitant rent if you choose to live here.

Crisis? Nope. New Reality, Yup!
 

westwoody

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I believe that the low cost of borrowing has been the major factor for the prices of real estate spiking up
People are buying homes based on the payments they can make, whilst disregarding the actual selling price. Many have given up on actually owning or paying off the mortgage.

I see people at work with the same attitude buying giant pickup trucks and SUVs. Note most ads for vehicles and condos have payments in big font and actual selling price buried at the bottom.
 
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