This is pretty much where I'm at. What a bad idea having an election now, with no crisis in the legislature at all - literally nothing - to justify calling an election. The risk is unjustified - the second wave of COVID is not approaching, it's already here. Cases have been growing steadily since July, and with school back in session now, it could grow explosively. Every gathering, every extra excursion out of one's small circle is a risk. Too late to call an election now at low risk - the "safest" month or two has already passed. In any case, we are clearly wading deep in the political bog again. If supposedly nobody in power wanted it, then why are we here?
What is really at stake in this election is not the management of the pandemic, but having control of the recovery agenda afterwards. Once the pandemic subsides (IF it subsides), the government in power will look at all that massive deficit & debt incurred, and decide what sort of long-term plan it needs to deal with it. That's either going to be austerity & huge service cuts, or a period of increased taxes while services stay at heightened post-pandemic levels. How people respond to it coming out of this pandemic will depend on how deficient they think government was going in.
How do I view the political competitors?
There are some things this NDP government has done, project-wise and policy wise, that I agree with, and would like to see continue; BC needed a change in direction from the corrupt shit-show going on prior to 2017. There were some reforms after that, which need to continue. However, Horgan definitely broke his power-sharing agreement as soon as the polls showed his government as popular. The public is not that gullible to believe Horgan was being thwarted in the legislature. If anything, the Greens slammed the brakes on some dumb things that the NDP would have done if not for the extra oversight & resistance. They should be thanking the Greens for making them a better government, not betraying them.
Speaking of which, I'm also still mad about how the NDP deliberately bungled the electoral reform campaign, just to say to the Greens that they tried (without ever really trying). What that led to was exactly what you are seeing right now: another first-past-the-post election where a party is betting on swindling a majority of seats out of a minority of votes. The plain fact is the NDP are being opportunistic, and I suspect they are convinced they can eliminate the Green party now that Weaver is out and Fursteneau is in. (Just watch: the real bitter fighting will be between NDP and Greens, just as it was in BC during the federal election.)
On the other hand (the right hand, not the left, hehe), looking at the right-wing BC "Liberal" opposition ...
Andrew Wilkinson seems like he would take us back to the Christy Clark style of government - a lot of empty platitudes about "prosperity for working families" (blah blah blah) while the country-club crowd does well and everyone else is getting fucked over. If they get in again, they will go right back to swinging a wrecking ball at BC Hydro, BC Ferries, the ALR, public education, public health care, and ICBC. Unrestricted resource extraction in rural areas, and unlimited condo speculation / money laundering in urban areas? That's what the BC Libs were up to before and they still have no remorse for it. Losing power taught them nothing about what BC's people actually want and need. Wilkinson himself doesn't matter anyways - he does not seem a very effective or charismatic leader. Jas Johal is the real leader of that party now, and everyone can see it (especially on Global TV where he can get favourable coverage without even having to ask). However, if the BC Liberals do have an ace to play in this campaign, it might be the wedge issue of crime. It's a touchy thing, considering how complex it is, and how much is actually federal jurisdiction, not provincial - but crime is pissing people off a lot more lately than in was a few years ago. Criminals are acting more violent and audacious than ever before, and while the BC Liberals might be denounced as the party of money laundering, but there are also many citizens who see the NDP as too lenient on street crime, and are sick of feeling besieged in their own neighbourhoods. Wilkinson has already made one mention of crime as a campaign issue - expect to hear more.
Then there are the Greens. I liked Andrew Weaver's approach. I think he understood the value of being neither left nor right, acting as some wild-card that could at times agree with either of the other two parties. The Greens' independence and willingness to approach politics differently is a strength. But I think some activists get caught up in rhetoric, and miss this point on that - maybe getting lost in the tangle of trendy social issues and taking their eye of the core issues that matter more: environment and democratic reform. The NDP always had to be dragged kicking and screaming towards environmental action (not just words) - for example, look how quick they were to not increase the carbon tax once the pandemic hit, even though fuel prices were suddenly lower than they had been in a decade or more. With the Greens, there would be no falseness on this issue, only action. That scares some, but shouldn't. After all, COVID sharpened peoples' minds to this fact: survival should always come first. Science nerds that they are, crusaders that they are, I think we need more of what they've got - at least as a viable alternative to the polarizing gamesmanship of the other two parties.
If Furstaneau gives me cause for concern, it is this: the departure of Weaver should not mean the new leader(s) of the Green should throw away the sound tactics that Weaver used. For example, Fursteneau could have stopped this "pandemic election" before it happened by offering to Wilkinson to create a governing arrangement with the BC Liberals, just to last until the fixed election date came next year. It would have been audacious, maybe even controversial, but with COVID raging, perhaps necessary. Maybe that offer would have worked, or maybe not - but the fact that there was not even an attempt shows that she might not be ready to find some common ground with the BC Liberals, where Weaver could have. The NDP would dearly like to wipe out the Greens, since they wrongly think of Green voters as NDPers who've gone astray. Greens cannot act like that's true, or they will lose their purpose and then all their seats (and many years of built up momentum).
[So far] I am rejecting both the NDP and BC LIberals in favour of the BC Greens.
I do not want Wilkinson's Liberals to take power, but it would also be great to see Horgan's ambition for a "majority" lead to nothing but the same situation we were in before this election. Greens still there, perhaps even a bit stronger.
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