Do you believe polls showing a win for trudeau liberals?
- Thread starter Probyn
- Start date
EKOS today says that the Harper Conservatives have lost some of the senior's vote. Since they do vote, this isn't good news for the Conservatives.
http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/final_report_october_18_2015.pdf
http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/final_report_october_18_2015.pdf
All of the public pollsters have released their final polling for October 18 2015. There is an amazing agreement between the polls, both on the Liberal lead and on seniors voting.
http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/10/deadlock-broken-liberals-surging/ (Liberal lead, more over 50 voting Liberal)
http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=7031 (Liberal lead)
http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151018 Ballot TrackingE.pdf (Liberal lead, more over 50 voting Liberal) (they actually report 4 surveys. usual 3 day rollup, Friday, Saturday, Sunday)
http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/... News Release (2015 10 18) Forum Research.pdf (Liberal lead, more over 45 years voting Liberal)
http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/our-prediction/ http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/canadas-choice-2015/ (Liberal lead)
The range of Liberal support reported is 38% to 40% which is all majority territory and Forum's seat distribution prediction is for a Majority Liberal government.
So, the EKOS poll is consistent, it was just the first released this evening. There is supposed to be an EKOS seat distribution prediction released tomorrow morning, but I won't see it until the counting is all done.
Up until today, it was looking like the Conservatives could still slide into a minority government. I don't think that is possible now. In fact, I think the Trudeau Liberals are on their way to a Chretien style Liberal victory. Large Liberal Majority government. The Conservatives appear to have worn out their welcome and the NDP has just been steamrollered. The only beneficiary other than the Liberals is the Bloc who will be regaining seats temporarily held by the NDP.
If the Liberals are rewarded with 170+ seats, the Conservatives probably will be Official Opposition, the Bloc will probably be the third party and the NDP will be the fourth party. That's because the Liberal win will mostly be at the expense of the NDP who were already losing seats to the Bloc.
I think that the internal polling of the Conservatives and NDP reflects what the public pollsters are picking up. Both Harper and Mulcair were showing desperation as they did their events today.
Trudeau on the other hand was talking Majority as he asked for people's support today.
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I was hurt on ship a few years ago. It wasn't combat, but we were doing training in rough seas. The way Veterans Affairs used to work is a medical pension. They switched before I joined to the lump sum payment. If you do receive a lump sum, it's all fine and dandy. You can try to receive another lump sum in two years time. You can keep going like this, but it's not easy and the burden of proof falls solely on the person submitting the claim. If other conditions develop, you have to prove it and the process of attributing it to your time in uniform is exponentially more difficult.
If you live close to an office, there's some help with submitting claims, but VA staff have heavy case loads. The rest, those that live too far to make it to an office, have to mail claims in. Closing down 9 centres sure doesn't help veterans. Using Service Canada also doesn't help veterans. It's not the claims they typically deal with on a daily basis.
That counselor was completely out of line saying what they said. It doesn't matter if it was a combat injury or not, it's the nature of the injury and it's affect on a person that matters.
I'm not going to claim that training is just like combat. But, military training is not a cakewalk either. It most certainly is not like a typical workplace. There are also a lot of extra stresses that push people to the limit. If you want people to be combat ready/seaworthy/ready to fly, you need training that gets as close to the real thing as possible.
Incidents in the military should not be lumped together with generic WCB incidents. We're on duty 24/7. We can be called at a moment's notice to deal with whatever needs to be done. We don't get paid overtime, we don't have a union and we can't just quit if we don't like something. We're under contract and to break that contract requires a minimum of 6 months. It's not the same as a typical job.
Well, it looks like the public pollsters had this one nearly correct.
Large Liberal Majority - check
Conservatives reduced again to a Western Right Wing party - check
NDP decimated - check
All of the major party leaders were re-elected (to my surprise) although the Vancouver Sun has said that Harper has already resigned as Conservative Leader.
Elections Canada shows the % each party got is right in the public pollster's margin of error.
The public pollsters were more correct about the Bloc than I was. Maybe Quebec Nationalism is a dead issue.
Forum Research has done a post election poll asking people why they voted. The answer is 1. Change, 2. Party with best chance to defeat Conservatives, 3. Niqab - 14% in Quebec voted Conservative (6 seat gain) because of the Niqab.
The Forum Poll http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/... News Release (2015 10 21) Forum Research.pdf
The CBC article http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-election-poll-change-oct24-1.3286044
The Forum Poll http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/... News Release (2015 10 21) Forum Research.pdf
The CBC article http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/grenier-election-poll-change-oct24-1.3286044
Well, the honeymoon has not ended yet for the Trudeau Liberals. Judging from this, the honeymoon may continue well into next year.
Abacus Data has today released a job approval poll http://abacusdata.ca/job-approval-of-the-new-government-51-approve-vs-19-disapprove/
Abacus Data has today released a job approval poll http://abacusdata.ca/job-approval-of-the-new-government-51-approve-vs-19-disapprove/
EKOS has released an interesting study of the Federal Election. They, however, are not the most accurate pollsters of the 2015 election - that honor is shared by Leger and Forum who were both closer to the actual result.
http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/11/the-42nd-election-a-polling-retrospective/
http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/11/the-42nd-election-a-polling-retrospective/
Most of the regular pollsters were pretty close, except for Ekos, who were consistently putting the Cons as stronger than they really were. When you have a situation were everyone is coming up with more or less the same numbers except for one guy, who have to think that bias was affecting what that guy was reporting.
The amazing thing is that EKOS is owned and run by connected Liberals. If they have a bias, one would expect it to be towards the Liberals. So, I don't know if they were overcompensating or if their polling system is screwed up - but they were wrong by too much during the federal election. Now, they release a self-serving "retrospective" and make a bullshit claim that they were the most accurate. Remember in 2011 they were also wrong http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2011/05/a-brief-post-mortem-on-polling-election-41-may-3-2011/ They didn't see the effect of the "NDP Wave" and their May 3, 2011 "post mortem" is also bullshit.
I think that political polling is going to become too expensive because the "mixed" models of data collection are not accurate enough to be useful. I think that there is going to be a shakeup in the trust that the media gives pollsters.
Apparently Abacus Data was asked by the Broadbent Institute (NDP) to poll Canadians on Proportional Representation vs Preferential Ballots. I'm betting they didn't like the result at all, neither will the Conservatives. Especially now that the Trudeau Government has put changing the Election System in the Throne Speech as something that will be accomplished in the next 18 months. I searched for the poll, it doesn't seem to be public yet. However, the National Post has an article on the results. http://news.nationalpost.com/news/c...-existential-threat-to-the-conservative-party
Since the Trudeau Liberals would not have formed a government under Proportional Representation, I doubt that PR has a lot of support with the Trudeau Liberal Government.
I'm sure that we will end up with an Electoral System that ensures that each MP has 50% +1 of the vote in her/his Electoral District. But I'm betting on Preferential or Ranked Ballots as our new Electoral System.
The polling just get's worse for the Conservatives and NDP. Forum just released a Poll that shows that if the election was held now, The Liberals would win 240 seats, the Conservatives 91 seats and the NDP 6 seats. Boy, what a great leader Thomas Mulcair is! My brother in law told me when Mulcair won the NDP leadership that he would decimate their support. And he has.
Forum Poll: http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2460/trudeaus-popularity-stays-high
Forum Poll: http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2460/trudeaus-popularity-stays-high
[poli nerd]
Actually, I think you'll find most new governments experience such a post-election rise right about now in their mandate. The opposition will, no matter what, act as if everything the new government does is wrong, but if the government actually does the shit they said they were going to do, then their advantage will be more permanent / meaningful. If they don't, or if they get tangled up in other dodgy things, then the public mood turns sour.
As for Mulcair, his party should probably stop acting as if he was the only reason they lost; he remained respected, so I doubt he had much to do with it. The public mood was one of backing a single anti-Harper force to cast down the Cons; there was more strategic voting than has ever been seen in a Canadian election. Canadian voters kept the Lib and NDP parties in a near tie for a long time, but finally chose their champion. Trudeau got to be Aragorn; Mulcair got to be Boromir (beard and all).
PS: I suppose that makes May our Galadriel.
[/poli nerd]
Actually, I think you'll find most new governments experience such a post-election rise right about now in their mandate. The opposition will, no matter what, act as if everything the new government does is wrong, but if the government actually does the shit they said they were going to do, then their advantage will be more permanent / meaningful. If they don't, or if they get tangled up in other dodgy things, then the public mood turns sour.
As for Mulcair, his party should probably stop acting as if he was the only reason they lost; he remained respected, so I doubt he had much to do with it. The public mood was one of backing a single anti-Harper force to cast down the Cons; there was more strategic voting than has ever been seen in a Canadian election. Canadian voters kept the Lib and NDP parties in a near tie for a long time, but finally chose their champion. Trudeau got to be Aragorn; Mulcair got to be Boromir (beard and all).
PS: I suppose that makes May our Galadriel.
[/poli nerd]
