You guys have no idea how happy I am. That is, I'm happy the responses have all been so intelligent. I've read each and every post and I can see the thoughtfulness and lack of rhetoric in each one, and also the lack of accusatory and derisive tones. Not only that, there are pointed questions that challenge viewpoints. You guys are great. Thanks for responding to this thread with your excellent brains.
OTBn said:
So … GBM, I believe you imply the U.S. must win the Iraq war… to avoid a war with Iran… to avoid impacting Iranian oil production… to avoid Chinese (economic) retaliation… to avoid U.S. bankruptcy… to avoid the implications to the world of a failed U.S. dollar.
No, I don't think that the US must win the Iraq war to avoid a war with Iran. Perhaps you think that Iran will continue to try to influence the Iraq war to the point where the US must meet Iran in a military confrontation. This is a distinct possibility, but I believe there are other ways around it. I believe a victory in Iraq will never come through military means alone, it will require the cooperation of the EU, Russia, China, and yes, Iran. The US will have to lead this in the beginning, and be willing to sincerely want peace in Iraq and give up it's power to control the government. This will avoid war with Iran. If war can be avoided, there would not be the prospect of Chinese "retaliation" and the rest of it.
OTBn said:
Do we continue to give the U.S. a free pass in its global quest for oil… because the U.S. dollar acts as the world’s reserve currency? A free pass?
What's a free pass? All nations, be they China, Russia, France, have the right to militarize their economies. In fact, these particular nations behave in exactly the same way. Each disguises their actions, but effectively, they try to manipulate power and economic situations through the use of diplomacy backed by force. The only way to avoid overt attempts at doing so, ie: unilaterism, is to use the UN and its institutions to back International Law such that all countries obey and account for their actions. Sadly under GWB, the UN (and its institutions) were targetted for subversion by the NeoCon agenda.
OTBn said:
It was another war, the Vietnam War, that drained the U.S. of its gold reserves – no longer was the U.S. dollar fixed to an ounce of gold – no longer would the U.S. pay it’s creditors with gold, effectively creating today’s politicization of the U.S. dollar where world currencies floated against the U.S. dollar and the U.S. dollar became the only global reserve currency. Another U.S. war…
An excellent point, however I do differ in your interpretation of history. In about 1971 Nixon made the move to "fiat" the US currency. This was as a consequence to pay for the Vietnam war, but there were two-fold reasons for doing so: to liberate the US dollar from fixed assets - thus allowing for debt financing and greater spending power, and to seize control of the world economy by making the US dollar as the defacto currency for trade in oil. It was a brilliant move.... probably the most strategically important move the United States has ever made.
OTBn said:
Today’s close relations between China and Russia, coupled with their ties to Iran, bring forward a significant triumvirate to challenge the U.S. on all levels. Strictly on an economic level, would a U.S. war with Iran threaten China to the point where it would no longer buy American debt? There have been other crises in the past – even some associated with oil – where countries opted to devalue their own currencies, to inflate their economies, rather than risk creating a U.S. dollar crisis, because those countries held so many U.S. dollars/bonds themselves. Would a U.S.-Iran war cause China to use its economic hammer?… and risk the implications to its own economy?
I believe that an Iranian war would risk the 25 year deal China has with Iran for Iran to be China's main supplier of oil. Would China use it's economic hammer? Yes, because it would have no choice. And furthermore, Europe, Mexico, Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, and even Canada are markets China can develop that in time would overcome the US market. One reason that America is a prime market for China is not just because the economic engine is there, but because America has the greatest world influence. That influence will be lost should America enter a war with Iran, which it would surely lose.
The world is producing oil at 2% surplus. That means that increasing demand for oil can only be sustained if the increase is maximum 2%. America's thirst for oil has not decreased at all (in fact, increased dramatically over the administration of GWB), and China and India's demands are ever increasing. Iran is 4% of world oil production. Should a war with Iran begin, that production will halt. Oil prices will shoot through the roof. GWB will be tempted to open the tap to US reserves with the great risk they will be emptied in a matter of months, possibly weeks. Other oil producers will use this weakening in the system to manipulate US actions, particularly if they have anti-US sentiments. One way they will do this is by choking production periodically. It is not hard to imagine Chavez, the Saudis, and others to want to squeeze the US into defeat. As oil prices shoot through the roof, the US dollar will weaken. China, anxious to avoid economic collapse, will switch out the US dollar to Euros before it becomes worthless. The speculation of this will cause others to follow suit, driving the US dollar further down faster.
OTBn said:
It’s long overdue for Canada to aggressively court trade/associations with China… to diversify and shift away from our too close ties to a U.S. that includes policies of unilateralism and militarism as key components of its foreign policy.
Canada will gain in the short run if there is a choke on oil production as a result of a war with Iran. But setting up trade infrastructure with China and the EU will take quite a bit of time. It will be very disruptive for the Canadian economy to do so.
sdw said:
It an error to think that China will become more powerful if the US becomes weaker. Most nations other than the US are not allowing the level of Chinese imports that is driving the Chinese economy. If the US can't afford the imports, China doesn't get the income.
China will not become more powerful in the short run. However, should the US become a prostrate nation, there will be adjustments in power balances and economic situations to create new infrastructures. China already has its tentacles out into nearly every part of the world. The list of nations China is dealing with is probably in the hundreds. It is hard to say whether or not China will become more powerful than the US, but it will certainly become more powerful than it is now. The US is not the only market (360 million consumers isn't all that much), and that market will become much less attractive if the US loses world influence, loses its position as the economic engine of the world, and is seen as militarily incapable.
westwoody said:
There are no resources to invade Iran.
The idea of invading Iran is a pathetic joke and an empty threat.
I don't believe it is an empty threat. There are approximately 200,000 US service men that could be deployed if needed. Another 200,000 could also be moved from Eastern Europe and South Korea and Japan combined. Also, Israel, the true reason for US aggression against Iran, would probably add its own forces without much hesitation. The question is, would GWB be stupid enough to do it. Of course I can not predict what he might do. But American Senators both Republican and Democratic are so worried about it, that they are using every platform to express their worry. When McCain, Byrd, and other moderates speak in these tones, it would be wise to listen because these guys do not bluff.
luckydog71 said:
US foreign policy has been the same since the mid 50s. We have changed leaders and we have changed control of Congress, but we have not have not changed our foreign policy..... Should we continue to be the policeman for the world or as others perceive it the aggressors of the world?….. I vote no
You are absolutely right that US foreign policy has not changed regardless of who the Presidents are or who has control of Congress. Be it Democratic under Clinton, or Republican under Reagan, US foreign policy has essentially been the same. I vote that the US be the policeman for the world, but in a different way. I vote for worldwide pan-Americanism. I vote for the US be the shining star that leads the world to peace, prosperity, and stability through a strong military, through NATO, through the UN, through respect for its Allies and its enemies, through the backing of international law, through proper fair trade agreements, etc. America is a nation of peoples from the world's nations, and it can do it if it so chooses. I don't want this unitaliarism on the foreign front, nor this despotism in the GWB administration.
HankQuinlan said:
The only way out that could achieve anything for Iraq would be to negotiate some sort of regional self-governments, enforced by other countries in the region. The US would also have to give up any claims to the oil. This would also be a total defeat for US policies, so it won't happen soon.
Sadly, I think you are right. GWB absolutely will not admit defeat, which is what will prevent him from recognizing the total defeat to US policies this has been. The danger now is whether or not he will make the next big mistake.
BC Visitor said:
On another note, I don't see China doing anything to hurt the US. Kill our economy and China's economy crashes also. Who do you think buys those chinese exports?
The US market is only 360 million strong. There are other markets out there, with greater numbers.
MissingOne said:
I'm no economist, but consider a counter-argument. Maybe one of the biggest weaknesses the US has right now is that so many foreign powers control so many US dollars. If the US had tighter control of its own currency perhaps it would be in stronger position.
Maybe having the national currency as a de-facto world currency actually weakens a nation. I notice that the Chinese are very careful to not let their currency "loose" on world markets.
It is a big weakness for so many foreign powers to control the US dollar. It is the debt funded by these powers, and one day the debt must be reconciled. But having a defacto world currency does not weaken a nation, as it was one of the key elements in the US gaining predominance as the world's economic engine. The Chinese are careful not to let their currency float to artificially keep the value suppressed so that it is very attractive to buy Chinese goods. It is not to prevent it from being the defacto currency.