What’s next? How do we transition around Covid-19?

[VinVan]

Okay, none of us are epidemiologists, but we’re reasonably informed citizens. We’ve been cloistered for a more than a month and it’s obvious we are not going to get to zero until there is a vaccine. How do we:

1. Migrate out of our homes.
2. Get back to work.
3. Get back to dinners with friends/family and out for food.
4. Get back to our fave SP

For me, I agree with the physical distancing and am abiding it, but I think it’s time to at least consider how we move forward because this is not sustainable. I’m sure the whole world is looking with keen interest at what is happening in Sweden.

Just to be clear, I’m not advocating abandoning physical distancing, but I think we need to consider how we move beyond it with an omni-present threat of Covid for the next 12 months. Also, I realize rendering any prescription is fraught as we are learning new things about Covid-19 daily. For example, there are reports that dozens of patients who were clear of Covid-19 in S Korea have tested positive again...

Happy Easter, Passover, Ramadan, or whatever you may celebrate this weekend. Be safe.

 

[SirLancelot]

Great question.
I'm not sure there is a suitable answer. We would be rolling the dice to get back with a SP, but they need to live, and the drive to be with them is strong. A vaccine is the only answer and cannot come soon enough. Earliest indications that a vaccine would be available for everyone after a massive ramp up in production would be 18 months from now... We are talking early 2021 at best. Once a person has had this miserable, horrible and potentially life threatening disease, they will have antibodies and be protected. With evidence that they have been in hospital ICU and isolation, they might be considered safe (after enduring a horrific hospital stay). But there are no studies yet to confirm this person will not continue to spread the virus despite not having further symptoms, and will they be another source of transmission after contact with more infected clients?

 

[jamasianman]

You can get the coronavirus again after recovering from it. A woman in Japan had it happen and some Chinese people reportedly had it twice.

Also we don't know the immunity period for recovering. They might be safe for a week, a month or only a few days. Its hard to tell because its a new virus and it has a whole slew of new rules.

Some people are ambivalent on the whole thing thinking they can just recover, but the youngest recorded deaths were 14 years old and a woman in her 20's. I know a lot of peoppe miss going out to see sp's and go for restaurants, but in my opinion summer is over.

 

[wetnose]

Until there is a vaccine or cure, what we really need is mass testing, plus a comprehensively equipped/staffed isolation/treatment facility. No quarantine at home/hotel - once someone is tested positive, they're whisked away to the facility in a special isolation vehicle. No ifs/buts so the population is protected.

We'd also need teams of contact tracers (Wuhan @ 1 point had 1,800 teams) to chase down all possible exposure for testing. So if a confirmed positive case went to a dance practice/language class/AA meeting/conference, then all of the attendees, their families and co-workers would get notified and tested. Isolated & treated if tested positive.

 

[VinVan]

So here’s another vexing question:

If the case is that the virus is so slippery that we cannot create antibodies to protect ourselves, how can we expect a vaccine to be effective since it works on the same principles? Will a vaccine also not be rendered ineffective, if in fact humans cannot create antibodies?

And Wetnose, if the new world order is as you suggest, will Covid-related industries be a significant part of the new economy? Like the pet bed producer in Coquitlam that pivoted to making PPEs, will an entire business ecosystem be needed for Covid? Fewer sit down restaurants and more takeout, more healthcare workers, teachers specialized in distance education....

 

[appleomac]

So here’s another vexing question:

If the case is that the virus is so slippery that we cannot create antibodies to protect ourselves, how can we expect a vaccine to work since it works on the same principles? Will a vaccine also not be rendered ineffective, if in fact humans cannot create antibodies?.

The idea of vaccinations is never about the vaccine working 100% of the time on 100% of the population. If a vaccine's success rate is some threshold, and if some threshold of the population is vaccinated the "side effect" is that even if what we are vaccinating against still exists in the world then the virus' ability to "gain a foothold" and infect large amounts of the population is dramatically minimized. Vaccines are not a cure per se, nor do vaccines eliminate that which we are trying to vaccinate against - it's merely a form of mass containment (limiting infections to the point it is not a major concern). Measles, polio, etc. You can still get it, but because vaccines were discovered and large portions of the population were vaccinated, generally (at least in Canada) those things are not a huge problem.

 

[VinVan]

The idea of vaccinations is never about the vaccine working 100% of the time on 100% of the population. If a vaccine's success rate is some threshold, and if some threshold of the population is vaccinated the "side effect" is that even if what we are vaccinating against still exists in the world then the virus' ability to "gain a foothold" and infect large amounts of the population is dramatically minimized. Vaccines are not a cure per se, nor do vaccines eliminate that which we are trying to vaccinate against - it's merely a form of mass containment (limiting infections to the point it is not a major concern). Measles, polio, etc. You can still get it, but because vaccines were discovered and large portions of the population were vaccinated, generally (at least in Canada) those things are not a huge problem.

Thanks Applemac for that.

And I guess the question becomes how can a vaccine actually be effective if it’s purpose is to act as a catalyst for the humane body to produce antibodies against the virus from which it is derived if we have seen cases where theoretically those antibodies should exist (as is the early evidence that about 40 people who have had Covid in South Korea were cleared as recovered then either became reinfected or reactivated) and yet are presumably not able to prevent reinfection?

In order for the herd protection to work, the vaccine has to at least inoculate a significant part of the population (60-85%, depending on the R0 of the virus) in order for it to be preventative. This news of reinfection/reactivation throws in an entire new variable into an already complex equation.

 

[Miss Hunter]

The idea of vaccinations is never about the vaccine working 100% of the time on 100% of the population. If a vaccine's success rate is some threshold, and if some threshold of the population is vaccinated the "side effect" is that even if what we are vaccinating against still exists in the world then the virus' ability to "gain a foothold" and infect large amounts of the population is dramatically minimized. Vaccines are not a cure per se, nor do vaccines eliminate that which we are trying to vaccinate against - it's merely a form of mass containment (limiting infections to the point it is not a major concern). Measles, polio, etc. You can still get it, but because vaccines were discovered and large portions of the population were vaccinated, generally (at least in Canada) those things are not a huge problem.

Vaccines are designed to activate an immune response and create antibodies. Usually when we are exposed to an infectious disease naturally this causes a superior immune response compared to what a vaccine causes. Natural exposure often will cause lifetime immunity. When we get vaccinated, booster shots are often necessary. But if natural exposure to Covid-19 isn't causing immunity .... what are the chances a vaccine will manage do any better?

Hopefully its just minority of Covid-19 cases that are getting infected more than once.

 

[Mikehma]

You can get the coronavirus again after recovering from it. A woman in Japan had it happen and some Chinese people reportedly had it twice.

Also we don't know the immunity period for recovering. They might be safe for a week, a month or only a few days. Its hard to tell because its a new virus and it has a whole slew of new rules.

Some people are ambivalent on the whole thing thinking they can just recover, but the youngest recorded deaths were 14 years old and a woman in her 20's. I know a lot of peoppe miss going out to see sp's and go for restaurants, but in my opinion summer is over.

If that is true, then a vaccine is irrelevant.

 

[appleomac]

Vaccines are designed to activate an immune response and create antibodies. Usually when we are exposed to an infectious disease naturally this causes a superior immune response compared to what a vaccine causes. Natural exposure often will cause lifetime immunity. When we get vaccinated, booster shots are often necessary. But if natural exposure to Covid-19 isn't causing immunity .... what are the chances a vaccine will manage do any better?

Hopefully its just minority of Covid-19 cases that are getting infected more than once.

Lifetime immunity (i.e. get it once and never again) is not the only pathway to a functional vaccine.

 

[wetnose]

And Wetnose, if the new world order is as you suggest, will Covid-related industries be a significant part of the new economy? Like the pet bed producer in Coquitlam that pivoted to making PPEs, will an entire business ecosystem be needed for Covid? Fewer sit down restaurants and more takeout, more healthcare workers, teachers specialized in distance education....

If we can find a fast, accurate test AND we develop an extensive contact tracing/isolation + treatment apparatus, then everything can mostly get back to normal. This is what South Korea did and it worked for their 1st outbreak. It's working again for their 2nd outbreak.

Failing which, we need a vaccine and cure. So everybody gets tested and then they either get vaccinated or treated. No exceptions, no excuses.

If we can't come up with any of the above, then yes, we'll have to adapt and innovate. The alternative is that we let COVID19 run wild and we become Bergamo.

 

[lenny]

Ki said that South Korea is already planning ahead, brainstorming ways the country can practice "everyday distancing" that would introduce more sustainable lifestyle changes rather than temporary campaigns.

For instance, instead of having all children arrive and leave school at the same time, an alternative would be conducting half of the coursework online and half in-person to reduce the number of students in class. Rearranging lunch tables so students sit in a zig zag rather that adjacent to each other is also being taken into consideration.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...ed-by-uptick-in-coronavirus-cases/ar-BB12bDaj

 

[Miss Hunter]

Lifetime immunity (i.e. get it once and never again) is not the only pathway to a functional vaccine.

That isn’t what I said.

 

[Miss Hunter]

I’ll try again...

Sometimes it’s very difficult to manufacture an effective vaccine. HIV infection, for example, causes an immune response that causes the body to manufacture antibodies. And, in general, it is a strong immune system response. But those antibodies are ineffective of eliminating the virus. And scientists have been trying for how long now to find an effective vaccine against hiv, yet still we don’t have one.

I truly hope this isn’t the case with Covid-19, but the fact that some people seem to be getting reinfected (or the virus is lying dormant in the body and then reactivating itself) in a relatively short period of time raises my eyebrows.

 

[Miss Hunter]

I don’t see this going away anytime soon. I think we need to find a way to adapt, and not just to Covid-19 but to the threat of a resurgence in the battle against infectious diseases overall.

Btw... the market that Covid-19 apparently came from has recently been reopened. WHAT THE FUCK??!!

 

[Lo-ki]

Btw... the market that Covid-19 apparently came from has recently been reopened. WHAT THE FUCK??!!

Did you expect any different....... CHINA is not your friend and never will be.