Welcome to the first day of trading in 2016

[sdw]

Jesus....I just moved significant money into the market, the first week of January.
Your a wealth of info SDW.....Maybe I should have hired you to manage the funds.
I was considering paying off my Ranch as that is a gauranteed bonus in my life.
{Yes I meant it when I said it was significant**
I went with quite conservative investments at first then I plan to move into more risk after six months, to let things settle.
My investment advice would be...Watch what I do...And do the exact opposite, and you'll be fine.

I think this is a time to be very conservative, do a lot of due diligence and avoid any and all investment houses that don't show profitable advice over the past 5 years. If you can't make money in good times, sure as hell is hot - you can't make money during bad times. Even Warren Buffett isn't making money right now. But he's only lost 1.82% vs 2.86% on an ETF market tracker fund.

 

[Lupo]

The best feeling is to hold cash on days like today. 2016 just getting started still lots of uncertainty in the US market and US$.
Question is when will oil or the market bottom? The hardest part is not to buy when everything drops so much.

 

[87112]

The stock market has been a rocket ship straight up held up by the Fed. Wonder if they will play nice and rescue again.

 

[sdw]

The stock market has been a rocket ship straight up held up by the Fed. Wonder if they will play nice and rescue again.

A lot of "Investors" have actually borrowed money to invest. This was made attractive by the low interest rates and the fact that it is possible to make money in the Stock Market if you are disciplined, do your research and refrain from "churning".

Problem is, a market like this is going to catch a lot of people holding with no way to repay their loan and no market to sell their stocks into.

That's why I have exited all but one Bank. I don't see Banks and Financials doing well in the near term and am quite willing to re-establish a position after their Stock Price has adjusted to reflect their new reality. The same is true of Energy companies. I don't think current prices reflect current reality.

When the Auto Industry and Banks were rescued in 2008-2009, they didn't seem to realize that governments thought that they were buying jobs and maybe a little empathy. What they got was Foreclosures on the people that might have been able to pay their mortgages, while the people with "Liar's Loans" got to walk away. What they got was closures of plants that the Industry had told the government they would keep open. What they got was 1.5 Trillion Dollars socked away in havens, while even poor paying jobs were closed down. What they got was mergers that make a lot of sectors the province of one or two companies.

If governments bail out the usual suspects again - then politicians are even stupider than I think they are.

 

[sdw]

We got a hint today with the TSX and S&P both down over 2 %, The Fed waited until after markets closed on Friday to reveal more bad economic news. It's a 3 day weekend in the states.

"As we noted earlier, the Atlanta Fed waited until the market close to reveal its most dire GDP estimate yet: a paltry 0.6%, matching the 0.6% recorded during the "harsh winter" first quarter:
one could be forgiven to think that during today's already chaotic selloff, the last thing traders and algos needed was news that US economic growth had ground to a virtual halt in the quarter in which Yellen decided to hike the interest rate.

Moments ago the Atlanta Fed was kind enough to explain the reason behind this surprising delay for a report it usually releases before noon. The answer: "technical delays" and "nothing nefarious."

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...l-market-close-reveal-lowest-q4-gdp-estimate-​

Monday and Especially Tuesday are going to be doozies. I think we are going to see a powerful "Adjustment". The Hedge Funds are ahead of us as usual. (no not O'Leary Funds) Practically all of them are reducing their position in Apple in response to Apple's potential sales. The Hedge Funds monitor Apple's suppliers and therefore have early warning of what Apple itself expects in the quarter.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-apple-funds-iphone-idUSKCN0UT246
http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ:AAPL&hl=en&ei=L6GZVrG9ENTWiALQ7KK4Aw

With any of the electronics manufacturers, one of the best ways to not over pay and at the same time participate is by buying the manufacturer's supplier's stocks. They are less volatile and subject to less "excitement" by the uninformed trader.

 

[sdw]

Sell everything ahead of stock market crash RBS suggests.

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/news...crash-say-rbs-economists/ar-CCqJoc?li=AAggFp5

While I was happy with my first response, The Globe and Mail published a much better response today. Also, I looked at the performance of RBS. They have lost 6.34% vs the market's 2.39%. http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:RBS&hl=en&ei=qoCaVsrNCMe9igKP1aho

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...s-to-avoid-as-markets-plunge/article28228530/

January 15, 2016
'Sell everything' and other bad ideas to avoid
By JOHN HEINZL
When markets go into a free fall, you can always count on reason to take a back seat to the powerful emotion of fear

As financial markets plunged this week, the bears were quick to seize the spotlight.

"This looks very much like 2008," warned Andrew Roberts, head of European economics at Royal Bank of Scotland. His questionable advice? "Sell everything except high-quality bonds."

If that didn't scare people sufficiently, he added this dire prediction: "Automation [is] on its way to destroy 30 to 50 per cent of all jobs in developed world."

Mr. Roberts wasn't the only market strategist forecasting severe pain ahead. Citing the strong U.S. dollar, Morgan Stanley warned that crude oil could fall to $20 (U.S.) a barrel. In Canada, Macquarie Capital Markets predicted that the loonie will tumble to a record low of 59 cents by the end of 2016 – and stay down for the next couple of years.

Is it possible that stocks, commodities and the Canadian dollar – all of which were pummelled mercilessly on Friday – will extend their losses in coming days? Absolutely. But is it time to start stockpiling dehydrated food and build a cabin in the woods? Emphatically, no.

As the gloomy predictions were piling up, a few level-headed commentators offered a more sober assessment of the market turmoil. Murray Leith, director of investment research at Odlum Brown in Vancouver, pointed out that the media – and investor psychology – tend to take over from fundamentals when markets get to extremes.

"During the good times, it's the most optimistic prognosticators that get all the media coverage," Mr. Leith said in a note. He cited former CIBC World Markets chief economist Jeff Rubin, who in 2008 predicted that oil would soar to $200 a barrel from $140 at the time.

"It turned out to be top-of-market talk. Now that the momentum has changed direction, it's the pessimists that are grabbing the headlines."

While Mr. Leith conceded that the global economy has its challenges, he said investors are overreacting because their emotions are now calling the shots. Whenever markets are rising or falling sharply, it's human nature to come up with theories to explain why the prevailing trend will continue, and this time is no different, he said.

"History teaches us that investors tend to get carried away buying when markets are high and rising, and selling when securities are depressed and falling," he said.

There are reasons to believe that the global economy will avert a recession, he said. The U.S. economy remains strong, monetary policy is supportive and energy prices are low. What's more, many businesses are thriving: Even as markets were plummeting this week, General Motors lifted its 2016 earnings guidance, raised its dividend and boosted its stock buyback program – hardly the actions of a company that fears a global meltdown.

In Canada, depressed commodity prices, high consumer debt and a "frothy" housing market are certainly sources of worry, but the low Canadian dollar and the strength of the U.S. economy suggest Canada will also avoid a "nasty recession. Sluggish growth is more likely," Mr. Leith said.

His wasn't the only voice urging investors not to cave in to the doom-and-gloom predictions. Howard Marks, co-chairman of U.S. alternative investment firm Oaktree Capital Management – who counts Warren Buffett among his fans – said a hard landing in China "certainly could have far-reaching effects," but "the bottom line for me is that a rerun of the global financial crisis isn't in the cards." He cited several reasons that a 2008-style meltdown is unlikely.

First, the economy and the stock market haven't experienced a boom, so there probably won't be a bust.

Second, leverage in the private sector has been reduced, particularly among the banks, where it has dropped dramatically.

"Finally, the main villain in the crisis was subprime mortgage-backed securities [MBS]. The raw material – the underlying mortgages – was unsound and often fraudulent. The structured mortgage vehicles were highly levered and absurdly highly rated. And the risky tranches ended up in banks' portfolios, causing them to require rescues," Mr. Marks said in a memo.

"Importantly, this time around I see no analog to subprime mortgages and MBS in terms of their combination of fragility and magnitude."

Is everything hunky dory? No. But the stock market knows that, and it has already plunged to reflect the lowered expectations. The mistake many investors make is assuming that, if things are bad now, they have to get much, much worse.

Sell everything? No thanks. If this keeps up, the panic-stricken will soon be throwing away perfectly good stocks at ridiculously low prices, and that's when smart investors will want to be buying, not selling indiscriminately.

I also read the Globe and Mail's apologist in chief's missive on why we need to continue to support the Saud Royal Family. He's wrong, and it doesn't really matter what he thinks because the process has already started in Saudi Arabia. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...tives-than-the-house-of-saud/article28223036/

Michael Bell
Regional reality: There are worse alternatives than the House of Saud

MICHAEL BELL

Special to The Globe and Mail

Published Friday, Jan. 15, 2016 3:27PM EST

Last updated Friday, Jan. 15, 2016 4:08PM EST

Michael Bell teaches at Carleton University and advised Justin Trudeau on foreign policy before the recent federal election. He served as Canada’s ambassador to Jordan, Egypt and Israel.

Former Liberal foreign minister Lloyd Axworthy is deploring the decision of the Trudeau government to proceed with the sale of General Dynamics’ light armoured vehicles (LAVs) to Saudi Arabia, given that country’s appalling human rights record. Mr. Axworthy is a man of outstanding principle. But, irony of ironies, even the Conservative party, which initiated and signed the deal, is trying to score points on the human rights front by attacking the present government’s decision to follow through.

The Saudi record has been highlighted most recently by the execution of 47 prisoners earlier this month on grounds of national security. Among the executed was prominent Shia cleric Nimr al-Nimr, who had called for the abolition of the monarchy. Largely ignored is that the great majority of those killed were Sunni activists associated with Islamic State, all seeking the demise of the Saudi regime and its replacement by the extremist caliphate. Such executions are totally unacceptable whatever the circumstances.

However, one only has to look at the Syrian and Iraqi tragedies to conclude there are far worse alternatives than the House of Saud, both for the region and the international community.

Economic, political and strategic problems have beset the ruling family; increasingly cash-strapped, the government’s ability to buy off its citizens with massive subsidies is no longer sustainable. Given its absolutist mentality, it feels threatened by growing internal dissent, particularly by its restless and discriminated-against Shia population, which is largely located in the eastern provinces among the oil fields. It is challenged by Iranian ambition not only domestically with the Shia, but throughout the region: Yemen, where its military intervention is inconclusive; Iraq, where the Shia majority dominates; and Syria, where the Assad regime and its Russian allies threaten Sunni emergence. It fears the loss of the American security cocoon.

Unlike Iran, with its long historic and imperial tradition, its well-established institutional governance framework, its societal cohesion, relative pluralism and assertive if threatening foreign policy, Saudi Arabia is inherently a weak state. Riyadh is obsessed with the belief that Tehran’s growing international legitimacy in the wake of the nuclear agreement threatens the ruling family’s own security (and indeed the country’s – for the two are often equated), if not survival. As exaggerated as this may be to any dispassionate analyst, it is real. It lives with burning intensity in the ruling princes’ minds, particularly that of the 30-year-old deputy crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman.

If the Saudi royal family were to fall, it would result in a massive destabilization of the Arabian Peninsula. Does this mean we should write them off in a world when hardball is the only game, where no regional standards meet ours? Are we to write off the interest displayed by the smaller Gulf States – Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates – in acquiring LAVs because of their alleged human rights violations (which are less spectacularly evident in the international media)?

To do so would mean single-issue politics, in this case human rights, should invariably trump all other considerations, including international and regional stability, security and our own economic well-being. If so, we should immediately consider the future of our relationship with other noteworthy human rights violators, perhaps beginning with China.

Unfortunately, we live in a highly imperfect world where it is beyond our capacity to change the primordial behaviour of other states within their own borders, no matter the legitimacy of our concerns. As members of the international community we live in a web of immensely complicated contending interests where to be effective we must be realists.

We have to ask ourselves whether a rough balance of power in the Middle East, as shambolic as it is, better suits Canadian interests than the fall of the Saudi dynasty, which would further destabilize an entire region. These LAVs may just maintain a semblance of equilibrium. Nor can we ignore that this latest deal (we have been selling LAVs to the Saudis for decades) affects 3,000 jobs over 15 years, and is worth $15-billion to the Canadian economy. Hefty penalties would apply were we to renege.

The Trudeau government has committed itself to review our arms-sales policy and there is no doubt in my mind that they will. They may revise our criteria or the application of our current policies. There may be consultations with our closest multilateral partners on common practice. But to pull the plug on this deal now just doesn’t hold water.

 

[sdw]

Conrad Black has an article on the effect of China's Anti-Corruption Campaign on their economy. When the Xi government took over from the Deng government in late 2012, the Chinese economy was ticking right along. Now, there is the Anti-Corruption Campaign, Currency Controls and a Devalued Yuan. The Xi government had already been seeing a slowdown, starting in mid 2013. However, Xi and the people around him are so determined to return to when the Communist Party controlled when a person breathed, that they can't stop what they are doing. The smart entrepreneur has probably already moved their money out of China to safer havens like Vancouver Real Estate. Now the ex-pat community is beginning to wonder if it's safe to stay in China or if it's a good time to return home.

http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/conrad-black-how-the-chinese-slowly-protest

China’s greatest senior level government purges and its greatest roll-back of freedom of expression since the lunacy of the Maoist Cultural Revolution almost 50 years ago have been occurring for several years and have been relatively passively noticed in the world. Where in earlier times purges were allegedly on ideological lines, the innovation of the recent weeding out of large numbers of senior officials has been billed as an attack on corruption in a series of retributive waves. As the Chinese government is notoriously corrupt, the concept is popular in the country. Huge numbers of officials simply extort money from the citizenry, and the Chinese Navy has even been known to steal the catch of fishing trawlers.

Ideological disputes were practically always just common or garden struggles for power and did not enjoy much public attention or concern until they became mass reigns of terror rooting out and brutalizing vast numbers of the unoffending, in the Stalinist tradition. President Xi Jinping is making a forceful attempt to silence dissent within the Communist Party with disciplinary rules that have led to the firings of a variety of ostensibly powerful and non-political people for “improper discussion” of the regime’s policies. Among those dismissed for this rather arbitrary reason are a senior academic, a chief of police, and the editor of a prominent newspaper.

Beneath the apparent policy issues is Xi’s attempted reversal of decades of gradual liberalization toward collegiality of leadership and what was called “Intraparty democracy” (in the absence of it at any other official level). He is retrieving from decades of disuse the Maoist formula of absolute rule but packaging it as the people’s vengeance on the malefactors of high office, who the president and his supporters claim are tainting the regime and desecrating the state by their avaricious abuse of office.

This does not entail the tortuosity of reviving a previously discredited former leader, as would be the case in any resurrection of Stalin, after he was violently denounced at the Twentieth Party Congress in 1956 and evicted from what had become the Lenin and Stalin Tomb in Red Square. Mao was never airbrushed down from the secular worship he received in his 27 years of absolute government and so emphasis of some of his methods now is not a tight-rope act of official history. ...

Over the weekend, the Xi government announced a re-newed commitment to "purging corruption". This, as Shanghai fell another 5%.

In China, if you are one of the 88 million members of the Communist Party - you have an opportunity to lead or manage. If you are not a member you farm, work in a factory, or some other dead end job. The "Corrupt" people that are transferring their wealth out of China, along with their families - are all high ranking members of the Communist Party. It's just turning out that they aren't the "right" kind of Communist for Xi.

I think that the world is about to become very sorry that they concentrated so much production ability in China.

In the Persian Gulf, the first day of sanctions being lifted from Iran has resulted in a 5% drop in stock prices. http://www.wsj.com/articles/gulf-stock-markets-tumble-as-iran-deal-takes-effect-1453036757

So, Monday for Canadians and Tuesday for Americans are going to be "Interesting".

 

[westwoody]

the Globe and Mail's apologist in chief's missive

That was appalling. Maybe it was written for them by General Dynamics.

 

[sdw]

That was appalling. Maybe it was written for them by General Dynamics.

It illustrates why western governments so often get international issues wrong. Not only do they listen to the person who wrote that piece, but they make policy based on it.

I read it and asked myself "what is he invested in, who pays him?"

The reality is, and has been since the 1990s - "Islamic Terrorism" is based and financed in Saudi Arabia and is Sunni. Sure, the Shia will kill you if you spit on their religion, on their street, in their country, but they don't fly planes into buildings. It's the Sunni/Salafi/Wahhabi interpretation of Islam that believes in forcible conversion of non-believers and it's entirely the creation of the House of Saud and the House of Al-Shaykh who jointly control Saudi Arabia.

I think that being an ex-pat in Beijing or Shanghai, China is going to be very much like being an ex-pat in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Anyone that has worked in Riyadh knows that you are always being watched and a mistake can be the death of you. In China, there was always some watching being done, but if you were making statements about the Chinese Government - you just got put on a plane and told "don't come back". I understand that that is changing under the Xi government.

 

[sdw]

Canadian Business has an article on the causes of this year's Bear Market
http://www.canadianbusiness.com/inv...ket-is-tanking-right-now-and-what-comes-next/

Why the stock market is tanking right now, and what comes next

It’s been one of the worst starts to the year ever for the world’s stock markets. All the more reason to keep your nerve
Jan 20, 2016 Mark Brown

Look around the global market place and you’d be hard pressed to find anywhere in the green. Out of hundreds of major global indices fewer than 20 are positive; you have to look to Slovakia (up 5% year to date) to find one of the few bright spots.

Everywhere else, it’s red—blood red, if you ask anyone owning equities. Today alone, the S&P/TSX Composite at one point was down 4%, although it’s since eased back and finished the day down 1.33%. And it’s not just Canada that’s feeling the pain. The benchmark U.S. indices, likewise, aren’t far behind, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 1.56% and the broader S&P 500 down 1.17%.

Such single day losses are always tough to swallow, but these drops come after an almost continuous stream of losses since the start of the year, with barely a whiff of a positive market response to act as a buffer. It’s been like this since the opening bell on January 2, the first day of trading for the year. It’s as if the market turned the page on 2015 and entered an entirely new reality.

It’s not, of course. Here is what need to know about the selloff and what it’s going to take to stop it:
The source of the instability

According to Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments’ director of global macro strategy, there is a major policy divergence between the US and China. On the one hand, the U.S. central bank is in moving into tightening mode, while on the other is China’s central bank is devaluing its currency as that country deals with a growth recession (despite the positive GDP number they are reporting publicly). By some accounts, China’s currency is overvalued by as much as 15 to 20%.

“When the world’s second-largest economy is tied to the largest economy and they are on different paths, it creates tensions,” he says. While this pain may feel more acute now, this is really just a continuation of what has been going on for six to nine months. The seeds of this selloff were planted back in August: at the time, China’s central bank suddenly devalued its currency as a sort of shot across the bow of the U.S. Federal Reserve when it was preparing to start tightening interest rates. The Fed blinked, says Timmer, but only briefly, as the U.S. central bank went ahead with a rate hike in December.

For the past six years investors have grown addicted to easy money with the help of Quantitative Easing policies, but now that those polices have ended we’re seeing the other side of it. “It’s like a patent going through withdrawal,” says Timmer. While he isn’t convinced we’re seeing a repeat of the market dive we endured in 2008, he says this is still serious liquidity event.

Coming into 2016 China’s central bank certainly didn’t help matters, says Paul Taylor, Senior Vice President and Chief Investment Officer for BMO Asset Management. The central bank introduced circuit breakers that were designed to stave off panic selling, but instead made things worse.
Slipping on oil

Oil prices are at US$26.76, their lowest point since 2003. (When adjusted for inflation that figure would be closer to US$11.23.) If you’re a Canadian producer it gets worse still: Western Canadian Select puts the cost of a barrel of crude from Canada at US$14.50 today.

In many ways, the steep selloff of oil is linked to the divergence between the U.S. and Chinese economies. China is no longer growing at 7 to 10%, which means less demand for commodities, explains Timmer.

There is another factor here too and that’s Saudi Arabia. In the past the Saudi’s would cut output to keep prices high, but with Chinese demand weakening the Saudi’s are using this as an opportunity to put non-conventional high cost producers out of business, says Timmer. It’s working. Producers in Canada and the U.S. aren’t making any money resulting in projects getting shut down and companies defaulting on their loans.

This could create an opportunity for investors. “The decline in oil is unsustainable,” says Timmer. “The more stress. The more projects will get shut, but that means oil is going to rocket back because there won’t be enough supply.” While much has been made about the lifting of sanctions against Iran oil and how it will only dump more oil onto a market that’s oversupplied, Timmer feels that’s already been priced in.
Return of the “Canadian peso”

The selloff of the Canadian dollar has been particularly abrupt. In October of last year, the loonie was trading at 77 cents to the U.S. dollar; today it’s worth a dime less. Given how important oil has been to the Canadian economy in recent years it shouldn’t come as a huge shock that the loonie is heavily correlated with the decline in the price of oil.

Although there seems to be no end in sight, investors like BMO are less keen on betting against the loonie today than they were a year ago. According to Taylor, all last year BMO was running a $1.2 billion short against the Canadian dollar versus the U.S. greenback. “We made $120-million off that hedge, but we’re off that hedge now” he says. Taylor believes oil will be higher at then end of 2016 than where it is right now and that will lift the loonie as well.
What’s next

What’s next? For starters, a rate-hike in March by the U.S. Fed is completely off the table, says Timmer, who expects the central bank will also signal that it intends to hold at this level for some time. That will take some pressure off the Chinese yuan, which should help stabilize that market.

For investors this could be a good thing, particularly for those who are light on equities in their portfolio. Timmer thinks we could see a “V” shaped market recovery like 2009, with a sharp bounce back for those parts of the market that have been particularly beaten down.

Taylor agrees, adding he expects to see institutional investors to start getting back into the market. “If we get through this two, three, four weeks without things coming unglued then we are going to see some of the people like ourselves stepping in to take advantage of this downside volatility.”

As rocky a start as we’ve had to 2016, investors need to remember we are only two and half weeks into the New Year. “The first thing investors should do is chill and not be overly concerned by what we are seeing,” says Taylor. Since the financial crisis the market really hasn’t experience a typical correction. “Emotionally, investors are just unprepared for the volatility,” he says.

“We think we are reaching the point of capitulation. Coming at it from the buy side… this is a time to pick away here.”

 

[sdw]

The author makes me happy, until a new fortune teller pens:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-20/canadas-other-problem-record-high-household-debt

The reason that household debt is so high is because money is almost free. If you have good credit and can demonstrate that you can re-pay the loan, the Banks are only too happy to lend you money. Banks almost beg you to take a Line of Credit.

I really don't think that if the BOC had lowered the rate, they would prevent the shut-ins that are happening in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Oil prices dropped again today and we are not near the bottom yet. Alberta is limited to pipelines that go to storage hubs in Roxana Illinois, Patoka Illinois and the main settlement hub in Cushing Oklahoma in the USA. The tanks at the storage hubs are all full. The Gulf Coast Refineries are not accepting Oil from the hubs because they have tankers bringing Arabian sweet crude to them. Sweet crude is easier to process than what we would like to sell them.

 

[wetnose]

More blood to be spilled soon - the Chinese imposed a 15 day hold on selling...that started on 8 Jan. The first trading day after the 15th day is Feb 1.

 

[sdw]

Does anyone really think that GM won't close the plant in Oshawa and move the jobs to the US? http://www.ctvnews.ca/business/gm-doesn-t-give-any-specifics-about-future-of-oshawa-plant-1.2746230 Oh, BTW GM is really grateful for the bailout Canada gave them. The money in the HSBC Zurich account is growing every month.

 

[sdw]

And finally a sea of Green to close the week. The Loonie is also up.

 

[sdw]

Well the market took Friday's gains back quickly. It seems that our BC Government has found a ready market for BC "Panda" Bonds in China. The initial offering was over subscribed by 200%.
http://www.vancouversun.com/index.html?__lsa=b904-a374

 

[sdw]

This may be the time to start looking deeply into companies that are interesting investments. There is an effort to stop the bleeding. The Chinese have set a new level for the Yuan and OPEC seems to be willing to set production limits and support higher Oil prices.

 

[FreeG]

I'm glad this thread came back to life, sdw!

I've always had the pipedream/Utopian wish that the world would accept that growth follows a logistics curve (the 'S' curve) and we're approaching the upper lip. Apple, Google, the Balkan Shale, etc simply CANNOT grow forever. Yet the pressures on companies to keep doing so is relentless and unsustainable (heaven forbid Apple doesn't introduce The Next Big Thing every 6 mos, else the world of hipsters will vaporize in a cloud of steamed milk). The days of unlimited growth are over, stop being desperate and going after every gram of oil, gold, frankincense and mur, and figure out how to make the best of what's left.

I'm hoping the next big growth market is in cradle-to-cradle recycling, the near 100% re-use of materials (by design, chemistry, manufacturing, & other processes) that optimize what resources are available for the 'have's so that the 'have nots' aren't revolting. As well as renewables - don't think they can supply 100% of our power 100% of the time? Well, let's invent the technologies that allow us to! (and its not just supplying power, its also reducing demand, sharing load across zones & times of the day, its really a very interesting problem).

Sadly, I'm not too optimistic over anyone at a company's board sharing this view (or what I consider "reality"). The urge to pound the competition into dust and come out ahead is too great in the human species. I've see too many stories & accusations against the likes of Goldman Sachs to trust that any large company will have a conscience beyond their bottom line, nor will they be ready to admit that unlimited growth is unsustainable.

A great book I recommend is "The Puritan Gift". Now, I'm pretty aetheist, but its not truly religious and its message on having a long-range vision & compassion beyond a company's profit margin ring true. As one (nearly defunct and still pretty weak) shipyard once used to proudly display at their gate: "We shall endeavor to build Great Ships. At a profit if we can, at a loss if we must, but always Great Ships." But, this culture to Do the Right Thing for people outside of a company appears to be extinguishing more & more and as sdw hints multiple times above, there are signs of further mad scrambles to save ones own skin and who cares what happens to the neighbors.

 

[sdw]

I'm glad this thread came back to life, sdw!

I've always had the pipedream/Utopian wish that the world would accept that growth follows a logistics curve (the 'S' curve) and we're approaching the upper lip. Apple, Google, the Balkan Shale, etc simply CANNOT grow forever. Yet the pressures on companies to keep doing so is relentless and unsustainable (heaven forbid Apple doesn't introduce The Next Big Thing every 6 mos, else the world of hipsters will vaporize in a cloud of steamed milk). The days of unlimited growth are over, stop being desperate and going after every gram of oil, gold, frankincense and mur, and figure out how to make the best of what's left.

I'm hoping the next big growth market is in cradle-to-cradle recycling, the near 100% re-use of materials (by design, chemistry, manufacturing, & other processes) that optimize what resources are available for the 'have's so that the 'have nots' aren't revolting. As well as renewables - don't think they can supply 100% of our power 100% of the time? Well, let's invent the technologies that allow us to! (and its not just supplying power, its also reducing demand, sharing load across zones & times of the day, its really a very interesting problem).

Sadly, I'm not too optimistic over anyone at a company's board sharing this view (or what I consider "reality"). The urge to pound the competition into dust and come out ahead is too great in the human species. I've see too many stories & accusations against the likes of Goldman Sachs to trust that any large company will have a conscience beyond their bottom line, nor will they be ready to admit that unlimited growth is unsustainable.

A great book I recommend is "The Puritan Gift". Now, I'm pretty aetheist, but its not truly religious and its message on having a long-range vision & compassion beyond a company's profit margin ring true. As one (nearly defunct and still pretty weak) shipyard once used to proudly display at their gate: "We shall endeavor to build Great Ships. At a profit if we can, at a loss if we must, but always Great Ships." But, this culture to Do the Right Thing for people outside of a company appears to be extinguishing more & more and as sdw hints multiple times above, there are signs of further mad scrambles to save ones own skin and who cares what happens to the neighbors.

We don't have greatness any more. If a person illustrates the ability to become great, the media brings them down. Their audience would rather that all be mediocre than one be acclaimed. A week ago, a team that had been working to detect gravity waves finally was able to demonstrate that their first detection was not in error. Already, they are being called frauds.

The last great President the USA had was Lyndon Johnson who tried to equalize the education offered to people of all races, who attacked the Jim Crow Laws that institutionalized racism in the USA.

Since then, the only good President was Ronald Reagan who was no match for Lyndon Johnson.

The presidency of the USA is now sold to the lobby group that can raise the largest amount of money and thus purchase the nomination of a political party and the following election. The winner of the coming election will have raised over a Billion dollars. The lobby group that was successful will expect to reap much more in the special treatment that they are afforded by "their" President.

The Financial and Legal Sectors (specifically the trial lawyers) raised $760,370,195 for Barack Obama for 2008 and a further $632,177,423 for 2012. They were repaid, that's why the bank bailout, that's why legal reform was stopped, that's why the Fed's lending rate to the banks is so low. If Mitt Romney had been elected a different lobby group would have been richly rewarded. America is on the decline because people of greatness have better things to do than enter the cesspool of politics.

Meanwhile, if you aren't born to wealthy parents able to afford Private Schools for your children - your children will be educated worse than in a Black Precinct in 1965. Children coming out of Public Schooling are barely literate. No wonder they vote on emotion and "what's in it for me" instead of a desire for a functional government.

Canada isn't in much better shape than the USA and Canada's tiny population limits the country.

Europe is a disaster. There are already riots and it's looking like the 1930s. We know where that lead.

We have far too many people that are uninterested in striving for alternatives where their continued comfort is not assured. I tried a while ago to have a conversation about energy in the future, I had to give up.

We are going to come out of this bottom in the markets into a recovery of about 5 years, then we will get another bottom. The 1% will become the .5%, then - after another cycle, the .25% until wealth is ultra concentrated and all other people are in thrall to those who control the money.

 

[westwoody]

Head of IKEA says it is indeed getting harder to sell things. He says society has reached what he called "peak stuff", most people are content with their sofa, TV, cellphone or computer. Selling them something new is going to get harder and harder. Most people with half a brain don't give a shit about spending their hard-earned cash on new stuff when the stuff they have is good enough.
This is going to be a big problem in an economy driven by consumer spending.

Re concentration of wealth: USA is well on the way to a feudal society. Very little upward mobility now that university is becoming inaccessible, working conditions are getting worse as labour competes with Bangladesh and Vietnam, and rich people close themselves off in gated communities. Democracy is a joke when elections at every level are so blatantly bought, look at Shillary Clinton sucking up to Wall Street at the same time as she tells the masses that she will put crooked bankers in jail. As if LOL.

 

[sdw]

This morning, the Sauds and Russia announced a production cap on Oil and Gas.
http://www.streetinsider.com/Commod...+freeze,+Iran+still+an+obstacle/11319434.html

Oil futures for March delivery are up 5%
http://www.nasdaq.com/article/nymex-brent-crude-soar-in-asia-on-output-cut-talks-cm579988