housing price drop
I think you're right, maybe even a little low in terms of a mere 20% drop. Prices in Vancouver have been out of line with rent to price ratios for decades, but eventually there comes a day of reckoning when portfolios have to be rationalized.
Unfortunately, there's an entire industry, including people in the media and even academia, who are involved in putting forward the theory that the Vancouver market is just so unique that nothing else really matters.
A few years ago, when materials prices were pretty much at their peak, I was told that actual construction costs for concrete apartment buildings had crept over the $200 per square foot mark. So the rest of your $600 or $700 per square foot is NOT a production cost, but a price paid for underlying property. That price is not determined by any resource scarcities, it's determined by supply and demand factors that are highly variable, zoning on the supply side and buyer psychology on the demand side.
Vancouver housing price dropping 20%? i agree that for condos and townhouses. as far as detached homes, i do not see that at all.
for people coming from Asia or other high density countries, the detached homes here are a bargain. 1-2 million CDN is nothing.
of course, i am not talking about your average person here, i am refering to the top 5-10% of people from Taiwan,China,Japan,India or Middle East.
For a lot of these people, Vancouver IS UNIQUE, believe it or not.These people will continue to dictate our house pricing.
For example, last year, because of my work, i had to spent some time with our Chinese partners/investors and show them around Vancouver. These senior level Chinese Party members were blown away with Vancouver and its fresh air,clean water and space. All i keep on hearing from these people were that they want to retire here...etc. I have also been to various parts of Asia due to work and I can tell you that other parts of the world is not in very good shape as far as living condition goes.
anyways, we have a good thing here, however, the secret is out. I can not remember now where i read this stat, but,it has been estimated that lower mainland population will double in the next 10 years - if you have a house in vancouver, watch it go up!