Van Sun: Dropping real-estate values are sending more BC'ers into financial crisis

Cosmo

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Jul 30, 2003
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Take note folks... in this article is another of the domino's that has begun falling in British Columbia... domino's which, one-by-one will make Vancouver become - as one Real Estate analyst described it on Friday - the epicenter of a massive real estate crash.




Bankruptcies climb in B.C.
Drop in real-estate values is sending homeowners to the poor house
Gerry Bellett, Vancouver Sun
Published: Sunday, October 26, 2008

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VANCOUVER - Dropping real-estate values are sending more British Columbians into financial crisis and causing a spike in personal bankruptcies, according to professional debt counsellors.

As the global financial crisis begins to kick in, nearly one in six U.S. homeowners are finding themselves owing more on the mortgage than the house is worth. Here in B.C., the number of personal bankruptcies is on the rise as real-estate values drop.

Federal Industry Ministry data show that B.C. consumer bankruptcy filings for August were up more than 10 per cent over the same period last year.

August also saw a 16.3-per-cent increase in proposal filings, an alternative to bankruptcy.

And that was an improvement over July, when B.C. consumer bankruptcy filings were up 14 per cent over the same period last year and proposal filings were up 20 per cent.

"It's a big jump," said B.C. Association of Insolvency and Restructuring Professionals director Lana Gilbertson. "We don't know if it will continue upwards, but during the recessions of 1981 and 1990-91 there were rapid increases in insolvency rates.

"Our professional community is seeing more and more individuals who can't sell their property for what they thought it was worth and who can't refinance or borrow more money against their property. They're stuck," she said.

For several years, Canadians have suffered from high levels of household debt, low rates of personal savings and feelings of stress about their finances, said Gilbertson.

"But a strong real estate market in B.C. kept many afloat as homeowners were able to use a growing equity in their property to offset their consumer debt," she said.


That's coming to an end, however, as a slowdown in the real estate market is seeing home prices dropping in many regions.

Gilbertson described the plight of one Metro Vancouver couple, both working and in their late 20s and expecting their first child next year.

They own a condo worth $250,000 and had increased their mortgage by $40,000 two years ago to pay off some debt.

"Over the following two years they have borrowed again to finance a web-based home business and have generally used up credit cards and lines of credit and personal loans, so that their unsecured debt is $105,000 in excess of their mortgage," said Gilbertson.


She said there wasn't any room in their household finances to adequately service the debt and there were no other assets to draw on. As well, the couple was facing a loss of income in 2009 when the wife took maternity leave.

Instead of the couple declaring bankruptcy, Gilbertson said she was able to negotiate a debt settlement of $40,000 to be paid to creditors over the next five years.

"It got them out of a hole. They are insolvent, but they've got a repayment plan in place and it is a lot better than their being bankrupt," she said.

While homeowners are increasingly at risk, those under the age of 35 and those on fixed incomes or pensions are also feeling the pressure of consumer debt, Gilbertson said.

She said bankruptcy trustees, many of whom were Chartered Insolvency and Restructuring Professionals, can help consumers look for alternatives to bankruptcy.

"They can provide debt and credit counselling and are the only professionals who can administer formal debt repayment or settlement strategies," she said.

Fees for the insolvency service are based on a fixed tariff reviewed by the superintendent of bankruptcy.
 

Cosmo

Riddle's unwrapped enigma
Jul 30, 2003
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Keep fanning the flames of fear.
No flames of fear... I'm just step by step laying out clearly what is coming in 2009 and laying waste to the arguments of those who think we are insulated from it.

Think subprime and the current house crisis in the US was a big deal ('cause that's what triggered our situation in BC right now)?

Well that's got nothing on the big story in the US over the next four months. This, from NBC, http://www.cnbc.com/id/27316653 is what is about to crush the US economy in the new year and make the recent $750 Billion bailout seem like chump change.

As for the rest of the world, I suggest this as mandatory reading. It comes from the Economist and outlines the emerging impact that the financial earthquake of the last month had (and is having) on world economies: http://www.economist.com/world/europe/displayStory.cfm?source=hptextfeature&story_id=12465279

As I said earlier, we are living in the midst of one of the most extraordinary times in history.

In November/December 1929, most people weren't really all that concerned that the stock market has suffered really big losses.

The full impact of what it had triggered was not really evident for another year or two and was not clearly evident until after 3-4 years.

I humbly suggest we are living at the start of a similar era and are just as blissfully unaware of what is swirling around us.
 

Cosmo

Riddle's unwrapped enigma
Jul 30, 2003
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Seriously though. I actually don't mind your posts. But I think you overstate the negative.
LOL... well... thank you for this part.

And who knows, in three or four months you may find me dragging up this post and hailing your wisdom.

But right here, right now...?

I side with understatement.

Which is why I will let news articles and blog reports connect the dots and reinforce the arguments I have already made.

Besides, those who really view the posts as a negative tirade... well... they ain't clicking on the post and reading this shite anyways.
 

mclovin76

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i like it ill buy when everything is dirt cheap, prices in vancouver are over inflated and its time for people to pay with cash instead of credit cards getting themselves into debt then putting it on their mortgage cause their house they put 0 down on made 50 gran in 1 year, now the house will lose 15-20 gran a year and people are gona have to stop using credit.
 

CJ Tylers

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I happen to know that some of my more "money-reckless" friends are in a very bad spot and will suffer greatly for this. They currently can't sell the condo that they are living in (which they do not have free title on yet) and have purchsed a town house that is now worth 30-60K less than they paid for it.

While a majority of canadians are more cautious than this, there are both canadians and investors that will be caught by this problem. Also, alot of canadians end up remortgaging in order to finance vacations, toys, braces, hope improvements etc

Anyone who did that recently is going to be in trouble.

I'll leap for joy when it bottoms out...maybe I'll be able to afford a home then... but I'll sure feel sorry for those that are facing hard times right now.
 

Stella_Hardon

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I appreciate Cosmo's contribution and observations :

I was aware of the falling real estate prices but the actions of some local developers surprized me.

As you know the Cecil was/is up for redevelopment. They had NO pre-sales and the project was suspended and there is now a fair bit of renovation to the Cecil strip club as it appears they intend to keep it running while the project is on hold.

A silver lining to the drop in real estate values ..
 

FunSugarDaddy

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Vancouver Sun published on Sunday?

Not that I have any doubt about the validity of the article, but since when did the Sun publish editions on sundays?

I was a long time Sun subscriber and they ran from Monday to Saturday and if you wanted a Sunday paper you bought the province.

Was this a special edition?

From my perspective those who are mortgage free aren't much affected unless this formed part of their retirement. Let's say that accounts for about 30% of the market. Those who bought more than 5 years ago but have mortgages less than 60% LTV, would likely account of about 50% of the market. So that leaves about 20% of the market to those who speculated or bought a property less than 2 years ago. Those are the people potentially in trouble.

So this sould be put into context. The vast majority of homeowners are simply giving back some of their unrealized gains.

I would suggest to you that the world wide stock market crash is a far more serious issue as there are a significant number of babyboomers only a couple of years away from retirement who have seen their retirement funds decimated. Anyone with a defined benefit plan, consider yourself fortunate.
 

lickrolaine

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there will be many possibilities for opportunity for those positioned right,and for those that are not,that is where most opportunities will come from.Call it life and life's cycle.
 

ezsmile

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Jan 5, 2003
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Being "underwater" on your home does not necesarily mean imminent foreclosure.

The risk on these underwater homes is that if the owner runs into financial difficulty and can't (note I said can't not won't) make the mortgage payments anymore. Then the bank may have to foreclose and try to sell the house to recover the monies owed. Therein lies the problem.

But, just because property values have declined and your house may now be worth less than what you have borrowed against it, does not mean the end of the world.
 

FunSugarDaddy

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This 20%???? (if this is the number...wherever it comes from or whatever it is) is what makes real estate pricing crash. When 20% of the demand is removed and not competing for the current supply of housing for sale it very much becomes a buyer's market.
This is merely an educated guess, it could be different by +/- 5% but it represent the percentage of those homeowners who due to the current drop in prices, may have mortgages in excess of the value of their homes. The vast majority of homeowners bought prior to the last 2 years or so, which is where house prices have currently corrected to.

Those who think we are in for a wholesale collapse doen't really understand the fundaments, which is that the collapse in the US was primarly predicated on homeowners who had adjustable rate mortgages couldn't pay the increase amounts and had foreclosure steps taken against them. This in turn dropped the value of other houses. Had variable reset mortgages not have existed I doubt we'd even be in this situation.
 

FunSugarDaddy

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Those who are already in an upside down mortgage have real issues. These are likely people who are in higher amortization period (30-40 yr) mortgages and are not going to put much of a dent in the borrowed amount before it is time to renew. With housing prices flat and likely to fall further, if the bank does not do a margin call before then, borrowers will need to come up with a big chunk of extra cash when their mortgage is up for renewal.
This is all true but three factors could mitigate this.

1. These mortgages are all insured, so it may be CMHC that ultimately cares
not the banks themselves and;

2. Regardless, the government may step in to allow for mortgages to exceed the values of the homes as long as the client isn't in default. In fact I suspect they will do something similar to this, if necessary and;

3. Most people in this situation have 5 year fixed mortgages, so they still have a few years before this becomes an issue and if they have variable mortgages, the payments towards their principal may have in fact increased.
 

trackstar

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All good points but there is some wild speculation on who was buying homes in Canada in the last few years. I am sure there is some legitimate data out there. But to make a logical assumption based on real estate pricing at record levels in most provinces in Canada, I venture to guess that the first time buyer with 5% downpayment or less accounts for a very low percentage. Maybe that percentage is slightly higher in Alberta.

I don't think we will have an issue with mortgage insurers going belly up. Pretty much all are insured by CMHC and GE Capital.

There is no doubt that homeowners who have just 5-10% equity right now(some may argue the % of equity is closer to 30%) are at risk. But I still think that the group that falls into that category (new home owners and those who borrowed against their home value) account for less than 5% of homeowners in Canada. (yes...more wild speculation). ;)
lol, those are wild speculations indeed. See if you can find any facts and figures to back that up.I think that either way you will have some very interesting results.
 

FunSugarDaddy

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You seem to be mixing two issues together which are related, but are also distinct from one another.

The credit crisis in the US relating to their mortgage market affects us all. The wholesale mortgage market is drying up and banks/financial institutions are beginning to stop lending to one another, lending institutions have started tightening right up, and this puts financial institutions ALL OVER THE WORLD AT RISK...including those here doing business in Canada. All financial institutions everywhere are on full red-alert right now. If you don't think this affects us you're delusional..
You have comprehension problems. Of course it affects us, it's the magnitude that's being discussed.

In turn...this means that there will be far fewer mortgages/mortgage money made available to our marketplace which thus decreases supply which in turn will increase the costs of borrowing money (translation - this increases our mortgage rates). Increasing interest rates is the catalyst that triggers huge downturns in any economy. Our central banks only have so much more room to lower their lending rates right now...there will come a point where they can't do much more to offset market rate increases...
We are a long way from this. We have plenty of room to lower rates, our bank rate can easily drop a full 100 basis points, if need be. As for mortgage rates, I just remortgaged one of my properties over the weekend for prime -.25 which translates into 4.00% how is that going to hurt the economy. Even now where prime +1.5% is being offered, it's still under 6% as are 5 year mortgage rates. (I get this e-mailed to me weekly so these are current rates)


Variable reset mortgages are simply the first casualties because they are affected quickest. However, fixed term mortgages over shorter terms (like 6 month, 1 year, 2 year etc.) are due to be renewed over the short term. These homeowners won't be affected if they had equity in their homes when they mortgaged or if home values didn't depreciate....
You really need an update on what current mortgage rates are, otherwise this discussion is useless, all these closed rates are between 4-6%.



The problem, however, is that homes are depreciating now... which is the other separate but related issue to the credit crisis because the credit crisis is a direct contributor to a decrease in demand which lowers housing prices in the marketplace. There are many, many homeowners in Canada (and don't fool yourself into believing the press when they say there isn't because there is) who purchased with zero equity with 30 or 40 year mortgages and thus their payments over the term of the mortgage contributed virtually nothing to their prinicipal mortgage debt. Their debts now will be virtually the same as they were when they bought. ....
hmm, some people bought houses over the last few years and have very little equity in them..what a shock. And assuming they're still making their payments that's a problem because ???

Furthermore, for many of these new developments, people bought homes with subvented (low, developer assisted) interest rates which made homes artificially affordable. In addition, the developers had programs where they paid for the first 6 months/1 year of payments etc. Now, many of these owners are going to find themselves with hefty payments that they thought they could afford, but interest rates are going to go up and they may not be able too now...and they may not be able to refinance because the value of their home is lower than the mortgage. Many of these people are just going to walk away from their homes

Coupled with all this is an oversupply of new homes in our market and prices which the average wage earner cannot afford - our market is driven by foreign investors (Asia/US/Iran) who are now finding asset liquidity to be a huge problem. .....
What's your definition of a huge problem?? 10% correction, 20% correction, 30% correction??

New real estate developments cannot give away their product now. This will push pricing down even further.

The credit crisis in the states is going to drag us down irrespective of whether you think Canadian lenders have been lending responsibly or not. You're on drugs if you don't think that its not going to affect us.

In turn, the credit crisis can/will be a catalyst for a real estate market that is ripe for a crash of epic proportions which is a separate but certainly related issue.

I'm not mixing the two issues up at all, where are you getting that from. I'm not saying your wrong, you're just being over dramatic and over stating your case. Yes there will be correction, it's already happening. No there isn't going to be a real estate crash, for a host of reasons you either don't understand or don't agree with.

Time will tell who's right, depending your defination of a "crash"

In the US their mortgages are non recourse mortgages, ours aren't. That alone is a huge difference.
 
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FunSugarDaddy

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1) These mortgages are "all insured" only as long as the mortgage insurer stays in business. .
Are you suggesting the CMHC and other home insurance companies are going to go bankrupt? Based on what?

2) I can tell you that I will be screaming bloody murder if the government uses my tax money to bail out a) irresponsible lenders, and b) idiotic purchasers who bid up prices and drove everybody else out of the real estate marketplace.
You're behind the 8-ball on this, as the Canadian government has already agreed to help to the tune of 20B.

3) Where do you get the statistics that most people have 5 year mortgages? I'm not sure this is necessarily true.
Well it is according to this website and based on my personal experience.

http://www.firstfoundation.ca/mortgage-glossary/
 
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FunSugarDaddy

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But I still contend that those with 10% equity or less from peak levels will have a real challenge on their hands to renew.
That's certainly a possibility, depends on how long their mortgage terms are for, most in this situation choose 5 year terms so if they bought say 2 years ago, and the housing prices haven't corrected by then, then yes they may well have a problem, depends on whether the bank wants an appraisal or not. Those who took 3 year terms might well have a problem sooner, and undoubtedly there are some who have problems now.
 

FunSugarDaddy

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So are you trying to say that the american credit crisis will not affect the Canadian financial systems to a similar magnitude???? I hate to break this to you, but our system is very (if not completely) reliant on the health of the american financial infrastructure. If american lending institutions stop lending on the wholesale markets this will greatly impact the ability of nearly every lender in the world.

You were suggesting that people don't understand the fundamental issue. This is the fundamental issue...and clearly you don't understand this. If the american wholesale lending market dries up due to bad debt...the world's wholesale markets will collapse because US lenders obviously are the biggest player in this market.



The Canadian central banks (as do most other nations) typically base their wholesale rates off of the US as its benchmark...which has now dropped its rate to 1% and they are talking about cutting it below this level. This has never happened in the history of the US. Again, the US is the main supplier of wholesale funds in the world. There isn't much more room (1% to be exact) for the US fed to cut its rate.




Of course I know what these closed rates are. However, these rates are not closed for indefinite terms...these loans will come due at some point. Furthermore, this does not guarantee that these rates will be offered at this level tomorrow, next month or next year. We have seen interest rates spike up in the somewhat recent past ...if our banks see lending as high risk in a particular economic climate interest rates will spike. You are making a very risky assumption that the retail banks' interest rates are not going to rise even though the risk of lending is perceived to be spiralling upward.





Because if home values drop below mortgage balances, PEOPLE WALK AWAY FROM THEIR HOMES AND THEREFORE YOUR "ASSUMPTION" CAN NO LONGER BE ASSUMED.




The "huge problem" I was referring to was the liquidity of foreign investors being affected by the world markets. Maybe you're the one with a comprehension problem.




NOTHING IN THE REAL ESTATE MARKET IS SELLING RIGHT NOW. LENDER'S HAVE ALL BUT STOPPED LENDING TO ANYONE THAT ISN'T GOLD BALLS. THE STOCK MARKETS HAVE CRASHED AND MANY INDUSTRY ANALYSTS ARE SUGGESTING THAT WE WILL GO THROUGH AT LEAST THREE OR FOUR MORE STRETCHES JUST LIKE WE EXPERIENCED THIS LAST MONTH.

But then again...its the "optimists" (or is it people in denial) that get burned the most in a crash because they keep holding out.

For Vancouver, the most important thing anyone needs to know is that the median price of real estate is seven times more than the average yearly salary in the Vancouver market. A healthy real estate market has a ratio of two or three times salary.

That's all you really need to know.

Really...its not like San Diego, New York, LA or some of these other cities that crashed are worse places to live than Vancouver. But then again, people here seem to think Vancouver is some kind of Utopia relative to the rest of the world despite the obvious fact that it isn't a warm weather climate.
I'm done arguing with you. I read the Economist religiously and I am paid for my advice on this and other similar issues and I'm done wasting my time.
I'm reasonably familar with US real estate having bought a condo in Florida recently and advising a client who recently bought a condo in San Diego and I recently attended a seminar that included both a US real estate lawyer and a US mortgage broker, so I'm quite familar with the context of the US market.

I know there's a fundamental problem, who doesn't? The only issue is magnitude and how we believe it will affect the local housing market.

And you may be right, the fundaments of real estate in the lower mainland haven't made sense for probably 5 years or more in terms of it being a viable investment. One just has to put a cap rate on it to understand that. Having said that it continued to go during that period of time didn't it? And in fact this drop is relatively minor in relationship to this increase. Maybe it will dramatically unwind to where it was then, but I personally don't think it will. I hear a counter argument that we lag the US by 2 years, so whatever happens there will happen here, just with a lag. Maybe, maybe not.

This is a true story. I have a friend of the family that was telling me 6 years ago that real estate was too high so he was waiting for the 'crash" so he could get into the market. He'd watch every crisis with glee waiting for this crash. Meanwhile prices pretty much doubled during this period and I went out and bought a couple of properties, which have since doubled prior to the correction.

So even if real estate drops by 25% (it only dropped about 16% in the US so far) he still would have been better off buying when he initally had the chance.

But where's it going from here.

You see wholesale crash, so presumably you've sold or in the process of selling any investment property and perhaps your personal residence, I'm not going down that path.

Personally I would like to sell one of mine to lock in the gain, but I'm not going to panic over it and I'm not going to sell it at any price with the thinking that if I don't I'm going to get less in the future. I'm going to try and get what I believe is a fair price in this market. And no I'm not going to sell all my real estate, just some.

As to may of those other issues, why do you believe the US fed rate which is lower than ours, would affect us more than the Bank of Canada rate. If that were true presumably mortgage rates in Canada would have dropped with the lasted Fed cut, and presumably you'd be happy to see them take these steps. As I've previously mentioned, which you refuse to believe, we had a significantly different mortgage regulation environment in Canada then they have in the US. Recourse verses non recourse mortgages being one of them.

From my perspective you've decided that this is a panic situation and you're prepared to make any argument you can to justify your position, whether or not they are connected in reality. Some of your arguments have merit, others are simply nonsense and they are all mixed in together in an attempt to justify your opinion.

But I'm finished with this topic. Everytime I respond to these threads I keep arguing with people who honestly believe they know more than they actually do. And you can't win in that situation because they are convinced they are right, so it becomes a pointless exercise.

Oh and based on your views, here's a link I think you'll enjoy.

http://patrick.net/housing/crash.html

And this is another interesting link on the latest Case/Shiller home price indices.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/102...-price-indices-hit-new-record-annual-declines

Funny thing when you look at Miami, for example, prices when up 175% from 2000 and now are only up about 75% since then. We're probably more along the lines of Seattle than anywhere else in terms of the projections they've illustrated.
 
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mimi

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FunSugarDaddy, frankly, your posts are so articulate and intelligent it would be our loss if you were to refrain from responding. I am enjoying this debate a great deal more than anything I hear through the media...
 

FunSugarDaddy

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FunSugarDaddy, frankly, your posts are so articulate and intelligent it would be our loss if you were to refrain from responding. I am enjoying this debate a great deal more than anything I hear through the media...
Thank you mimi, but if there was a blushing icon, I'd have posted it. Maybe this is it :eek:
 

trackstar

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Did anyone else's A.D.D. kick in after paragraph #2?
 
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