https://www.npr.org/2020/03/29/8219...he-u-s-and-officials-say-worse-is-yet-to-come
Looks like fake news is at it again!
I've said this before, and I'll repeat myself.
Just another day at the White House shitshow.
To Fight Virus, Trump Extends Social Distancing Guidelines For 30 More Days
- Thread starter g eazy
- Start date
I've said this before, and I'll repeat myself.
All it takes is 1 asymptomatic carrier.
1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024, 2048, 4096, 8192, ++++
That's the sequence of growth. It could take days between each doubling or as low as 20 minutes.
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak
So even if they can curb COVID19 in 1 city and lift restrictions, all it takes is 1 carrier from another location to reignite an outbreak.
Unless the virus goes to zero worldwide, then expect multiple waves of infection, until the whole population is immune or vaccinated. Any return to normal is only an opportunity for the virus to restart.
1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024, 2048, 4096, 8192, ++++
That's the sequence of growth. It could take days between each doubling or as low as 20 minutes.
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-29/coronavirus-choir-outbreak
So even if they can curb COVID19 in 1 city and lift restrictions, all it takes is 1 carrier from another location to reignite an outbreak.
Unless the virus goes to zero worldwide, then expect multiple waves of infection, until the whole population is immune or vaccinated. Any return to normal is only an opportunity for the virus to restart.
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The only parallel to this virus within recent history at least is the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. In the US it started in March of that year and there is some evidence that’s where it originated, at an army camp in Kansas. It spread to Europe with American troops later that year. In the US it essentially disappeared by late November, early December of 1918.
I wonder if this COVID-19 virus will ever be stamped out ("go to zero", as you say). Or will it be like the annual flu that keeps on killing many thousands year after year, even after a vaccine is found?
On second thought, 20 minutes to get infected is probably wrong. But get 50 people in a confined space with a single infectious person (who doesn't even know they're infected) and chances are a lot of them will get infected. Can be a dental conference, a crowded arrivals hall at the airport, comedy club, pool hall, Sunday church, kids' birthday party, etc.
Plug that into the sequence and assuming there's no restrictions - 11 doublings later, 105,000 people are infected. If 10% need hospitalization, that's 10,000 who'll be fighting for their life. Plus they'll need to stay for weeks - it's not a quick in-and-out of the ER.
3-5 days later, the infected # doubles again. Now it's 20,000 who need hospitalization. And so on.
VGH only has 1,900 beds and on a normal day about 70% full.
Plug that into the sequence and assuming there's no restrictions - 11 doublings later, 105,000 people are infected. If 10% need hospitalization, that's 10,000 who'll be fighting for their life. Plus they'll need to stay for weeks - it's not a quick in-and-out of the ER.
3-5 days later, the infected # doubles again. Now it's 20,000 who need hospitalization. And so on.
VGH only has 1,900 beds and on a normal day about 70% full.
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It makes me wonder why all the highrises in Bby, Coq, Richmond, Vancouver, Delta, Poco etc,
haven't been infected up the wazooo being that at sometime of day they all have to travel in hoards
up and down the elevators like in rush hour, Anytime of day?
Just a thought. Does it take one sneeze or cough in a crowded elevator of someone infected
with this Covid/flu/cold to eventually infect the entire building? The way things are talked about it could
be a big possiblity.
........................QM'r
haven't been infected up the wazooo being that at sometime of day they all have to travel in hoards
up and down the elevators like in rush hour, Anytime of day?
Just a thought. Does it take one sneeze or cough in a crowded elevator of someone infected
with this Covid/flu/cold to eventually infect the entire building? The way things are talked about it could
be a big possiblity.
........................QM'r
Not sure what you are inferring when you said the "covid/flu/cold", since they are not the same in terms of transmissability and fatality rate.
The short answer is no, one sneeze in a crowded elevator will not infect the whole building. But over time, one infected person can pass it to one or more, and they pass it on to more and so on. Just look at the cruise ship scenario in Japan a couple of months ago, the infection kept spreading despite strict quarantine on the ship. Eventually they had to let everyone off the ship before the rest of the people get sick.
Another point frame of reference, at the Skagit county choir practice, one practice (2.5 hours) infected 45 out of 60 members, although it is unclear how many carrier(s) went to the practice.
Watched a video with Bill Gates about his thoughts on how long the virus will last. He has a good grasp of the situation.
That's not necessarily true. The strength of infection, and the resultant effects are dependent on the initial viral load, so not everyone gets infected to the same degree, or could spread it.
We could also see a mutation making things worse, or a situation where the virus itself staarts to weaken.
It also seems that, since by far the usual outcome is complete recovery, the herd immunity is building up.
I don't know if the herd immunity is building up - out of more than million tests in USA and close to 250.000 tests in Canada the positives are about 7% of the total tests done.
If they are only testing probable cases then you can see that we are not experiencing that level of exposure to build herd immunity yet, in my opinion it is a very long battle, but lets hope for the best
If they are only testing probable cases then you can see that we are not experiencing that level of exposure to build herd immunity yet, in my opinion it is a very long battle, but lets hope for the best
Yah I pretty much meant any of the three but was really infering towards the covid19. Now I know one sneeze isn't
goiny to infect the whole building right off. Of course I meant after the sneeze it could be transmitted by one carrier through
another until the entire building more or less could be infected. Flu's and cold's included as well as those viruses
also linger on surfaces ready to be picked up by the unsuspecting along with the obvious airborn particles with virus
infusion waiting to be breathed in if you walk through that fallout cloud in the elevator.
No different than covid of course.
.........................QM'r
