Russia vs. the World, part whatever....

[Ms Erica Phoenix]

So...just when we think that this old world has done surprising us, what do we find?

Another Russian megalomaniac 'beloved leader' (dictator) has ordered Ukrainian troops to stand down as they try to protect territory that both Ukraine and Russia claim. The Dow is dropping like a lead balloon and gold is soaring. If I were hanging onto some extra cash today, I would put some of it into physical precious metals. As hornygandalf has pointed out in another thread, silver has more industrial use (and I feel it's far undervalued) so that's where my money would go, but if you've got more in your stash, buy gold. It's up over $40 CDN since opening yesterday, and as world tensions ratchet up between the US, the EU, Russia and the Ukraine, gold is going to start running again. As of this minute, the US spot price is $1351 and rising....let's see where it goes from here...

Thoughts?

 

[Lo-ki]

As of this minute, the US spot price is $1351 and rising....

I need a goose that lays golden eggs..

Loki

 

[sdw]

So...just when we think that this old world has done surprising us, what do we find?

Another Russian megalomaniac 'beloved leader' (dictator) has ordered Ukrainian troops to stand down as they try to protect territory that both Ukraine and Russia claim. The Dow is dropping like a lead balloon and gold is soaring. If I were hanging onto some extra cash today, I would put some of it into physical precious metals. As hornygandalf has pointed out in another thread, silver has more industrial use (and I feel it's far undervalued) so that's where my money would go, but if you've got more in your stash, buy gold. It's up over $40 CDN since opening yesterday, and as world tensions ratchet up between the US, the EU, Russia and the Ukraine, gold is going to start running again. As of this minute, the US spot price is $1351 and rising....let's see where it goes from here...

Thoughts?

It may be that the best time to buy Gold was a week ago while the current situation was ramping up.

It must be remembered that if Obama doesn't go to Yalta to reprise Neville Chamberlain's "Peace in our Time" in the coming weeks - - - there will be a war.

The USA doesn't have the logistics train to fight a war in the Crimea. The Ukraine usually plays the same role that the French excel at, nation that other armies fight on, and Russia is going to turn off the gas in the next few days. We'll see if Germany is as interested in "supporting" Ukraine when their factories and electric generation plants are shut down. It'll be interesting to see if Romania and Poland are willing to allow passage for other nation's armies. Plus there is the reality that in order for the Americans to operate in the Black Sea, they have to have the permission of Turkey to transit the Bosphorus.

I believe that Obama will meet with Putin in Yalta and sign some sort of "Peace in our time" agreement that recognizes who does and who doesn't have the ability to win a Crimean War.

No War means the winners will be the people that played the arbitrage game which means the Gold price will resume the trend of the past two years. War means that the Western Nations (NATO) are going to have to come up with Trillions and reverse the disarming that the USA under Obama has been leading.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/02/us-russia-crimea-ukraine-putin

US concedes Russia has control of Crimea and seeks to contain Putin

• Senior officials say goal is to avoid further Ukraine incursion
• Administration to apply economic and political pressure
• Kerry to fly to Kiev after saying Russia G8 status at risk
• Obama’s 90-minute Putin call: no meeting of minds
The US conceded on Sunday that Moscow had “complete operational control of the Crimean peninsula” and announced that the secretary of state, John Kerry, will fly to Kiev in an attempt to halt a further Russian advance into Ukraine.

Senior US officials dismissed claims that Washington is incapable of exerting influence on the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, but were forced to admit that Crimea had been successfully invaded by 6,000 airborne and ground troops in what could be the start of a wider invasion.

“They are flying in reinforcements and they are settling in,” one senior official said. Another senior official said: “Russian forces now have complete operational control of the Crimean peninsula.”

On Monday, the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said he had discussed Ukraine with his Chinese counterpart and their views coincided on the situation there.

Lavrov said in a statement that the two veto-wielding UN security council members would stay in close contact on the issue.

Putin, let's all remember is the reason why Syria hasn't already been subjected to American "Shock and Awe". The Russians don't like to let go of their Naval Bases.

If the Americans do divert resources to support activity in the Black Sea and Crimea, China may decide that this is the perfect time to recover their "lost province" of Taiwan.

 

[Ms Erica Phoenix]

Interesting times indeed...

 

[mounty]

I think it pressure tactics both countries what to show they are superior.

 

[sdw]

CNN is reporting that Yanukovych asked Russia to send troops. Yanukovych is the still legally elected Prime Minister of Ukraine. This time, the USA is being called on it's habit of supporting armed rebellion for regime change when they don't like the people in power. John McCain was on CNN saying that the USA is unable to provide military assistance to Ukraine.

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/03/world/europe/ukraine-tensions/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

http://www.cnn.com/2014/03/03/politics/us-ukraine-options/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Even veteran Sen. John McCain of Arizona, a proponent of exerting U.S. influence abroad, conceded that the fight must involve diplomacy, not the military.

"There is not a military option that could be exercised now," McCain said Monday in remarks at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee's annual conference. "But the most powerful and biggest and strongest nation in the world should have plenty of options."

http://www.naturalgaseurope.com/germany-russia-energy-diplomacy

Germany imported around 35 billion cubic metres from Russia in 2011, over 60% of its gas imports and some 40% of its total gas consumption, of 99 bn cubic metres, while its domestic gas production continuing to shrink sharply, to about 15 bn cubic metres in 2011 but its consumption continued sharply growing. Germany is set to become, like a string of east European FSU and ex-Warsaw Pact countries, almost totally dependent on Russian gas.

This is what happens when the public doesn't support domestic supply and declares supply from friendlier nations to be "too dirty" to use. When Russia turns off the 5 pipelines that run through Ukraine, Germany, Romania, Poland and Ukraine will be cold in the dark.

Russia already has a customer for that Gas. It's called China.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/10/22/china-russia-energy-idUSL5N0IC10F20131022

Russia grabs China oil and gas export deals
* Rosneft to supply 200,000 bpd to Sinopec

* Inks refinery supply deal with CNPC

* Novatek sells LNG to partner CNPC

* Russia makes energy pivot to Asia

By Denis Dyomkin

BEIJING, Oct 22 (Reuters) - Russian energy companies signed a slew of deals with China on Tuesday, seeking to lock in sales to fund costly production and pipeline projects that will direct exports away from Europe to Asia.

The agreements, announced during a visit by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev to Beijing, brought Igor Sechin, CEO of state oil major Rosneft, closer to his goal of exporting more than 1 million barrels per day of oil to China.

Gas independent Novatek secured a long-term contract to supply liquefied natural gas, ahead of the lifting of state-controlled Gazprom's export monopoly on LNG exports expected next year.

Gazprom, the world's largest gas company, made modest progress towards supplying pipeline gas to China but - after years of talks - will fail to seal a deal before its Russian rivals can compete for exports.

Medvedev hailed Rosneft's outline agreement to pump 200,000 barrels per day of crude oil over 10 years to China's Sinopec Group, in a pre-paid deal valued at $85 billion.

"That is a large sum of money for any country - even China," the prime minister said. "It testifies to the fact that we have reached a higher and completely new level of cooperation."

Speaking after the deals were signed, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said: "Commercial cooperation is ... extremely important and must not be put off."

The pivot to Asia by the world's largest energy-producing nation has been hastened by Europe's economic slump, while the shale energy revolution threatens to close off the export route to North America.

 

[retriever]

Russia has only one warm water port and it's in that region.

Then there is the Hitler scenario. Putin is allegedly moving in to protect the Russian speaking people of that region. (they are closely aligned with Russia) Hitler annexed Austria for the same reason. (German speaking Austrian people supposedly aligned with Germany)

Interesting, right.

 

[canuck33660]

Russia has only one warm water port and it's in that region.

Then there is the Hitler scenario. Putin is allegedly moving in to protect the Russian speaking people of that region. (they are closely aligned with Russia) Hitler annexed Austria for the same reason. (German speaking Austrian people supposedly aligned with Germany)

Interesting, right.

and then there is the 1936 Olympics and now the 2014 Olympics ......... very interesting

 

[vancity_cowboy]

So...just when we think that this old world has done surprising us, what do we find?

Another Russian megalomaniac 'beloved leader' (dictator) has ordered Ukrainian troops to stand down as they try to protect territory that both Ukraine and Russia claim. The Dow is dropping like a lead balloon and gold is soaring. If I were hanging onto some extra cash today, I would put some of it into physical precious metals. As hornygandalf has pointed out in another thread, silver has more industrial use (and I feel it's far undervalued) so that's where my money would go, but if you've got more in your stash, buy gold. It's up over $40 CDN since opening yesterday, and as world tensions ratchet up between the US, the EU, Russia and the Ukraine, gold is going to start running again. As of this minute, the US spot price is $1351 and rising....let's see where it goes from here...

Thoughts?

$1325/oz to $1350/oz is hardly soaring!

welcome yes, but $1850/oz would be soaring

putin is pulling a u.s. in cuba play - just think of the crimea as guantanamo bay naval base and i think you'll agree

ukraine was convinced to give up it's nukes when the curtain came down, in exchange for assurances fron the u.s., great britain and russia that it's territories would be respected. russia is arguably violating that agreement

as an interesting aside, one of the enticements for ukraine's signing was an assurance that the u.s. would clean up the chernobyl site, an assurance that yet is to be acted upon

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Ukraine

 

[sdw]

$1325/oz to $1350/oz is hardly soaring!

welcome yes, but $1850/oz would be soaring

putin is pulling a u.s. in cuba play - just think of the crimea as guantanamo bay naval base and i think you'll agree

ukraine was convinced to give up it's nukes when the curtain came down, in exchange for assurances fron the u.s., great britain and russia that it's territories would be respected. russia is arguably violating that agreement

as an interesting aside, one of the enticements for ukraine's signing was an assurance that the u.s. would clean up the chernobyl site, an assurance that yet is to be acted upon

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Ukraine

To count on the USA to keep their word is to become "an Australian in Vietnam" or " a Swamp Iraqi after the 1st Iraqi war was over or even the US Ambassador in Libya.

Russia made their feelings clear when the US wanted to put part of their "Missile Shield" in the Ukraine. When the US didn't like who was elected in Ukraine, they supported a mob that wanted to change the result of the election. Putin doesn't intend to give up his naval bases in the Crimea. He made himself clear on the consequences of trying to use Ukraine as an anti Russia platform years ago. Putin fought a war in Georgia on this very subject http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Georgia–Russia_crisis In fact, the war in Georgia is still in progress. The Russians have been shooting down drones that have Georgia's colors painted on them, however the drone is operated from the USA.

Putin is calling Obama on the habit of the USA using surrogates and military power to make the world into what the USA wants. Obama can't win this one with nice words and if he takes resources from other places, several other nations will take advantage of that reallocation of forces. There isn't a "Coalition of the Stupid" that will come charging in to rescue Obama on this. They all got burned in Afghanistan, Libya and Iraq.

 

[Horse99]

This is nothing new.....what would you think if Quebec was being uppity and wanted to leave the dominion? Would you get all pissy if Russia told Canada to get out of Quebec? No one, including the USA and EU is going to intervene......there is lots of hatred going on, going back generations.....first Stalin starved all the farmers, then some of the Ukes fought with the GErmans when they invaded Russian in 1941.....No one here understands what its like to live through what Europe has has gone through in the past 150 years.

 

[PuntMeister]

Sex can be really really good when you turn off the TV, put the paper directly in the recycling, cook a nice meal, enjoy a good bottle of wine, and Fuk like minks.

I can't control what goes on in the Ukraine, Russia, Syria, Iraq, etc., and I can't even seem to control my own erection. I will keep working on my erection. And buy gold.

-Punt.

 

[hornygandalf]

So...just when we think that this old world has done surprising us, what do we find?
Thoughts?

Interesting times indeed, but I'm not sure this will blow up into anything major, though there will be ramifications down the road as a result of the West being unwilling to take a strong enough stand on this. I think it is probably too late to be looking at buying gold/silver in response to short-term moves due to this crisis. The smart money already did that... last week if not earlier. I think most of the spike up has probably happened and we''ll see the precious metals sink back to where they were earlier, and then continue on their slow meander upwards. If you are wanting to buy gold or silver, don't do it simply as a result of the Crimean incident (as it will probably be referred as). Do it for longer term reasons and you are less likely to be disappointed.

The West will be unwilling to commit to putting significant boots on the ground to defend the Ukraine or dislodge Russia from the Crimea. The Ukraine is too weak militarily to effectively resist the Russian Army, although you may see some fire-fights and casualties, but they are likely to be isolated incidents. So, the Ukraine government will unwillingly concede... for the time being. Question is, now they have the Crimean Peninsular, will Russia continue to encroach into Ukrainian territory? Probably not immediately, but in time. The larger war will be fought economically, as Russia supplies so much of the gas to Europe, as well as having substantial oil reserves. It can both strangle Europe with its control of gas as well as enjoy additional profits from the jump upwards in price of both gas and oil. They will benefit from unrest, uncertainty and nervousness globally. They can cut off European gas supplies and sell to Asia. So, that would be one thing I would be watching. Likewise, the price of uranium will probably move upwards. Again, a resource that Russia has substantial control over (will benefit Canadian uranium companies).

The US and Europe are potentially going to have ongoing challenges to their standing and authority in the world as a result of this, which may embolden other dictatorial leaders. This will lead to increased unrest globally. I don't agree with the US acting as a global policeman and intervening in countries all around the world, however, it did have the effect of keeping some despots in their place.

There will be ongoing discussions about the treaty that it appears that Russia has abrogated its assurances and obligations. What will be the outfall of that? I suspect that it will claim that it intervened at the request of the elected Ukrainian leader, and thus it was a legitimate action (and that the actions of Parliament in firing the President were not legitimate). I think the problems from this will be more down the road rather than immediately.

I may be wrong, but the above is my opinion as I look at events today. Tomorrow I may have a different (or at least slightly altered opinion).

 

[Tugela]

It must be remembered that if Obama doesn't go to Yalta to reprise Neville Chamberlain's "Peace in our Time" in the coming weeks - - - there will be a war.

The USA doesn't have the logistics train to fight a war in the Crimea. The Ukraine usually plays the same role that the French excel at, nation that other armies fight on, and Russia is going to turn off the gas in the next few days. We'll see if Germany is as interested in "supporting" Ukraine when their factories and electric generation plants are shut down. It'll be interesting to see if Romania and Poland are willing to allow passage for other nation's armies. Plus there is the reality that in order for the Americans to operate in the Black Sea, they have to have the permission of Turkey to transit the Bosphorus.

I believe that Obama will meet with Putin in Yalta and sign some sort of "Peace in our time" agreement that recognizes who does and who doesn't have the ability to win a Crimean War.

The question regarding Crimea has already been decided, it has nothing to do with "peace in our time".

The reality is that the Russians are there and there is nothing anyone can do about it. The Russian army is not some third world tin pot army that can't shoot back. Trying to recover Crimea by force will lead to a massive loss of life and probably would not succeed anyway, at best it would be a stalemate. The only way they are getting the Russians out of there is if Putin blinks, and he doesn't seem the blinking sort of guy.

Plus, everyone is forgetting that the people who actually live there (the Crimeans) for the most part want it. So there won't be much in the way of resistance, although the Tartars are probably going to wage a terror campaign.

The big question will be, what will Russia do next? if they push into the rest of Ukraine, then other European countries will have no choice but to intervene. It is not as simple as doing nothing, if the precedent is set then all sorts of countries will start making demands on each other and the European alliance will fall apart. So, they would have to react. Btw, all of those countries you listed are NATO/allies, who would want to call on NATO if they are ever threatened, so I doubt they would block troop movements if it was done under NATO. I doubt the Russians want a major war however, and there will be war if they attack Ukraine proper, certainly from the Ukrainians and perhaps others as well. There would be all sorts of consequences with little long term gain. If they take Crimea and stop there, they will save face and probably nothing further will happen.

The most likely outcome is that Crimea will go to the Russians and Ukraine will become part of NATO. There will be lots of bluster and Ukrainians will hate Russia even more, but, there is not much they can do about it. The one thing they can do is cut power to Crimea, which would be a big problem, but that would probably precipitate a Russian invasion, so they are unlikely to do that.

To prevent further occurrences of this sort of thing you can bet that most European countries are going to be beefing up their military. The best way to prevent being invaded is to be strong enough to repel it when it is happening, not afterwards. So what you really want to be buying is stock in the companies that make weapons.

 

[Tugela]

There is no reason for the US to go to war because Ukraine isn't geopolitically important to the US. The US has had the Monroe Doctrine for more than a century and Russia is exercising its equivalent. The only folks likely to be involved in a war over the Crimea are Russia & Ukraine. I'm sure that by now Ukraine is really wishing it hadn't been convinced to hand over all the former Soviet nukes as having a few would likely have kept the Russians from acting overtly.

No, if they had nukes, the Kremlin would have had a full scale invasion in the middle of their revolution and taken over before they knew what hit them.

 

[Tugela]

$1325/oz to $1350/oz is hardly soaring!

welcome yes, but $1850/oz would be soaring

putin is pulling a u.s. in cuba play - just think of the crimea as guantanamo bay naval base and i think you'll agree

ukraine was convinced to give up it's nukes when the curtain came down, in exchange for assurances fron the u.s., great britain and russia that it's territories would be respected. russia is arguably violating that agreement

as an interesting aside, one of the enticements for ukraine's signing was an assurance that the u.s. would clean up the chernobyl site, an assurance that yet is to be acted upon

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Ukraine

It is not like this is the first time anything like this has happened. Remember, the US invaded Granada when there was internal turmoil, so they could install a more friendly government. Then there was Panama, when the US access to the canal was threatened. they invaded and installed a new more compliant government.

So, the US is not above doing this sort of thing themselves.

 

[sdw]

Gold morning quote is $1328 so Gold has already returned. Arbitrage of Russian Stocks and Bonds is a winner. Kerry gave the Ukraine $1 Billion and basically signed off on the transfer of the Crimea the way that Nicolas Sarkozy signed off on the transfer of Georgia's provinces a few years ago. Since Putin won't be giving Crimea back, the crisis is all but over.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/world/ukrain...as-vladimir-putin-checkmates-crimea-1.2558488

 

[Ms Erica Phoenix]

It is not like this is the first time anything like this has happened. Remember, the US invaded Granada when there was internal turmoil, so they could install a more friendly government. Then there was Panama, when the US access to the canal was threatened. they invaded and installed a new more compliant government.

So, the US is not above doing this sort of thing themselves.

The US has been doing this since the early 70s. To horribly mangle a secondhand quote from Naomi Klein's "The Shock Doctrine";

"For his Economic theories, the world gave Milton Friedman the Nobel Prize: the application of those theories gave Chile Pinochet" and all of South America's most brutal dictators...

 

[Ms Erica Phoenix]

It is not like this is the first time anything like this has happened. Remember, the US invaded Granada when there was internal turmoil, so they could install a more friendly government. Then there was Panama, when the US access to the canal was threatened. they invaded and installed a new more compliant government.

So, the US is not above doing this sort of thing themselves.

The US has been doing this since the early 70s. To horribly mangle a secondhand quote from Naomi Klein's "The Shock Doctrine";

"For his Economic theories, the world gave Milton Friedman the Nobel Prize: the application of those theories gave Chile Pinochet" and all of South America's most brutal dictators...regime change in the Ukraine benefits everyone!

 

[hornygandalf]

The US has been doing this since the early 70s. To horribly mangle a secondhand quote from Naomi Klein's "The Shock Doctrine";
"For his Economic theories, the world gave Milton Friedman the Nobel Prize: the application of those theories gave Chile Pinochet" and all of South America's most brutal dictators...regime change in the Ukraine benefits everyone!

The US as been doing it a lot longer than the 1970s. 1898, Spanish-American War (Philippines, Guam, Cuba, Puerto Rico). Later Korea, although I vaguely remember reading something about a failed attempt to establish a beachhead/colony somewhere else around the turn of the 20th century (US failures often aren't well-covered in historical accounts).

Along with Naomi Klein, Noam Chomsky has plenty to say about US imperialism.