Interestingly enough, even if the Conservatives win more seats than the Liberals (as the polls seem to project), the Liberals may still end up forming the government if no party manages to win a majority. We may not get rid of the little b*ggers after all! The following article explains the reasons and the options available.
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Minority report: A guide to forming government
Kieron Lang, CTV.ca News Staff
June 23, 2004 4:10 PM ET
Forming a government, one imagines, is a fairly straightforward affair. Get the votes, pick a cabinet, form a government.
And so it is, if the party hoping to form the Government has won enough seats to command the House of Commons.
With 308 seats in the Commons, a party must win at least 155 to form an uncontested majority.
The polls, however, have been suggesting Canadians aren't prepared to hand any of the parties a clear majority. Instead, the leading parties have been registering neck-and-neck support countrywide.
Come election night, pollsters say, voters could give the Liberals more seats than any of their rivals, but not enough to form a majority. And even if they don't win more seats than their closest rival, the Liberals would still be invited to form another government.
To better understand how it all adds up, perhaps a brief civics lesson is in order.
You might be surprised to hear that Canada's head of state is not the prime minister. Instead, the Governor General leads the nation through the Cabinet, headed by the first, or prime, minister.
Not elected for a specific "term" in office, the Cabinet governs from the moment the prime minister is sworn in until he or she resigns or dies. That means that, unlike in the United States, where a president who wins a second term in office must be sworn in all over again, a Canadian prime minister does not.
All through an election campaign, and even after, the prime minister who called the vote remains the nation's leader.
If election results hand a party opposed to the sitting prime minister and his Cabinet a clear majority, the Governor General's job is simple. After the outgoing Cabinet resigns, all the Governor General has to do is call on the leader of the victorious party to choose new ministers.
Once they are approved and formally appointed by the Governor General, the handover of power is said to be complete.
The transition is complicated, however, if no party emerges with a clear majority. In that case, the incumbent Government has two choices.
It can immediately resign, leaving an opening for the Governor General to invite the leader of the next-largest party to form its own Cabinet.
Because voluntarily relinquishing power is a rare occurrence in politics, the more likely outcome is for the sitting Cabinet to stay in office and test its mandate in the House of Commons.
Such a government is known as a minority, because it does not automatically enjoy the support of most members in the House.
It can test the waters, however, and hope that it can patch together support of other party's membership to get its bills passed.
If the Cabinet fails the test on a motion of censure or a confidence vote, it then has no choice but to resign.
But that doesn't automatically mean voters will be called back to the ballot box.
If there appears to be a reasonable possibility that the next-biggest party can get the support of the House, the Governor General can invite the Leader of the Opposition to try and form a government.
Then if that government also fails to draw the confidence of the House, the Governor General could grant requests for another vote.
The Governor General's authority on this issue stems from the fact her principle responsibility is not to entertain foreign dignitaries or lead international diplomatic missions, but rather to ensure Canada always has a prime minister.
Even above the crucial role of approving cabinet, signing bills into law and getting the whole thing rolling with the delivery of the Speech from the Throne, the Governor General does have the final say over who can lead the House.
To that end, she has the authority to summon, adjourn and dissolve Parliament.
Her powers are bound by the basic principles, laws and rules outlined in the country's Constitution, and convention dictates she can only do so on the advice of the Prime Minister, but there are rare circumstances when she can strike out on her own.
Scenarios
So, what does all this mean for the day after June 28?
If voters hand any of the parties a majority of at least 155 seats, of course, it will mean very little.
But, if not, the possibilities are rife.
In one possible scenario, the Liberals could win more seats than any other party, but still fall short of a majority.
In that case, Martin would lead a standard minority government that needs to attract the support of a handful of other parties' members in order to pass legislation.
In another scenario, however, the sailing might not be so smooth.
For instance, if you believe the seat projections in an Ipsos-Reid poll released ahead of the final week of the campaign, the Conservatives could emerge with as many close to 130 seats.
Martin's Liberals would end up with no more than 100 seats, while the NDP and the Bloc would win less than 30 and 70, respectively.
Obviously, that's not enough for the Liberals to claim a majority.
But, as we learned in our earlier civics lesson, Martin's still-sitting Cabinet would have first crack at forming the government.
According to CTV's Mike Duffy, the Liberal Leader has already considered the possibility voters will hand his party second place -- and decided he will nevertheless do his best to hang on to the keys to the PMO.
"Senior Liberals tell me even if they're 30 seats behind the Conservatives they will insist on the opportunity to meet Parliament and they will bring forward a left wing speech that the NDP and the Bloc can support and therefore keep Stephen Harper out of the prime minister's office," Duffy told CTV Newsnet.
"Their biggest fear is that if he's there even a day or week, people will start to think of him as prime minister. Paul Martin's strategy is to try to hold on to power no matter the cost or the result on June 28th."
As for Harper, his chance of grabbing power is a much longer shot.
Short of winning an outright majority, his opposition status heading into the vote means he must hope Martin loses on a vote of confidence.
Only then might he be granted his own chance to fill the government benches.
But that's not guaranteed either.
As Lord Byng illustrated, the decision remains at the discretion of the Governor General.
If the Governor General is unconvinced that an alliance of the Conservatives and the separatist Bloc Quebecois is not in the country's national interest, she could opt for another election rather than invite Harper to form a government.
