Now that the Election is real, who will you vote for?

[Makhno]

Latest poll projects Conservatives with 114-118 seats, Liberals with 104-108

Tories, Grits seen at parity with campaign half over

Globe and Mail Update

UPDATED AT 11:36 PM EDT Wednesday, Jun 9, 2004

As the campaign hits the midway point, the Conservatives are in a position to form a minority government as it battles the Liberals in a neck-in-neck race, a poll suggests.

Nationally, the Liberals have 32 per cent voter support, compared with 31 per cent for the Conservatives. The NDP has 16 per cent support, according to a poll conducted for The Globe and Mail and CTV by Ipsos-Reid.

Since the last Ipsos-Reid poll, which was released on Saturday, the Conservatives and Liberals have not budged. In the first 18 days of the campaign, the Liberals have fallen from 35 per cent while the Tories have risen from 26 per cent.

In Ontario, the Liberals have the lead over the Conservatives with 40 per cent compared with 35 per cent. In Quebec, the Bloc has a substantial lead and in Atlantic Canada, the Conservatives are now within striking distance of the Liberals

A seat projection by Ipsos-Reid would give the Conservatives between 114 and 118 seats and the Liberals between 104 and 108. In the House of Commons, 155 seats are needed for a majority.

The campaign hits a crescendo next Monday and Tuesday when the major party leaders cross paths at the French and English TV debate, their big chance to go on the offensive in front of a mass audience before the June 28 vote.

Liberal Leader Paul Martin said his party would stay the course by pointing to the differences between his party and Stephen Harper's Tories. “We're into the playoffs in terms of this campaign,” he told reporters while attending the Group of Eight summit.

The poll of 2,000 Canadians was conducted between June 4 and June 8 and is considered accurate plus or minus 2.2 per cent, 19 times out of 20.

It says that 61 per cent of Canadians are opposed to a Conservative-Bloc coalition while 57 per cent would accept a Liberal minority working with the NDP.

 

[Makhno]

Tories set to win most seats: polls
Analysis shows Liberals trailing everywhere but Atlantic Canada

Peter O'Neil and Bill Curry, with files from Anne Dawson
CanWest News Service

June 10, 2004

BARRIE - The Conservatives have for the first time moved into the lead in the June 28 federal election and are poised to win 117 seats compared with 112 for the Liberals, an analysis of recent polls suggests.

The ongoing analysis of polls suggests the Liberals' difficulties have continued, giving Stephen Harper's Tories momentum -- especially in hotly contested battles in seat-rich Ontario. Based on the projection, the Tories would win 51 seats in Ontario compared with 48 for the Liberals. Going into the election, the Liberals held 97 seats in the province.

The latest projection by Wilfrid Laurier University professor Barry Kay for Global National is based on a sample of 6,100 voters from four separate polls. It shows the Bloc Quebecois set to win 55 seats and the NDP 24.

Feeling his party has momentum, Mr. Harper is shifting gears to target traditional Liberal seats that he says have suddenly become vulnerable.

"We're probably shifting our general efforts more to areas that we probably didn't think we would win earlier on," the Conservative leader said yesterday.

"I'm going to Liberal ridings and ... now increasingly to what were once very hard-core Liberal ridings. [Paul] Martin is doing the same thing, at least when he's in the country."

The latest poll analysis shows no party is likely to form a majority government, which requires 155 seats.

It shows the Liberals being held to just 20 seats in Quebec -- compared with 55 for the Bloc -- and trailing the Conservatives everywhere west of the province. Only in Atlantic Canada are the Liberals projected to win more seats than the Tories.

Mr. Harper yesterday continued his attempt to counter the Prime Minister's ongoing barrage over abortion and gay marriage.

He said two Liberal Cabinet ministers who have attacked the Tories on human rights -- Helene Scherrer, the Heritage Minister, and Judy Sgro, the Immigration Minister -- both voted in favour of a motion last year declaring that marriage should be a union of a man and a woman.

"If he says that pro-life positions on abortion are not tolerated in the Liberal party, if he says you can't be a Liberal and be for traditional marriage, then I think it's time he expelled ... those people out of his party."

Mr. Martin's other option would be to admit "he is not telling the truth to Canadians" about the diversity of views within the Liberal party, the Conservative leader said.

Mr. Harper also tried to put the abortion issue away for good.

"I have no intention of supporting abortion legislation, so there's no way that abortion rights are going to be overridden by my government. It's that simple," Mr. Harper said.

Although the latest poll analysis showed the Conservatives in the lead, an Ipsos-Reid survey conducted for Canadian media outlets revealed that 61% of Canadians are opposed to a Conservative-Bloc coalition. The same survey found 57% of voters would accept a Liberal minority working with the NDP.

A seat projection by Ipsos-Reid gave the Conservatives between 114 and 118 seats and the Liberals between 104 and 108.

 

[Makhno]

Liberals unleash new attack ads

The Liberals have unleashed new attack ads, which historically have not worked well north of the US border.

Desperate times call for desperate measures?

Watch the Liberal attack ad here

 

[travel guy]

I didn't take notice of this thread until it reached 180 replies - thus didn't read through the whole thing so please pardon me if this has been address here.

I'm curious if the issue of prostitution ever actually comes up pre-election. Is there any Canadian politician actually vocally in favor of decriminalization?

 

[travel guy]

Dufferin

Thank you for the link. Am I correct to assume then that this issue would be governed provincially rather than federally?

 

[Makhno]

CULTS WORSHIP NEW GRIT AD

From the National Post, 12 June 2004

This week's Liberal "attack ad" is the talk of the advertising industry. While some experts expect the ad to backfire, it get a big thumbs-up from Octavia Hecate McFadden, VP (creative) for the Canadian Association of Cults. Post Mortem interviewed Ms. McFadden:

PM: So what do you like about this commercial?

OHM: It's straight out of the cults' brainwashing textbooks, and it's awfully nice to see our work is finally going mainstream.

PM: Any shot jump out at you?

OHM: Yes, one, and almost literally. The gun pointed straight at the viewer is a fabulous bit. If you want people to buy into a cult, you have to convince them that inside the cult is life and outside the cult is death. The pointed gun does that perfectly: Vote Liberal or die.

PM: But some folks don't like this sort of ad.

OHM: Well, that's the first phase -- resistance, followed by desperate attempts to change the subject, and finally meek acceptance. The Liberals need to run these ads as often as possible -- 20, even 40 times a day -- until they break the will of the millions of citizens who don't know what's good for them. And then just before election day you start running an ad showing nothing but the backlit, beaming, benevolent countenance of Glorious Leader, and people will flock to him.

PM: Any other tips from the cult handbook?

OHM: No, just the opposite. We cults find it immensely useful to gain control over our followers' money, but the Liberals have succeeded in vacuuming up more and more of people's cash even before they join the family. Truly brilliant.

PM: Only now do I see the wisdom of everything you say.

 

[Makhno]

Liberals: how low can they go?

Latest poll: Tories 123 seats, Grits 100
Majority within reach for Harper if Liberal 'hemorrhage' continues, prof says

Anne Dawson
CanWest News Service
June 12, 2004

OTTAWA - The Conservative Party has reached a new high water mark in the election and is edging towards a majority government, according to a new federal poll analysis.

Taken from a string of polls conducted by top national polling firms over the past 10 days, the analysis shows the Conservatives would win 123 seats compared to the Liberals at 100 if the vote were held today. A party needs 155 seats to form a majority government.

"During this campaign ... this is the high-water mark for the Conservatives," said Barry Kay, professor of political science at Wilfrid Laurier University who conducted the poll analysis. "People want to punish the Liberals -- whether it relates to trust and integrity, whether it relates to arrogance. It has more to do with the Liberals than it has to do with the Conservatives. There's an adage in politics that we talk about -- that is, governments are defeated, not elected. I think that's what's going on here."

His results show the NDP would win 27 seats nationally and the Bloc Quebecois 58. In vote-rich Ontario, the Liberals would be creamed, winning only 44 seats compared to the Conservatives at 53.

If these results were to hold through until election day, Kay warns that Canada would have a very "dysfunctional parliament" that would not last 12 months. But the trend has been for the Tories to increase seats in every analysis so far.

"This is bad news for the Liberals who are still falling. The polls from the last few days are worse than last week, and the polls last week were worse than the week before. The Liberals have to figure out a way to stop this hemorrhage."

Kay uses what he calls a "regional swing model" to conduct his analysis. He has studied the surveys taken by Ekos, Ipsos-Reid, Leger and SES since June 1 to produce his results.

Senior Liberal organizers, however, say despite the polls there has been a recent positive shift in voter response at the doors and they believe a radical Conservative agenda is driving Canadians voters back into the Liberal fold.

Liberals say the anecdotal evidence as candidates canvas voters is that Canadians have stopped venting their frustration at them and started focusing on what might happen to Canada if Conservative Leader Stephen Harper is at the helm.

Prime Minister Paul Martin's chief of staff, Tim Murphy, said every campaign shows the kind of rhythm that has been illustrated in the past two and a half weeks and he expects things to swing back in the Liberal's favour in the remaining half of the campaign.

"The party in government goes down a bit over the course of the first few weeks as people look around and see what's available. So they've kind of looked at Harper and the prospect of him actually forming some kind of government with the Bloc Quebecois suddenly becoming a possibility -- that makes people sit up and take note," said Murphy.

"That's scary to Canadians. It means the end to a national government as we know it."

But Conservatives simply point to the polls to show this is not the case with voters and that their message is having a positive impact. The most recent Ekos poll shows the Conservatives have 34 per cent support nationally compared to the Liberals' 30 per cent and are ahead in almost every region of the country, including Ontario, where more than a third of the seats in the House of Commons are up for grabs.

"We're getting a great reception on the doors," said John Baird, co-chair of Harper's Ontario campaign. People are responding very well to Stephen. He's not the demon that the Liberals are trying to vilify him as. Things have been going very well."

 

[Makhno]

 

[ValleyGuy]

Frustrated At Politicians??

www.whackthepm.ca



(Hope this link works)

 

[Makhno]

 

[Makhno]

 

[HoweeMeeker]

Two weeks to go and i am not happy.

Why not Duff? Polls are looking great! Logic is coming back to Canada.

 

[qwerty]

You should have watched the french debate tonight. Harper and Duceppe were having a love-in. Layton was talking a good game, but I don't particularly trust his idealism. Of course everyone was taking turns ripping Martin. None of them really strike me as very strong leaders though. I hope the english debate is better.

 

[qwerty]

I watched it......where was the love in......Harper and Duceppe were at each other a ton! I totally agree with Duff that they all spent too much time bitching about each other's parties and not the individual issues. As far as coming across like a leader.....I think Harper did a fine job....spoke french well, had clear and concise answers delivered without much delay. Martin on the other hand was his normal mumbling selff

Did you watch it in french, or the english translation? By 'love-in' I meant they spent too much time agreeing with each other, (albeit on matters of Liberal corruption) and whenever they did disagree they were far too polite to each other. I don't think any of the four would make good leaders, Martin is too weak, Harper is too meek, Layton is too idealistic and Duceppe is too extreme.

Fortunatly who the prime minister is isn't as important to our political system as say the Prez. down in Amerika.

 

[Makhno]

 

[qwerty]

Thanks Makhno:Þ

 

[Makhno]

Conservatives now 123-127, Liberals 95-99

Tories edge ahead

By DREW FAGAN
From Tuesday's Globe and Mail
Tuesday, Jun 15, 2004

The Conservative Party has taken a narrow lead in the federal election campaign and appears headed toward winning a solid minority government amid weakening support for the Liberals, according to a new poll.

The Ipsos-Reid survey for The Globe and Mail and CTV has a slim ray of hope for the Liberal Party, although at 31 per cent, it trails the Conservatives by one point.

More than one-quarter of voters say they are likely to change their minds before election day, and NDP supporters -- whom the Liberals are courting -- are the most likely to do so. (The NDP now stands at 17 per cent.)

But the Liberals' assault on Conservative values and credibility hasn't persuaded voters they should fear a government run by Conservative Leader Stephen Harper. Canadians are split over whether Mr. Harper is "too extreme" to be prime minister, as was the case the week before the election campaign began.

"It doesn't seem to be a barrier," Ipsos-Reid president Darrell Bricker said.

The new poll was conducted from Friday through Sunday. A seat projection based on the results would give the Conservatives -- who stand at 32 per cent nationally -- almost 30 seats more than the Liberals.

The previous two Ipsos-Reid polls gave the Liberals a one-point edge, down from a nine-point lead on the eve of the election call.

"The impressions which started at the beginning of the campaign, and really reach back to February, have now become entrenched," Mr. Bricker said. "The Liberals have descended to this level and now appear unable to climb out of it. The Conservatives have ascended to this level."

Liberal Leader Paul Martin's key problem remains Ontario, where his party trails the Conservatives, 34 per cent to the Tories' 36. This result is similar to an Ipsos-Reid poll published 10 days ago (although worse for the Liberals than one published five days ago) and suggests swing voters are just not being swayed by Liberal attempts to paint the Conservatives as beyond the Canadian mainstream on social issues such as abortion. The NDP is at 22 per cent provincially.

By losing the dominance in Ontario they enjoyed in the previous three elections, Mr. Bricker said, the Liberals no longer have a strong geographical base to formulate a winning strategy. A seat projection based on the new poll makes this clear.

It suggests the Conservatives would win 123 to 127 ridings if the election were held now, while the Liberals would be limited to 95 to 99. Ontario, which has 106 of the 308 seats in the House of Commons, would be split evenly between Liberal red and Conservative blue.

The Bloc Québécois would return to Ottawa with 60 to 64 seats on the basis of its 20-point lead in Quebec -- 48 to 28 for the Liberals.

The NDP is projected to win 22 to 26 seats nationally, including six in Ontario.

These results suggest that, if things stay the same during the final 13 days of the campaign, the Conservatives would win a substantial plurality of seats on June 28. Mr. Martin would have little chance of gaining the confidence of Parliament under any kind of coalition scenario. Mr. Harper, however, would be in a strong position to do so.

The seat projection indicates Mr. Harper would have more than one potential dance partner as he seeks the magic 155-seat mark needed to control a majority in the Commons. The Bloc would put him over the top easily. But combining the Conservatives and NDP would also come close -- possibly within two seats. Mr. Harper -- if he and the NDP arranged an entente despite ideological differences -- likely would seek his last votes from backbench Liberals who might be induced to switch sides.

"This would give [the Conservatives] a stronger bargaining hand for sure," Mr. Bricker said.

(The seat projections would leave the Liberals with their worst showing since 1988, when they won 83 seats, including 43 in Ontario and 12 in Quebec. It would also give the Bloc its best showing ever -- more than the 54 seats in 1993 that made the sovereigntist party the Official Opposition.

The two parties that formed the Conservatives -- the Canadian Alliance and the Progressive Conservatives -- won a total of 78 seats in the 2000 election. The NDP won 13 seats in 2000.)

The new poll finds that 27 per cent of voters say they are likely to change their minds about whom to support -- including 35 per cent of NDP supporters, 26 per cent of Conservatives, 23 per cent of Liberals and 18 per cent of Bloc supporters. Many of them say they expect the two debates -- the English-language version is tonight, after last night's French debate -- will help them make a final choice.

But this level of uncertainty is not historically high, Mr. Bricker noted.

Furthermore, the electorate's underlying view of the Martin government hasn't changed since the early days of the campaign. Only 29 per cent of those polled say it deserves to win office, compared with 65 per cent who say it is time to give another party a chance to govern.

In Atlantic Canada, the poll finds, the Liberals have built a commanding lead over the Conservatives and the NDP. In Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta, the Conservatives are well out in front of the Liberals and the NDP. The Conservatives are also ahead in British Columbia, but not by as large a margin.

The Green Party's support nationally stands at 6 per cent.

The poll of 1,000 adults is considered accurate to within 3.1 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

 

[wilde]

 

[wilde]

English debate

I watched as much as the English debate as humanly possible. Harper actually surprised me with his poise in answering some of the tougher questions. However, his positions reaffirmed his party's narrow minded right-wing small-c thinking.

 

[wolverine]

Just finishing watching the English debate. Still haven't made any firm decision yet. Martin still looked like a deer caught in the headlights of an 18-wheeler. Harper is so stiff and tight-assed that if he farted he'd make dogs howl. Layton looks too smarmy and slick. As for what they discussed, they told me nothing new or insightful.