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Is a Canadian Bank about to fail?

Cosmo

Riddle's unwrapped enigma
Jul 30, 2003
506
1
18
115
Throughout the emerging world wide financial crisis, Canadians have been fed the malarky that the major domestic Canadian banks are among the best-capitalized banks in the world. They maintain capitalization levels that exceed the minimum standards set by the Bank for International Settlements.

Ergo... Canadians have been told that we should not worry about the financial mess the Americans found themselves in.

And, as such, all of our banks are in great shape.

At least, that's what we were told in August.

In the run up to the election, our Prime Minister insisted our economy was in great shape, would not enter a recession, and that our finances were solid.

And when the election was over?

Suddenly the tune started to change... culminating with Harper's admission this week that the current economic crisis could be as dangerous as the financial collapse that began in 1929.

Did you know that the Canadian Government financial bailout - on a per capita basis - is larger than what the Americans have thrown at the crisis?

Why is that?

Could it be because one of our Big 5 banks is on the verge of collapse?

This recently inconceivable notion is now the talk of many blogs as the banks begin releasing the extent of the havoc the mortgage meltdown is causing to their bottom line.

For those keeping count, here are the total after tax charges suffered by the banks since the third quarter of 2007:

* Royal Bank has written down $1.086-billion representing 4% of its common equity.
* Scotia Bank has written down $899-million representing 4.8% of its common equity.
* Bank of Montreal has written down $638-million representing 4.2% of its common equity.
* National Bank has written down $484-million representing 10.3% of its common equity.
* TD Bank has written down $65-million representing 0.2% of its common equity.

But then there is the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce...

CIBC has written down $4.969-billion representing 46% of its common equity. Apparently there is another write-down of $1-Billion coming in December... raising the loss to almost 60% of its common equity.

CIBC is, apparently, teetering toward collapse.

In the United States there is another landmine similar to subprime that is about to raise it's ugly head (known as Alt-A and Jumbo Prime). Moodies estimates these exotics are going to trigger another $1-Trillion in defaults/foreclosures in the coming year.

This second earthquake is anticipated to be even more devestating to mortgage backed securities than was sub-prime.

As Prime Minister Harper said, the current economic crisis could be as dangerous as the financial collapse that began in 1929. Apparently it will be replete with similar bank failures too.

The ride has only just begun.
 

InTheBum

Well-known member
Dec 31, 2004
3,087
91
48
Throughout the emerging world wide financial crisis, Canadians have been fed the malarky that the major domestic Canadian banks are among the best-capitalized banks in the world. They maintain capitalization levels that exceed the minimum standards set by the Bank for International Settlements.

Ergo... Canadians have been told that we should not worry about the financial mess the Americans found themselves in.

And, as such, all of our banks are in great shape.

At least, that's what we were told in August.

In the run up to the election, our Prime Minister insisted our economy was in great shape, would not enter a recession, and that our finances were solid.

And when the election was over?

Suddenly the tune started to change... culminating with Harper's admission this week that the current economic crisis could be as dangerous as the financial collapse that began in 1929.

Did you know that the Canadian Government financial bailout - on a per capita basis - is larger than what the Americans have thrown at the crisis?

Why is that?

Could it be because one of our Big 5 banks is on the verge of collapse?

This recently inconceivable notion is now the talk of many blogs as the banks begin releasing the extent of the havoc the mortgage meltdown is causing to their bottom line.

For those keeping count, here are the total after tax charges suffered by the banks since the third quarter of 2007:

* Royal Bank has written down $1.086-billion representing 4% of its common equity.
* Scotia Bank has written down $899-million representing 4.8% of its common equity.
* Bank of Montreal has written down $638-million representing 4.2% of its common equity.
* National Bank has written down $484-million representing 10.3% of its common equity.
* TD Bank has written down $65-million representing 0.2% of its common equity.

But then there is the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce...

CIBC has written down $4.969-billion representing 46% of its common equity. Apparently there is another write-down of $1-Billion coming in December... raising the loss to almost 60% of its common equity.

CIBC is, apparently, teetering toward collapse.

In the United States there is another landmine similar to subprime that is about to raise it's ugly head (known as Alt-A and Jumbo Prime). Moodies estimates these exotics are going to trigger another $1-Trillion in defaults/foreclosures in the coming year.

This second earthquake is anticipated to be even more devestating to mortgage backed securities than was sub-prime.

As Prime Minister Harper said, the current economic crisis could be as dangerous as the financial collapse that began in 1929. Apparently it will be replete with similar bank failures too.

The ride has only just begun.
Hard to know where this financial bailout stuff will end, but from all the experts I've listened to, the Canadian Banks are in amazing shape. Yes, they have tanked recently...but you can expect them to still turn out huge profits. Example, last quarter the Royal Bank made over 1 Billion profit in 3 months of operations...this is more than all major US banks combined.

I think corporations making 1 billion profit per quarter in this shitty environment are sitting pretty.

Could one of the major 5 go down? Unlikely...BMO just released good quarter results. Royal is fine. TD had a poor quarter by their standards, due to write-downs but still made huge profits. So that leaves BNS and CM.
 

FunSugarDaddy

New member
Aug 15, 2008
1,110
5
0
The Canadan banks are in fine shape..this is good old fashion fear mongering.

I really don't see the point of starting endless threads designed to worry people, especially since at best it's speculation and at worst it's fear-mongering.

Just don't see the point.
 

jackcb

New member
Aug 30, 2008
245
0
0
banks posting year after year of record profits and complaining they cannot reduce or remove service fees for accessing your money suddenly going bankrupt? I'm giddy with glee and I know just were all the money went:rolleyes:

TBH, canadian banks are strong and are not that heavily into the subprime issues in the states. The fact they post decent profits shows something.
 

wolverine

Hard Throbbing Member
Nov 11, 2002
6,385
9
38
E-Town
The Big 5 Banks will not fail, they are heavily regulated enough that they may as well be Crown corporations. I can see some of the smaller regional banks going tits-up though.
 

kafka555

New member
Jul 5, 2002
246
0
0
CIBC have always been the riverboat gamblers of the Canadian banking industry, going back at least 30 years.
 

FuZzYknUckLeS

Monkey Abuser
May 11, 2005
2,212
0
0
Schmocation
Throughout the emerging world wide financial crisis, Canadians have been fed the malarky that the major domestic Canadian banks are among the best-capitalized banks in the world. They maintain capitalization levels that exceed the minimum standards set by the Bank for International Settlements.

Ergo... Canadians have been told that we should not worry about the financial mess the Americans found themselves in.

And, as such, all of our banks are in great shape.

At least, that's what we were told in August.

In the run up to the election, our Prime Minister insisted our economy was in great shape, would not enter a recession, and that our finances were solid.

And when the election was over?

Suddenly the tune started to change... culminating with Harper's admission this week that the current economic crisis could be as dangerous as the financial collapse that began in 1929.

Did you know that the Canadian Government financial bailout - on a per capita basis - is larger than what the Americans have thrown at the crisis?

Why is that?

Could it be because one of our Big 5 banks is on the verge of collapse?

This recently inconceivable notion is now the talk of many blogs as the banks begin releasing the extent of the havoc the mortgage meltdown is causing to their bottom line.

For those keeping count, here are the total after tax charges suffered by the banks since the third quarter of 2007:

* Royal Bank has written down $1.086-billion representing 4% of its common equity.
* Scotia Bank has written down $899-million representing 4.8% of its common equity.
* Bank of Montreal has written down $638-million representing 4.2% of its common equity.
* National Bank has written down $484-million representing 10.3% of its common equity.
* TD Bank has written down $65-million representing 0.2% of its common equity.

But then there is the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce...

CIBC has written down $4.969-billion representing 46% of its common equity. Apparently there is another write-down of $1-Billion coming in December... raising the loss to almost 60% of its common equity.

CIBC is, apparently, teetering toward collapse.

In the United States there is another landmine similar to subprime that is about to raise it's ugly head (known as Alt-A and Jumbo Prime). Moodies estimates these exotics are going to trigger another $1-Trillion in defaults/foreclosures in the coming year.

This second earthquake is anticipated to be even more devestating to mortgage backed securities than was sub-prime.

As Prime Minister Harper said, the current economic crisis could be as dangerous as the financial collapse that began in 1929. Apparently it will be replete with similar bank failures too.

The ride has only just begun.
Uh-huh. Care to state your sources for all these dire facts? 'cause without them, your spiel is nothing more than tabloid trash. :)
 

slacker

Member
Aug 14, 2006
199
0
16
No doubt CIBC is the big loser here. Their problems seemed to start a ways back though. When you say the write downs are almost half their equity, keep in mind their equity has shrunk the most (they are 30% of their value as of a year ago). But yeah that's what will happen when your performance sucks. It seems mostly that they are not well managed. Their EPS is like -30 right now.

I have some exposure to CIBC. I might lose out, but oh well, not the end of the world.

If things were left to the free market yeah maybe they will collapse. I doubt the feds will let it get to that though one way or another.

I don't think you can necessarily extrapolate CIBC's situation to all the other banks however. Maybe, maybe not. It would be like saying Chrysler dealerships are collapsing therefore Toyota dealerships are soon to follow. Quite the opposite really, the culling of the weak makes the strong stronger.
 

Cosmo

Riddle's unwrapped enigma
Jul 30, 2003
506
1
18
115
Uh-huh. Care to state your sources for all these dire facts? 'cause without them, your spiel is nothing more than tabloid trash. :)
LOL... the Wall Street Journal and New York Times are 'tabloid trash' in some people's eyes.

You can find these statistics on Canadian Bank write-downs for 2008 on a number of sites. This particular link will take you to an article from the Financial Post (November 25, 2008) which contains - what you so poignantly describe as - 'these dire facts':

http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=991381

We will, of course, all agree that the Financial post is doing nothing more than 'fear-mongering' by passing on these lil tidbits of information.

As for the pending calamity presented by Alt-A and Jumbo Prime... if you are truly interested, google Mr. Mortgage and search this US blogger's site for those terms. He backs up his posts with reams of documentation.

For kicks and giggles, search back his posts to 2004/2005. He is one of the earliest 'fear-mongers' who preached ill about what was going on in the US mortgage underworld and how it would wreak havoc on the US financial system.

Moodies.com also presents some chilling statistics on the $Trillion in pending foreclosures on the horizon.

.
 
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Classic

Active member
Jul 26, 2006
265
26
28
Uh no

The WSJ lost its credibility as a competent business paper with those who consider themselves true free market supporters a long time ago (and I don't mean Republicans- who fake being free market supporters). And NYT - ya whatever.

The CIBC has been the hardest hit and yes if this next writedown does occur that is a hit, but keep in mind Canadian banks have larger more liquid and stable reserves than American or European and even some Asian counterparts.

Compare that to CitiGroup which is 100 times smaller than the Royal Bank currently based on both equity and actual assets. And it is still the 4th largest banking entity in the country.

Canadian banks aren't bullet proof by any stretch, they will lose assets and profits but highly unlikely to fail. Makes for dramatic reading though - oh ya that is what a newspaper is all about - facts be damned.
 
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