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Investing - Future Considerations

cruiser

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Mar 17, 2007
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I was talking to an acquaintance this weekend about investments, etc and his opinion was that things are going to get worse before better. One of his points of reference was that the U.S. housing crisis is getting worse (prices are dropping more) and there is now a third war on the horizon.

In saying that, we got on the specifics of what areas to invest in. His comments were that he would be looking at getting into bonds (vs. equities) or going with a preferred share of a large corporation (eg., bank). He believes that within the next couple of years, stocks could fall again and it would be better to park your money in a more secure investment (bond or preferred stock), and you will be able to ride out the storm.

Just curious what others see on the horizon. Since we all come from different backgrounds, is there a possibility of another crash (in the next 3-4 years)? Are we recovering or should we be taking cautious steps on where we park our money?

Looking for feedback...

Cruiser
 

ilikegurlz

Member
Dec 19, 2009
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I am a Rookie Investor,

I have a RRSP in a fairly aggressive Mutual Fund (30/70) that I have been contributing to for the last 15 years or so and even through the "08 crash has come back and traeted me well (around 9%, including the downturn)

I have had a few stock tips, mostly in small/mid cap gold exploration companies, and some tips in other resources, that I have followed over the last 4 weeks or so...it looks like this might be the way to go...China has too much US$...the Euro is dependent on the weakest link(s)eg...Spain,Ireland,Greece.

My question is...Gold?...or Oil?...or Forestry Products?...Or will Tech be the way to go?

Anyway...I am going to invest in the stock market for the first time...15% of my investing $$$...any advice?

Thanks!
 

threepeat

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Sep 20, 2004
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Edmonton
I am a Rookie Investor,

I have a RRSP in a fairly aggressive Mutual Fund (30/70) that I have been contributing to for the last 15 years or so and even through the "08 crash has come back and traeted me well (around 9%, including the downturn)

I have had a few stock tips, mostly in small/mid cap gold exploration companies, and some tips in other resources, that I have followed over the last 4 weeks or so...it looks like this might be the way to go...China has too much US$...the Euro is dependent on the weakest link(s)eg...Spain,Ireland,Greece.

My question is...Gold?...or Oil?...or Forestry Products?...Or will Tech be the way to go?

Anyway...I am going to invest in the stock market for the first time...15% of my investing $$$...any advice?

Thanks!
My #1 piece of advice is educate and invest yourself, because only you know your risk tolerance and because financial advisors are salesmen at the end of the day.

With the two big caveats of (1) due your own due diligence, and (2) markets can be very volatile, so a newbie should not put 15% of investing dollars into anything at the start unless it`s a mutual fund or ETF, out of the way...

I made two fairly detailed posts on investing a while back, which are still relevant IMHO. I`m happy to say my stock pick Silvercorp (SVM) has doubled since I recommended it here :)

From: https://perb.cc/vbulletin/showthrea...-risk-taker.&p=1104170&highlight=#post1104170

My advice to a novice investor is always that you ultimately want to educate yourself and manage your own investments. Financial advisors have their place, but at the end of the day they are salesmen and you should not trust your advisor to manage your finances anymore than you should trust a car salesman to tell you what car to buy. For example, I am heavily invested in commodities. The mainstream considers commodities to be risky investments because of their volatility, and no financial advisor is going to recommend as heavy a weighting as I have because they don`t want the backlash if their client loses say 20% in a year. That being said, I am willing to accept that risk, and my RRSP is up 67% this year and I am averaging a 15% return annually since I started tracking in 2003. :)

If you truly can`t stand to do your own research and just want something to buy and forget, I`d say get a Canadian equities mutal fund or ETF and dollar cost average into it (ie., buy a fixed amount every paycheque).

I would not recommend mutual funds because of the relatively high fees as the other poster has said. Exchange Traded Funds are the ETFs of the new century -- they do everything mutual funds do, and they are cheaper and you can trade in and out of them more easily.

If you are willing to spend even a half hour or so every three months, a better solution would be to divide your portfolio into four equal quarters, each invested into a different sector. My own suggestion for you would be:
* 25% broad Canadian equities (eg., Claymore Investments Canadian Fundamental Index ETF - TSE:CRQ)
* 25% Canadian utilities (eg., BMO Equal Weight Utilities Index ETF - TSE:ZUT)
* 25% emerging markets (eg., Claymore BRIC ETF - TSE: CBQ)
* 25% commodities (eg., iShares S&P/TSX Capped Materials Index Fund - TSE: XMA)

Every three months, rebalance your portfolio so each sector is an equal 25% again. The idea is that over the course of the year your relative percentage invested in each sector will change as some funds go up and some go down. By rebalancing your portfolio on a regular basis you are buying low and selling high.

You might be content doing this strategy for the rest of your life, but I would suggest this is just a starting point. Again you want to educate yourself to the point where you can buy a basket of individual stocks, say about 10 to 15, and actually have an opinion on why you like this company or this fund.

I`m not picking on you, but just talking generally I`m always surprised that people spend so much time working on their careers and typically won`t spend a few minutes a week working on their investments and managing the fruits of their hard work.

Anyway, I hope that gets you started and good luck with your investments. If you have any other questions, please feel free to post them or PM me :)
From: https://perb.cc/vbulletin/showthread.php?126281-Buying-gold&p=999181&highlight=#post999181

Hi Maya, everyone has their own views on the subject, so here is mine.

Gold and silver are the ultimate preserver of wealth -- they hold the same buying power now as they did hundreds or even thousands of years ago. A popular rule of thumb in the gold community is that an ounce of gold has always been able to buy a nice man`s suit. So while precious metals can be volatile over the short term, over the long term they are actually very stable.

If you are buying gold to preserve your wealth for years or decades from now, buy the actual metal and don`t settle for anything less. You pay a bigger premium for the actual metal when buying or selling because the company you bought it from actually has to come up with the gold. It`s not just a piece of paper that they hope you won`t cash in on one day. In one of my previous posts I mentioned an article that said there is 400 times the amount of paper gold in this world vs. actual metal, based on the amount traded on the COMEX every day. That should tell you how scare real gold is vs. paper gold. That being said, paper gold definitely has a place as a trading vehicle to buy and sell out of as the opportunity presents itself. But if you are wanting paper gold or silver, I say just buy the gold and silver ETFs (GLD and SLV respectively) that are traded on the New York Stock Exchange every day and dispense with the certificates altogether. No fuss, not even any paper to worry about, it`s all digital and the transaction fees are very small vs. the spot price of the metal.

Because gold is the ultimate preserver of wealth, it`s not necessarily the best investment if you want to actually make money vs just maintaining what you have. If you want to speculate in precious metals, you should look into the stocks of precious metal mining companies. If you start doing your research you will come up with some good ones, or you can simply buy the gold miners ETF on the stock exchanges. The ticker symbol is XGD on the TSX and GDX on the NYSE.

My own personal favourite precious metal stock is Silvercorp (SVM to the TSX). They are a Canadian company but own the largest silver mine in China, so their labour costs are very low compared to mines in other countries; the CEO said they can start up a mine in China in two years vs. seven in North America; their cash cost of mining silver is actually negative because they have bimetallic credits (meaning they pull out a bunch of other metal when mining for silver that they can sell as "bonus money" to offset the cost of mining silver); and I am extremely bullish on silver itself vs. gold. While I have been a believer in the upside of silver for a while I read this article on silver recently and was in awe at how well the writer presented his case on an upcoming silver shortage. Have a look if you are interested: http://www.thestreet.com/story/10691881/1/silver-supply-crisis-looms-part-1.html

As for buying gold and silver, my favourite choice is to purchase government-minted gold and silver coins like the Canadian Maple Leaf or U.S. Silver Eagle:

They are internationally recognized and so should be easy to trade, and you have a reasonable certainty that they have not been counterfeited or tampered with, and that the actual amount of metal promised is in the coin. The premiums are a bit higher, but to me the liquidity is worth the extra money.

As for where to buy it, if you are buying small quantities like $200 or less, the easiest way is to go to a coin dealer you can trust. If you are buying larger quantities, I recommend going to ScotiaMocatta, which is the precious metals branch of Scotiabank and the largest precious metals bank in the world. The downside to buying it at Scotiabank is that it is a bit of hassle -- whenever I buy I need to present two pieces of government identification and the transaction take about half an hour. On the plus side the premiums are relatively low, and if you keep your purchase receipt they guarantee you will be able to get the spot price of the metal back when you sell.

Hope that helps :)

P.S. A few common arguments against gold:
1) It`s just a piece of shiny metal. To which I say: what is a dollar? It`s just a piece of paper. At least gold took some work and effort to mine, rather than a bank just printing out more of it. It comes down to trust and do you trust the government to not debase your currency?
2) It doesn`t earn interest. No it doesn`t, but it doesn`t have to because it has intrinsic value. Real estate doesn`t earn interest either, but people don`t seem to question it as an investment.
3) You can`t eat gold, so it will have no worth in bad times. Let`s say I had a whole truckload of hamburgers in my house. They would only hold value for about two days, after which they will have gone bad and lost their value. Plus some people will not eat beef or meat. The whole reason for money coming into existence was as a common form of exchange so people wouldn`t have to barter using things they didn`t want or that would go bad or were a bugger to carry around. Maybe everyone can use some chickens in bad times, but try carrying those around from place to place.

Aristotle defined what makes a good money and came up with the following characteristics: (1) it must be durable, (2) it must be portable, (3) it must be divisible and consistent -- if you cut a piece of gold in half each half is worth half of the whole, which sets it apart from say, diamonds, and (4) it must have intrinsic value. The only metals that really satisfy this is gold and silver.
 

InTheBum

Well-known member
Dec 31, 2004
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If you want to invest in preferred shares...I have about 3% in CPD on the tsx. It's an ETF...

It should be okay for now...but if interest rates start to climb...it will likely drop in value.

Note, off the top of my head it pays about 5% a year return, paid monthly...plus hopefully appreciation in value.
 

FunSugarDaddy

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Aug 15, 2008
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Investing is a lot easier than most people think, that said most also don't follow the basics. By the time you're deciding what to invest in, you should have done a lot more things prior to making that decision.

1. You should have some idea what the funds are for, when they are going to be needed and how much you think you'll need.

2. You should understand your risk tolerance level.

3. You should have some idea what rate of return you require to reach your goals and structure your portfolio accordingly. If you only need a 4% a year return, you might be able to have a 80/20 split towards safe investments relative to say needing a 10% annual return, where you'd likely be inclinded to take more risk.

4. diversify using low cost investment products such as etf's. Costs Matter.

5. If you want to try hitting a few home runs, do it with money you can afford to waste, and not with the bulk of your retirement fund. As for the most part you should really be investing long term, and not taking sector bets or betting on a single stock to get you where you want to go. The danger is you have dramatic losses you can't recover from.

6. If one wants to skew their investments to something a little safe that pays half decent, I'd probably look at private 1st mortgages and things of that nature, making sure the LTV is under 70% and pay attention to why the banks won't fund it. Often times new immigrants don't have credit ratings, or people self employed aren't claiming all their income.

Some construction loans are paying about 8-9% on first mortgages, so they may also be attractive, but you have to look closely at the security being offered and realize these are not liquid, some can take 18-24 months before completion.

7. Keep it simple. I remember reviewing one clients portfolio and she had about 20 mutual funds and was told she was well diversified and she believed it herself. Problem was, they were all in Canadian equities, of which one or two would have done the job, and some of the others could have been allocated to different markets, or investments with a different risk assessment. This was why her portfolio moved so dramatically when the markets corrected.

8. Use the tax laws to your advantage. That basically means that to the extent possible, equities should be held outside of RRSP's as gains only get taxed at 50% and losses can be applied against the gains, where as in RRSP's a dollar is a dollar is a dollar. Same with dividends, outside an RRSP you can get a dividend credit. So fixed income in RRSP's and in TFSA I'd probably go with a small cap etf or mutual fund, something that will assure a long term gain without the risk of it crashing, because if it does, you can't use the capital losses.

9. Monitor your investments, which goes hand in hand with keeping things simple.
 
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ilikegurlz

Member
Dec 19, 2009
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Thanks for the advice.

Threepeat- yes 15% is probably too much to risk, at least until I get some more experience in the stock market.

Funsugardaddy- I hadn't considered ETF's, I was thinking I wanted to do a little more than just mutual funds.

Maybe I will pick up another mutual fund weighted in different sectors than my current fund and use my TFSA for an ETF, as well as my first dip into the stock market (although I will gamble with a lot less than I was originally planning)

Thanks again for taking the time to help out!

BTW: I opened a TD Webbroker acct...$29 per trade...I figured that would be the best way to keep costs down and give me a little more "hands-on" experience.
 
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cruiser

New member
Mar 17, 2007
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If you want to invest in preferred shares...I have about 3% in CPD on the tsx. It's an ETF...

It should be okay for now...but if interest rates start to climb...it will likely drop in value.

Note, off the top of my head it pays about 5% a year return, paid monthly...plus hopefully appreciation in value.
I've never looked at an ETF....still trying to understand them.

Did you buy them on your own (like a stock) or did you go through your financial advisor?

5% per year (paid monthly) is ok.

Have you looked at any others?
 

RacerCarl

New member
Apr 6, 2011
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Personally, I'm far too busy to learn how to invest myself. I put all my money into Mutual Funds for the most part. Those funds come in all degrees of risk and in 15 years of investing I have never lost money. The worst I've experienced is slow periods with smaller than average dividends.
 
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