To understand the economic situation we face now one must gain a basic understandng of the past.
The economic mess we are faced with now is merely a repeat in, simplistic terms, of what we have seen before & in the media you have no doubt heard reference of our current economic situation to the crash of 1929.
Read this article about what started the stock market boom in 1929:
http://www.stock-market-crash.net/1929.htm
You will note that those conditions are very similar to the conditions we had in the early to late '90's.
Likewise, we had a steep rise in Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) after 1995 when Freddie Mac was unleashed to offer Fannie Mae loans packaged in MBS portfolios.
Read the following:
This condition is referred to as the market being in a Bubble.
The bubble was not limited to the housing finance sector alone due to the massive amount of MBS's sold to investors in many sectors, even traditional banking, attempting to capitalize on the profits being made on these loans.
Traditional banks had been restricted from buying & selling stock in real estate by the Glass-Steagall Act. This Act was put in place in the 1930s following the bank failures during the Great Depression.
It was designed to keep banks out of the speculation business.
The change in the lending industry brought about by the Clinton administration allowed loans to be issued to those previously not qualified for a loan & these relaxed qualifications also increased the no money down loans being issued to real estate investors.
The market reached levels that were not realistic to the actual monetary value of the homes due to the investor frenzy behind Mortgage Backed Securities.
This frenzy caused a further unrealistic rise in property values due to the sheer volume of loans being made.
Bill Clinton took the restraints off of the CRA by signing a bill to repeal the Glass-Steagall Act.
This Act was put in place in the 1933 following the 1929 crash and bank failures which caused the Great Depression.
It was designed to keep banks out of the speculation business.
The repealing of the Glass-Steagall Act is probably the most explicit and detrimental action a President has ever done to cause the downfall of the American economy.
The economic mess we are faced with now is merely a repeat in, simplistic terms, of what we have seen before & in the media you have no doubt heard reference of our current economic situation to the crash of 1929.
Read this article about what started the stock market boom in 1929:
http://www.stock-market-crash.net/1929.htm
You will note that those conditions are very similar to the conditions we had in the early to late '90's.
Likewise, we had a steep rise in Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) after 1995 when Freddie Mac was unleashed to offer Fannie Mae loans packaged in MBS portfolios.
Read the following:
To understand what happens in the stock market you need to understand a bit of psychology.At the root of the subprime problem is a new class of specialized mortgage lender that has emerged in recent years to operate free of the regulations affecting traditional banks. In the mid-1970s, traditional institutions such as savings and loans had nearly 60% of the mortgage market. Now that stands at about 10%. Over the same period, commercial banks' share has grown from virtually nothing to about 40%.
Many of the new lenders specialize in loans to borrowers who could not qualify for traditional mortgages because of poor credit or low incomes. And they have passed the risk on to investors around the world who are eager to buy mortgage-backed securities carrying higher yields than those offered by safer investments such as U.S. Treasury bonds.
http://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu/article.cfm?articleid=1812
Behavioral finance can be used to predict what the market will do in a Bull or Bear market.Behavioral Finance
A field of finance that proposes psychology-based theories to explain stock market anomalies. Within behavioral finance it is assumed that the information structure and the characteristics of market participants systematically influence individuals' investment decisions as well as market outcomes.
Behavioral finance often includes studies on herd psychology.
As in 1929 our current condition was preceded by a strong Bull market that had continued far longer & grown more than most had assumed it would.Bull Market
A bull market is a financial market condition when prices of an instrument, such as stocks, are trending higher.
The bull market tends to be associated with economic growth and expectations of further capital gains.
The opposite of a bull market is a bear market where the market is trending lower.
Bear Market
A market condition in which the prices in a financial market are falling or are expected to fall.
This condition is referred to as the market being in a Bubble.
This is what has happened to the current housing & stock market.Bubble
A bubble occurs when speculation in a financial instrument causes the price to increase, thus producing more speculation. The market price then reaches absurd levels and the bubble is usually followed by a sudden drop in prices, known as a market crash.
The term refers to how, like a soap bubble, the prices will reach a point at which they pop and collapse violently.
The bubble was not limited to the housing finance sector alone due to the massive amount of MBS's sold to investors in many sectors, even traditional banking, attempting to capitalize on the profits being made on these loans.
Traditional banks had been restricted from buying & selling stock in real estate by the Glass-Steagall Act. This Act was put in place in the 1930s following the bank failures during the Great Depression.
It was designed to keep banks out of the speculation business.
The change in the lending industry brought about by the Clinton administration allowed loans to be issued to those previously not qualified for a loan & these relaxed qualifications also increased the no money down loans being issued to real estate investors.
From wikipedia:
"Due to these previous credit problems, these individuals may also be precluded from obtaining any type of conventional loan.
To meet this demand, lenders have seen that a tiered pricing arrangement, one which allows these individuals to receive loans but pay a higher interest rate and higher fees, may allow loans which otherwise would not occur.
In 1999, under pressure from the Clinton administration, Fannie Mae, the nation's largest home mortgage underwriter, relaxed credit requirements on the loans it would purchase from other banks and lenders, hoping that easing these restrictions would result in increased loan availability for minority and low-income buyers. Putting pressure on the GSE's (Government Sponsored Enterprise) Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the Clinton administration looked to increase their sub-prime portfolios, including the Department of Housing and Urban Development expressing its interest in the GSE's maintaining a 50% portion of their portfolios in loans to low and moderate-income borrowers.[7]"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_lending#Proponents
The market reached levels that were not realistic to the actual monetary value of the homes due to the investor frenzy behind Mortgage Backed Securities.
This frenzy caused a further unrealistic rise in property values due to the sheer volume of loans being made.
Bill Clinton took the restraints off of the CRA by signing a bill to repeal the Glass-Steagall Act.
This Act was put in place in the 1933 following the 1929 crash and bank failures which caused the Great Depression.
It was designed to keep banks out of the speculation business.
The repealing of the Glass-Steagall Act is probably the most explicit and detrimental action a President has ever done to cause the downfall of the American economy.
The above link to Frontline gives a complete account of the events around the repeal of Glass-Steagall & this cannot be underestimated in it's impact on the lending institutions.![]()
1933 - Glass-Steagall Act creates new banking landscape
Following the Great Crash of 1929, one of every five banks in America fails. Many people, especially politicians, see market speculation engaged in by banks during the 1920s as a cause of the crash.
In 1933, Senator Carter Glass (D-Va.) and Congressman Henry Steagall (D-Ala.) introduce the historic legislation that bears their name, seeking to limit the conflicts of interest created when commercial banks are permitted to underwrite stocks or bonds. In the early part of the century, individual investors were seriously hurt by banks whose overriding interest was promoting stocks of interest and benefit to the banks, rather than to individual investors. The new law bans commercial banks from underwriting securities, forcing banks to choose between being a simple lender or an underwriter (brokerage). The act also establishes the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), insuring bank deposits, and strengthens the Federal Reserve's control over credit.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/wallstreet/weill/demise.html
Oct.-Nov. 1999 - Congress passes Financial Services Modernization Act
After 12 attempts in 25 years, Congress finally repeals Glass-Steagall, rewarding financial companies for more than 20 years and $300 million worth of lobbying efforts. Supporters hail the change as the long-overdue demise of a Depression-era relic.
On Oct. 21, with the House-Senate conference committee deadlocked after marathon negotiations, the main sticking point is partisan bickering over the bill's effect on the Community Reinvestment Act, which sets rules for lending to poor communities.
Sandy Weill calls President Clinton in the evening to try to break the deadlock after Senator Phil Gramm, chairman of the Banking Committee, warned Citigroup lobbyist Roger Levy that Weill has to get White House moving on the bill or he would shut down the House-Senate conference.
Serious negotiations resume, and a deal is announced at 2:45 a.m. on Oct. 22.
Whether Weill made any difference in precipitating a deal is unclear.
On Oct. 22, Weill and John Reed issue a statement congratulating Congress and President Clinton, including 19 administration officials and lawmakers by name. The House and Senate approve a final version of the bill on Nov. 4, and Clinton signs it into law later that month.
Just days after the administration (including the Treasury Department) agrees to support the repeal, Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, the former co-chairman of a major Wall Street investment bank, Goldman Sachs, raises eyebrows by accepting a top job at Citigroup as Weill's chief lieutenant. The previous year, Weill had called Secretary Rubin to give him advance notice of the upcoming merger announcement.
When Weill told Rubin he had some important news, the secretary reportedly quipped, "You're buying the government?"
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontl...ll/demise.html
The Community Reinvestment Act (or CRA, Pub.L. 95-128, title VIII, 91 Stat.
1147, 12 U.S.C. § 2901 et seq.) is a United States federal law that requires
banks and savings and loan associations to offer credit throughout their
entire market area and prohibits them from targeting only wealthier
neighborhoods with their services, a practice known as "redlining." The
purpose of the CRA is to provide credit, including home ownership
opportunities to underserved populations and commercial loans to small
businesses. It has been subjected to important regulatory revisions. (repeal of Glass-Steagall)
Last edited:




