Current Israeli/Lebanese conflict

[gravitas]

I have a particularly uneasy feel about this current round of fighting between the Jews and Arabs and am concerned that the stage could be set for it to spiral out of control into World War III. Iran is just looking for a reason to flex it muscle, north Korea is on the verge pulling some crazy shit of their own and if Pakistan's Musharraf were to loose control there's a ready supply of nuclear weapons.

Will be interesting to hear the take from the usual suspects here on PERB.

 

[westwoody]

Someone asked that two thousand years ago, someone else will ask it in another two thousand years.
Sad thing is about 80-90% of the population in both places just want peace and quiet, but the shit disturbers on both sides can't behave themselves.

 

[schizo_man]

I feel that this situation has the potential to be an all out WW3, what with such hatred and mistrust on both sides.

 

[sdw]

I have a particularly uneasy feel about this current round of fighting between the Jews and Arabs and am concerned that the stage could be set for it to spiral out of control into World War III. Iran is just looking for a reason to flex it muscle, north Korea is on the verge pulling some crazy shit of their own and if Pakistan's Musharraf were to loose control there's a ready supply of nuclear weapons.

Will be interesting to hear the take from the usual suspects here on PERB.

When you start adding up the various factors, it's clear that Iran has nuclear weapons and a delivery system.

Reasons:

1 Iran was sitting and waiting for the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq up to about 9 months ago.

2 There were real peace talks in Israel/Gaza/Westbank up to about 9 months ago.

3 Hezbollah and Hamas are both very connected to Iran.

4 Hamas was elected in Gaza/Westbank but didn't do anything unusual until recently.

5 Hamas kidnapped an Israeli soldier.

6 Hezbolla kidnapped 2 Israeli soldiers.

7 Both knew the predictable Israeli reaction. (I think that Israel is the author of much of their own misery, they are extreamly predictable)

8 Hamas and Hezbolla are no longer using homebuilt rockets, they are using Chinese rockets that are purchased by Iran.

9 Hezbolla's rockets are accurate enough that they can hit an Israeli gunboat at sea. (the homemade ones were lucky to hit the same square mile the target was in)

10 Iran is making moves to unite Syria, Lebanon, the Palestines

I have no idea why Iran couldn't continue waiting until the Americans withdrew from Iraq. It may be that they think it is better to catch those 150,000 troops on the ground in Iraq.

If the US loses those troops, they don't have the ability to conduct operations while Iran unifies the region.

It is possible that the Wahbis are the ones who are driving the timing.

If, in the next week or so, the US carriers in the region are hit we will know that they are confident of their resources. The US airpower is mainly carrier based.

 

[OTBn]

PNAC – and the neo-con plan rolls on!

The repugs can’t lose the upcoming mid-term elections, so… we’ve got Israel setting it up for Bushco to bring some US style democracy to Syria and Iran… plus the exit strategy for Iraq as a nice throw in. Don’t you just love it when a plan comes together!

Stay tune for the rhetoric to ramp up about the bugaboo threat of Iran WMD’s being hidden in Lebanon – perfect for the incurably dumb American electorate to shit in their pants and line up (once again) with their “War President” – cause only Dubya can save em!

 

[sdw]

PNAC – and the neo-con plan rolls on!

The repugs can’t lose the upcoming mid-term elections, so… we’ve got Israel setting it up for Bushco to bring some US style democracy to Syria and Iran… plus the exit strategy for Iraq as a nice throw in. Don’t you just love it when a plan comes together!

Stay tune for the rhetoric to ramp up about the bugaboo threat of Iran WMD’s being hidden in Lebanon – perfect for the incurably dumb American electorate to shit in their pants and line up (once again) with their “War President” – cause only Dubya can save em!

I would still argue that the Republicans are not going to win the mid terms. That's why I don't understand why Iran is moving early. The mid terms were going to result in a very strong call to reduce the number of troops in Iraq. There is no way that the Republicans were going to win in 2008. The Democrats could have rerun Kerry and won.

Bush was steered by Rumsfeld, Cheney and others into Iraq and it has proven to be a huge mistake. Bush Sr was his own man and able to say no to their silly Jacobite ideas, Bush Jr isn't his own man and has buried the US in Trillion dollar debt and organized military resistance.

My paranoid side says that Iran wants to catch a very large part of the US military might on the ground. The loss of that might is going to change the rules very big time.

 

[dexi]

Stay tune for the rhetoric to ramp up about the bugaboo threat of Iran WMD’s being hidden in Lebanon – perfect for the incurably dumb American electorate to shit in their pants and line up (once again) with their “War President” – cause only Dubya can save em!

I've been thinking the same thing. The GOP is set to lose control in the midterm elections based on their popularity being in the shitter. You can bet they'll be telling the electorate of imminent threats to the "American way of life" leading up to that fateful day in November.

 

[87112]

Goddammmit the world is going the wrong way. Wasnt it not too long ago, the biggest news stories were pure entertainment- OJ Simpson, Clinton sex scandal, and that Joan Bennett Ramsey kidnapping. Frankly all these middle east mother flappers need to fuck themselves. Its not a light world, I used to want to travel the world to escape but now its just seems more burden than fun.

 

[FuZzYknUckLeS]

When you start adding up the various factors, it's clear that Iran has nuclear weapons and a delivery system.

Reasons:

1 Iran was sitting and waiting for the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq up to about 9 months ago.

2 There were real peace talks in Israel/Gaza/Westbank up to about 9 months ago.

3 Hezbollah and Hamas are both very connected to Iran.

4 Hamas was elected in Gaza/Westbank but didn't do anything unusual until recently.

5 Hamas kidnapped an Israeli soldier.

6 Hezbolla kidnapped 2 Israeli soldiers.

7 Both knew the predictable Israeli reaction. (I think that Israel is the author of much of their own misery, they are extreamly predictable)

8 Hamas and Hezbolla are no longer using homebuilt rockets, they are using Chinese rockets that are purchased by Iran.

9 Hezbolla's rockets are accurate enough that they can hit an Israeli gunboat at sea. (the homemade ones were lucky to hit the same square mile the target was in)

10 Iran is making moves to unite Syria, Lebanon, the Palestines

I have no idea why Iran couldn't continue waiting until the Americans withdrew from Iraq. It may be that they think it is better to catch those 150,000 troops on the ground in Iraq.

If the US loses those troops, they don't have the ability to conduct operations while Iran unifies the region.

It is possible that the Wahbis are the ones who are driving the timing.

If, in the next week or so, the US carriers in the region are hit we will know that they are confident of their resources. The US airpower is mainly carrier based.

What a steaming pile of conspiracy-theory BS! The kidnappings were simply an attempt at securing some leverage in getting their 'innocents' out of Israeli prison. The intense over-reaction by the U.S.-fed Israeli war machine is just a result of the fuckers wanting to test some of their high priced weaponry in a real-world scenario. This shit will likely drag on for the next 30-odd years, just like it has been for the last 30-odd years.

 

[sdw]

What a steaming pile of conspiracy-theory BS! The kidnappings were simply an attempt at securing some leverage in getting their 'innocents' out of Israeli prison. The intense over-reaction by the U.S.-fed Israeli war machine is just a result of the fuckers wanting to test some of their high priced weaponry in a real-world scenario. This shit will likely drag on for the next 30-odd years, just like it has been for the last 30-odd years.

Sorry, can't buy the idea that Israel wants to test 20 year old tanks.

The Israeli government reacts as they do because they were all terrorists in their youth.

What people seem to like to forget is that Israel is where terrorism was proved to work. Israel used terror to get the Brits out. When the Brit commander threatened to kill 10 jews for every casualty that his men took, Israel pulled out the holocast card and he and his troops were recalled.

That left the Jewish terrorists in charge of Israel and they are still in power. When the US Congress looks like they won't pony up the money to keep the purely artificial state going, the Israelis pull out the holocast card again.

There really aren't any military planners/observers who don't understand the situation in Israel. All understand that the US is only a cash cow for the Israeli government and has no control over them.

This is why Carter, Regan, Clinton, etal have been unable to get Israel to keep any of their agreements in the various peace plans.

Israel always has been able to count on the Arab terrorists to respond to the conditions that they keep the Gaza and Westbank under.

The difference this time is that Hezbollah is using real weapons and not homemade crap. That is why the kidnappings took place. Everyone knows what Israel will do given a reason they can trumpet to the world.

 

[georgebushmoron]

Israel always has been able to count on the Arab terrorists to respond to the conditions that they keep the Gaza and Westbank under.

True.

The difference this time is that Hezbollah is using real weapons and not homemade crap. That is why the kidnappings took place.

You're putting the cart before the horse. The use of real weapons happened after the kidnappings, not the other way around as you put it. The use of "real weapons" is a response to Israeli military aggression.

Everyone knows what Israel will do given a reason they can trumpet to the world.

True.

When you start adding up the various factors, it's clear that Iran has nuclear weapons and a delivery system.

Reasons:...

I didn't bother quoting your reasons as "evidence" Iran has nukes and a delivery system because they are not even reasons or evidence at all. What you cited is an insensible deduction.

My paranoid side says that Iran wants to catch a very large part of the US military might on the ground.

If real life were like the boardgame Risk, you'd be King of the world. But thankfully the world is a lot more complex. Iran is not going to attack militarily neither the US nor Israel. It would lose because the retaliation by the US and Israel would be with nukes, and without so much as even a pause. Iran attacks the US and Israel through satellite states by sponsoring terrorism, with economic attacks (by flooding the world with counterfeit US dollars, by manipulating oil prices, by threatening oil shipments), with influence over Iraq via the Shia, and through diplomacy with Russia and China. The threat of having nukes is only a diplomatic tool for Iran, just like what it is for N.Korea.

WW3 is not going to break out due to this conflict. No Arab states have publicly declared defense of Lebanon, and it is doubtful they will. Such a declaration risks war with Israel, and since Israel is by far the greatest military power there (Egypt has become far weaker than it was before), there is no point in going to war against it. Even Russia has been quite muted... it seems the world is trying not to react. The best option for the Arab states against Israel is more terrorism, possibly a "dirty bomb" set off in Jerusalem. Perhaps they want to one day destabilize Israel using such tactics.

 

[sdw]

You're putting the cart before the horse. The use of real weapons happened after the kidnappings, not the other way around as you put it. The use of "real weapons" is a response to Israeli military aggression.

The weapons had to be in place in order to be used this early. It would take some time to get them there and it wouldn't be by sea. Israel is pretty aggressive about checking shipping. The weapons were already there when the kidnappings took place.

If real life were like the boardgame Risk, you'd be King of the world. But thankfully the world is a lot more complex. Iran is not going to attack militarily neither the US nor Israel. It would lose because the retaliation by the US and Israel would be with nukes, and without so much as even a pause. Iran attacks the US and Israel through satellite states by sponsoring terrorism, with economic attacks (by flooding the world with counterfeit US dollars, by manipulating oil prices, by threatening oil shipments), with influence over Iraq via the Shia, and through diplomacy with Russia and China. The threat of having nukes is only a diplomatic tool for Iran, just like what it is for N.Korea.

The US is going to have to sell Congress on a military responce of any type. Since Congress was lied to in order to allow the war in Iraq, they aren't going to be easy to convince.

Both Iran and North Korea long ago realized the way to keep the Jacobites in the US government from attacking them is to have nukes.

The Iraq war demonstrated to them that you can't pull a Saddam and pretend that you have them, you have to actually have them.

This adventure isn't the act of a country that lacks confidence.

WW3 is not going to break out due to this conflict. No Arab states have publicly declared defense of Lebanon, and it is doubtful they will. Such a declaration risks war with Israel, and since Israel is by far the greatest military power there (Egypt has become far weaker than it was before), there is no point in going to war against it. Even Russia has been quite muted... it seems the world is trying not to react. The best option for the Arab states against Israel is more terrorism, possibly a "dirty bomb" set off in Jerusalem. Perhaps they want to one day destabilize Israel using such tactics.

Iran's president made a speach calling for the removal of Israel. This adventure has to be put in context with Iran's declared intentions. Remember also that Israel sent warplanes into Iran years ago to bomb the nuclear program they had at the time.

 

[rollerboy]

I feel that this situation has the potential to be an all out WW3, what with such hatred and mistrust on both sides.

I'll take the other side of that bet.

Betting against WW3 breaking out soon has always been a winner for me. Where's my calender? Nope. No Apocalypse scheduled.

Hell, Iran and Israel worst case could nuke each other someday. I don't really see that as a compelling reason for Russia, China, and the US to start launching ICBM's at each other.

I don't see anything genuinely new going on here. Just the ancient cycle of violence in the Middle East flaring up again. Shit, even the Romans wrote about this. Terrorism works. Sort of. It doesn't work in the sense that it promotes the greater good. In fact, it keeps the region in the dark ages, favors repressive military regimes, brutality, harms economic, political and social development and reform. Terrorism works in the sense that it impedes the enemy from accomplishing their goals, establishing their envisioned order.

Iran and Syria are testing Israel and by proxy the US. This happens all the time, particularly when new governments take power. Olmert's establishing his cred as a hawk, which he pretty much has to do coming from a non-military background.

 

[rollerboy]

10 Iran is making moves to unite Syria, Lebanon, the Palestines

I have no idea why Iran couldn't continue waiting until the Americans withdrew from Iraq. It may be that they think it is better to catch those 150,000 troops on the ground in Iraq.

If the US loses those troops, they don't have the ability to conduct operations while Iran unifies the region.

It is possible that the Wahbis are the ones who are driving the timing.

If, in the next week or so, the US carriers in the region are hit we will know that they are confident of their resources. The US airpower is mainly carrier based.

Wow. You should have your own crackpot conspiracy show on public access cable, man.

 

[schizo_man]

I'll take the other side of that bet.

Betting against WW3 breaking out soon has always been a winner for me. Where's my calender? Nope. No Apocalypse scheduled.

Hell, Iran and Israel worst case could nuke each other someday. I don't really see that as a compelling reason for Russia, China, and the US to start launching ICBM's at each other.

I don't see anything genuinely new going on here. Just the ancient cycle of violence in the Middle East flaring up again. Shit, even the Romans wrote about this. Terrorism works. Sort of. It doesn't work in the sense that it promotes the greater good. In fact, it keeps the region in the dark ages, favors repressive military regimes, brutality, harms economic, political and social development and reform. Terrorism works in the sense that it impedes the enemy from accomplishing their goals, establishing their envisioned order.

Iran and Syria are testing Israel and by proxy the US. This happens all the time, particularly when new governments take power. Olmert's establishing his cred as a hawk, which he pretty much has to do coming from a non-military background.

what we're seeing here though is polarization, a widening middle ground that fewer nations will go into. n. korea's ally's are not necessarily ally's anymore. Isreal and the Arabian countries are the same. When you see such disruption in the balence of power, it can't be a good thing, can it?

 

[sdw]

Wow. You should have your own crackpot conspiracy show on public access cable, man.

lol, Actually I'm not massaging the available data nearly as much as the Bush Administration did to justify the war in Iraq.

The Bush Administration claimed that Iraq was funding and training terrorists.

Iran is supporting Hezbollah and Hamas.

The Bush Administration claimed that Iraq was providing weapons to terrorists.

Iran has provided the rockets that Hezbollah is using.

The Bush Administration claimed that Iraq was building Nuclear Weapons and other WMDs.

Iran is in possession or near possession of a Nuclear Weapon. They admit they have an active Nuclear program.

The big difference is I can't start a war, the Bush Administration did.

 

[schizo_man]

shit there lies the problem, georgie can't spell!! when he said invade Iraq, he menat to use an "N" instead of a "Q"!!

 

[Tyrone785]

Unfortunately maybe not this time but there is a good chance that in the next 10-20 years there will be a big war or at least a big cold war with china/us supplying factions that are supportive to them. Another cold war between the us and china has already started pretty much with the us invasion of iraq for oil while china indirectly supplies hezbollah and other factions with anti us settiment. Not to mention the oil prices are making countries desperate to get some control over the middle east to prevent economic collapse.

 

[luckydog71]

The one note Johnnies are back. It is all Bush’s fault!!!! It is all Bush’s fault!!!

I was watching for the last few days wondering how long it would take for the someone to jump in and blame Bush. This poll started out as a discussion focused on what would happen. Many are rightfully concerned that this conflict has the potential to spread into a region war. I doubt this could become WWIII, but it is very concerning.

I knew it would turn. There are a few on this board whose response has to be “it is Bush’s fault”. It is ironic that you criticize Bush for not stopping the conflict.

The US and Britain took on Iraq without support from France, Russia and Germany and the RoW was outraged.

The US and Britain have decided not to take on Iran or NK without a coalition of the major powers including Russia, Germany, and China. We do not need France for anything except wine (whine).

The US and Britain have decided not to directly engage in the Israeli / Hezbollah fight without a coalition and the lefties now scream it is a plot to help the GOP in the 06 election.

Russia is obviously taking Hezbollah’s side in calling for a “balanced” response. US is obviously taking Israeli’s side in claiming Israel has a right to defend itself.

The majority of American citizens have learned a valuable lesson from the Iraq conflict. Our military intervention into regional conflicts does not result in support except from our closest allies. The correct approach is to call for peace, to pass UN resolutions that have no teeth.

I hope that Bush stays the new course he has set. No military intervention. Provide help to your allies, such as satellite reconnaissance information and even military equipment, but the US troops stay out. We need to wait until Russia, China and the US all agree before responding.

I want US troops in Iraq, Korea and Germany to come home. I do not want them redeployed to Iran, Lebanon, Syria, or any other hot spot. The best course is to let the locals fight it out until one side has totally annihilated the other.

We need to let the UN do its job. I heard that Kofi Annan did phone Ehud Olmert and asked him nicely to stop fighting.

 

[gotsome2004]

Israel

Israeli politics is influenced by American advisors who think they're dealing with indians of the old west.

It's a disgusting and brutal occupation. Of course the Palestinian public will organize themselves into resistance.

The only thing that stands in the way of obliteration of Israel is her military.
And no military power on the face of the earth has ever lasted indefinitely.

Unless Israel drastically change the way she deals with her neighbors and Palestine, there definitly will be no Israel in the long run.