I always thought he was a fool to pay the settlement (extortion) money.
My guess is, he was sooooo sick of all the BS, he just wanted it done and gone. That, plus the burden of proof in a civil case is much different than a criminal case, much lest stringent. So with hearsay and a bunch of loose circumstantial 'evidence', you can still lose, even if it was not true. With a coerced child testifying...
Look at his judicial strategic position as if you were MJ:
the word of a child against yours, whom the world views as a talented but personal 'freak'?
And what other rich persons own a mansion designed for a second childhood called Neverland? Your odds are not good in civil court. Furthermore, you are certainly going to suffer further, (perhaps worse) terrible character assassination by the viscious prosecution. Even if not true. Who wants that? And 20 million is pocket change to him...Anyone who can rent a mansion for $100,000 a month, paying 20 million is not a huge sweat.
(Not the best example, but look at OJ for example. He was convicted by lawsuit, even when the glove (one glove, at that!) didn't fit, when he was not-guilty in criminal court. With Michael, we already know the one glove fits - sorry, had to).
Yes, 20 mil may be pocket money, but he was so totally stupid to do it,
as now everyone can point to it and say, "if he wasn't guilty, why would he pay?".