Isn't that a really good reason for voting Green or changing the voting system?
BC election thread
- Thread starter badbadboy
- Start date
I want the system changed or at least the electoral system. Nonetheless, we had a say, and it was no. Should be off the table for a while
I would ;like to run naked through an old growth forest,with Sonia Furstenau,shaking tambourines and throwing flowers in the air.
If I lived in the Cowichan electoral riding,I would certainly vote to keep Sonia Furstenau in office,her charisma is not going un-noticed.
Engelbert Humperdink
If I lived in the Cowichan electoral riding,I would certainly vote to keep Sonia Furstenau in office,her charisma is not going un-noticed.
Engelbert Humperdink
With just 1 day left, I imagine most people will have already voted by mail or advance polls.
If anyone is still on the fence and wanting to vote strategically, here's some advice:
The NDP have a very solid lead, all throughout this campaign, so the real question is going to be whether there will be a limit to their power or whether they run away with it.
Their objectives have been to A) wipe out the Green party, B) control the next 4 years, and C) wipe out the Green party.
If you are an NDP supporter, the plan should be obvious in most ridings - you vote NDP. There are however a few ridings where the NDP could never conceivably win - generally affluent, or rural bible-belt places - so in some of these a "progressive" (boy I hate that term) voter could choose Green for a strong second place, knowing that environmentalism might be more locally popular than socialism. West Van Sea-To-Sky has been named as one such place; West-Van Capilano and North Van-Seymour might be others.
If stopping the NDP is your idea of a good result, or just limiting their power so they don't run amok the next 4 years, then things get more complicated.
In the 3 ridings the Greens hold now - Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Cowichan, and Saanich, a Liberal supporter feeling like there is no hope of a Liberal win might throw their support to the Greens instead. The reason would be to continue the fracture of "the left" (again, I dislike this term), making it harder for the NDP in the next election after this one. (If the NDP succeeds in wiping out the Greens this time, that is a big strategic advantage over the next 4 years, and like I said they may run amok.)
Likewise, if a Green supporter is stuck in a riding where Green hopes are completely forlorn (or they have no candidate), then I suppose they have to decide if theirpriority is one of "closer ideology" or "punish NDP betrayal / limit NDP power".
If you are a supporter of the BC Conservatives (yes they exist), there is not much to do except to think of how best to fuck the NDP in your local area. Maybe in some of the "bible belt" ridings like Chilliwack the Con candidate has a chance. But if one was a social conservative in Laurie Throness' riding, perhaps it would make sense to support him as an Liberal-turning-independent and then maybe see if he can be convinced to flip to the Conservative party after the election.
Just some thoughts on those who might choose to be tactical rather than ideological.
I suspect that tomorrow's voting day coverage will be a yawner. The reporters who usually rush to be the first to declare candidates and governments elected (all that "decision desk" shit) will have a whole lot of nothing to say this time around.
Something like 1 million mail-in ballots were requested, and assumed they were almost all mailed, then it will be two more weeks until their counting is done. So basically, every result tomorrow night will be have the caveat that it is pending the real count of votes. Normally, mail-in ballots would only serve to decide a result that is very close (like within 1 or 2 percent) - but this time the largest mass of ballots might be those whose results we can't know for two more weeks. Perhaps only the most obvious winners in the most obvious safe seats will be decided by tomorrow. Trends might be observed, but as the political reporters have already pointed out, the trend for the early round of mail-ins will look different than the count of votes cast at the end of the campaign. Lots of people voted early if they knew what they wanted - but lots of people have remained undecided right up to the last days.
What I wonder about is total turnout. Lots of mail-in ballots suggest lots of people want to vote. But on the other hand, the election was called suddenly, at a time when there was not a lot of anger out there to drive up turnout.
The BC Liberals wanted to of course make people feel angry about the 3 years of NDP government policies, but if their campaign ends up being a failure, does that mean people were satisfied with the policies created by the NDP-Green governing arrangement? Maybe - weird idea here, I know - people generally liked what they saw happening and wanted it to continue.
If people wanted it to stop, then the question comes down to what the opposition had to offer. I'd say the BC Liberals still have the money laundering / housing crisis, health care & education austerity, the legislature scandal, and fucking up BC Ferries, BC Hydro, and ICBC hanging around their necks like a dead albatross. Still no signs of contrition from them over any of that, and I think that hurt them more with the public than any bozo eruptions over socially conservative candidates or candidates running their mouth at a ribald retirement roast. You have to convince people that there is something wrong with what's going on now, and not make it seem like if you gain power, you're just going to go back to all the same things that pissed the public off before.
The BC Liberals - because of this pandemic - also couldn't sell their usual "support big business, tax less, privatize everything" arguments. The promises to chop the PST and burn down ICBC sound great in the minds of dedicated right wingers, but most people just shrugged that off as ridiculous under these conditions. Maybe what it would take to sell that is a public that was already angry after too many years of NDP government and a bunch of scandals - we're not at that stage yet, even if die-hard BC Liberals think that every day of NDP government is automatically an outrage.
However, if the NDP win a "majority" government, it might be their undoing 4 years from now. We have seen only what the NDP would do after 3 years where they were subject to the oversight of having to hold power only with Green (and rarely Liberal) legislative support... and then the pandemic shockwave flattening most partisanship.
The arrangement with the Greens put some limits on what the NDP could do or what they could keep secret. Sometimes they went too far and the Greens shut that shit down. Perhaps instead of resenting the lack of absolute power, Horgan should thank the Greens for preventing the NDP from getting themselves in trouble. Of course, Horgan won't thank the Greens for creating the conditions for his "majority" if he gets one. That's not how politics works, is it? If it was not for a mix of opportunism and resentment, we wouldn't have this election right now.
Is that what we will see? An NDP "majority" government? Every poll has had the NDP out front by a lot. It would be a colossal polling failure if that would not turn out to be the end result.
For me the main question is not whether they win, but where. I hope the Greens are not wiped out as Horgan intends, that's the main thing for me. Whether another minority or an NDP majority, the idea of the Greens being eliminated takes us back to the stupid kind of polarized politics there used to be in BC. The NDP want it because they (foolishly) think that's the key to having a string of election wins; they forget how those conditions usually ended with the other guys winning instead.
If the BC Liberals lose even a few seats, and the NDP takes the majority by eating into LIberals seats (rather than just Green ones), then Wilkinson will have his head in the guillotine before Christmas. They still might get rid of him even without that, but honestly, I don't think they could have done better in this election than a loss of some kind. The conditions for a NDP defeat were just not there yet. After all, that is why Horgan called it now, rather than waiting until after the cold COVID winter and all the horrors it will bring.
If anyone is still on the fence and wanting to vote strategically, here's some advice:
The NDP have a very solid lead, all throughout this campaign, so the real question is going to be whether there will be a limit to their power or whether they run away with it.
Their objectives have been to A) wipe out the Green party, B) control the next 4 years, and C) wipe out the Green party.
If you are an NDP supporter, the plan should be obvious in most ridings - you vote NDP. There are however a few ridings where the NDP could never conceivably win - generally affluent, or rural bible-belt places - so in some of these a "progressive" (boy I hate that term) voter could choose Green for a strong second place, knowing that environmentalism might be more locally popular than socialism. West Van Sea-To-Sky has been named as one such place; West-Van Capilano and North Van-Seymour might be others.
If stopping the NDP is your idea of a good result, or just limiting their power so they don't run amok the next 4 years, then things get more complicated.
In the 3 ridings the Greens hold now - Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Cowichan, and Saanich, a Liberal supporter feeling like there is no hope of a Liberal win might throw their support to the Greens instead. The reason would be to continue the fracture of "the left" (again, I dislike this term), making it harder for the NDP in the next election after this one. (If the NDP succeeds in wiping out the Greens this time, that is a big strategic advantage over the next 4 years, and like I said they may run amok.)
Likewise, if a Green supporter is stuck in a riding where Green hopes are completely forlorn (or they have no candidate), then I suppose they have to decide if theirpriority is one of "closer ideology" or "punish NDP betrayal / limit NDP power".
If you are a supporter of the BC Conservatives (yes they exist), there is not much to do except to think of how best to fuck the NDP in your local area. Maybe in some of the "bible belt" ridings like Chilliwack the Con candidate has a chance. But if one was a social conservative in Laurie Throness' riding, perhaps it would make sense to support him as an Liberal-turning-independent and then maybe see if he can be convinced to flip to the Conservative party after the election.
Just some thoughts on those who might choose to be tactical rather than ideological.
I suspect that tomorrow's voting day coverage will be a yawner. The reporters who usually rush to be the first to declare candidates and governments elected (all that "decision desk" shit) will have a whole lot of nothing to say this time around.
Something like 1 million mail-in ballots were requested, and assumed they were almost all mailed, then it will be two more weeks until their counting is done. So basically, every result tomorrow night will be have the caveat that it is pending the real count of votes. Normally, mail-in ballots would only serve to decide a result that is very close (like within 1 or 2 percent) - but this time the largest mass of ballots might be those whose results we can't know for two more weeks. Perhaps only the most obvious winners in the most obvious safe seats will be decided by tomorrow. Trends might be observed, but as the political reporters have already pointed out, the trend for the early round of mail-ins will look different than the count of votes cast at the end of the campaign. Lots of people voted early if they knew what they wanted - but lots of people have remained undecided right up to the last days.
What I wonder about is total turnout. Lots of mail-in ballots suggest lots of people want to vote. But on the other hand, the election was called suddenly, at a time when there was not a lot of anger out there to drive up turnout.
The BC Liberals wanted to of course make people feel angry about the 3 years of NDP government policies, but if their campaign ends up being a failure, does that mean people were satisfied with the policies created by the NDP-Green governing arrangement? Maybe - weird idea here, I know - people generally liked what they saw happening and wanted it to continue.
If people wanted it to stop, then the question comes down to what the opposition had to offer. I'd say the BC Liberals still have the money laundering / housing crisis, health care & education austerity, the legislature scandal, and fucking up BC Ferries, BC Hydro, and ICBC hanging around their necks like a dead albatross. Still no signs of contrition from them over any of that, and I think that hurt them more with the public than any bozo eruptions over socially conservative candidates or candidates running their mouth at a ribald retirement roast. You have to convince people that there is something wrong with what's going on now, and not make it seem like if you gain power, you're just going to go back to all the same things that pissed the public off before.
The BC Liberals - because of this pandemic - also couldn't sell their usual "support big business, tax less, privatize everything" arguments. The promises to chop the PST and burn down ICBC sound great in the minds of dedicated right wingers, but most people just shrugged that off as ridiculous under these conditions. Maybe what it would take to sell that is a public that was already angry after too many years of NDP government and a bunch of scandals - we're not at that stage yet, even if die-hard BC Liberals think that every day of NDP government is automatically an outrage.
However, if the NDP win a "majority" government, it might be their undoing 4 years from now. We have seen only what the NDP would do after 3 years where they were subject to the oversight of having to hold power only with Green (and rarely Liberal) legislative support... and then the pandemic shockwave flattening most partisanship.
The arrangement with the Greens put some limits on what the NDP could do or what they could keep secret. Sometimes they went too far and the Greens shut that shit down. Perhaps instead of resenting the lack of absolute power, Horgan should thank the Greens for preventing the NDP from getting themselves in trouble. Of course, Horgan won't thank the Greens for creating the conditions for his "majority" if he gets one. That's not how politics works, is it? If it was not for a mix of opportunism and resentment, we wouldn't have this election right now.
Is that what we will see? An NDP "majority" government? Every poll has had the NDP out front by a lot. It would be a colossal polling failure if that would not turn out to be the end result.
For me the main question is not whether they win, but where. I hope the Greens are not wiped out as Horgan intends, that's the main thing for me. Whether another minority or an NDP majority, the idea of the Greens being eliminated takes us back to the stupid kind of polarized politics there used to be in BC. The NDP want it because they (foolishly) think that's the key to having a string of election wins; they forget how those conditions usually ended with the other guys winning instead.
If the BC Liberals lose even a few seats, and the NDP takes the majority by eating into LIberals seats (rather than just Green ones), then Wilkinson will have his head in the guillotine before Christmas. They still might get rid of him even without that, but honestly, I don't think they could have done better in this election than a loss of some kind. The conditions for a NDP defeat were just not there yet. After all, that is why Horgan called it now, rather than waiting until after the cold COVID winter and all the horrors it will bring.
The woke will vote NDP thinking they are virtuous progressives, without recognizing they are voting for a liar who has spent his entire life in either union or provincial politics, and whose word means nothing. Horgan signed an agreement with the Greens and he reneged. Pure and simple... Horgan is a liar who will do anything for personal gain
Well it looks like the Province has given the NDP a majority government even though an election wasn't necessary. Regardless enjoy your paychecks boys. I lived through NDP majority governments in Saskatchewan and in Ontario during my life time and regardless of the orange stripe the stripe will turn white and they become as corrupt as any other government in a majority position. They will stink like skunks.
But with the NDP it will cost you with higher taxes and huge deficits.
But with the NDP it will cost you with higher taxes and huge deficits.
Horgan best bet, is to move to centralist tactics, to raise the tax a bit, try job creation, stay away from big ticket NDP crap, increase health care and school system spending. Tax non renewalable natural resources at a higher rate, save 40% of it as a slush fund. And the big thing is to find INCOME for the government....
Concentrate on Shelter, Food, Water.
Increase the middle class, eliminate the poor and homeless through effective government agencies/policies.
So far his government has been scandal free, but that is going to change with the majority.
Concentrate on Shelter, Food, Water.
Increase the middle class, eliminate the poor and homeless through effective government agencies/policies.
So far his government has been scandal free, but that is going to change with the majority.
Horgan can do a lot of good with the majority if he he actually fixes things like ICBC, and doesn’t stick it to our pooning budget by putting taxes on taxes to finance overspending.
Then if there’s a personal scandal or payoff off to union cronies, he’ll be premier “Whore-Gain” pretty quick! ???
Then if there’s a personal scandal or payoff off to union cronies, he’ll be premier “Whore-Gain” pretty quick! ???
I think Horgan and the NDP remember the days of Glen Clark and the ensuing 15 years of being the Opposition party.
Hopefully they learnt their lesson.
Horgan should be thanking Jason Kenney.
A lot of BCers probably look at the right wing shitshow in Alberta and thank baby Jesus for the Rockies.
A lot of BCers probably look at the right wing shitshow in Alberta and thank baby Jesus for the Rockies.
I can't recall any politician learning a lesson or recalling history so as not to repeat something.
Look at Trudeau right now. Second term in and he learned nothing during the first term even when he lost a majority he acted like he had a majority. Mark my words that Trudeau will start the nominating process of getting candidates prepared for a february 2021 election. Look at Harper before him. Same corruption.
Horgan with a majority will be corrupt and within the month will be awarding infrastructure to NDP ridings like handing out Candy running the biggest deficit in BC history and raising taxes.
At the federal level the new PC guy looks charasmatic, if he plays his cards well he will be the next PM. First he must lay off the scandal shit of the liberals, its old news and no one wants to hear about it. He should talk about economy stagegy, new jobs, new tech, make companies pay for the non-renewable resources. eg a 15 to 35 % tax on taking it out of the ground. Mega projects, like high speed rail between Cdn cities, which would be slower than planes but more environmentally friendly. putting more money into infrastructure.
NDP wins majority; Andrew Wilkinson resigns.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/andrew-wilkinson-resigns-1.5777282
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/brit...ote-in-every-region-of-the-province-1.5776543
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/andrew-wilkinson-resigns-1.5777282
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/brit...ote-in-every-region-of-the-province-1.5776543
Not super-surprised at the results. Of two objectives Horgan was after, he got one (the legislative majority) and not the other (Greens being gone).
Surprised at the magnitude of the NDP win, and particularly where the NDP penetrated (LOL) - Richmond, east Fraser Valley. That's just a signpost of how much people did not want Wilkinson and his party in power.
Glad the Greens are still in the game, and now on the Mainland too. It's a shame they didn't get more seats, but considering the election call was timed to catch them unprepared and cripple them, they did well.
But you can bet the NDP will still try to prevent them from getting any official party status in the legislature this time around. They may have the same number of seats, but the NDP has zero incentive to follow that precedent.
The BC Liberals... LOL, they did not learn from Christy Clark's defeat, and they paid for their inability to change or convince people they had changed. All the desperate campaign promises meant nothing when people already knew what they are really about. Now they will need a new leader, and go through all the jockeying for leadership. Maybe along the way they will finally admit the truth and rid themselves of the "Liberal" name that is a holdover from when the defeated Socreds did a hostile takeover of Gordon Wilson's Liberals and installed Gordon Campbell. The party and name is just a flag of convenience for a right wing party; they become more estranged from the federal Liberals with each passing year. Who shall lead them next? Who cares? Will they now jump ship take over the BC Conservative Party? Maybe !
As for the NDP "majority" - mark my words they will make the same mistake as so many other governing parties, and fail to see this moment is just the low point for their arch-rivals. Yes, the NDP had a decent enough 3.5 years so far, but that was with the Greens keeping them on-task and preventing them from overstepping. Now comes the lack of oversight the NDP were dreaming of, and they will act like nothing can stop them, so then the fuck-ups will start to pile up. Like all false "majorities" before them, eventually they'll do something that turns the public against them, forgetting that they already started out with more power than they actually deserved, so it can only go downhill from there. (As always, blame First-Past-The-Post.)
Someone else said that political parties never learn, and I would tend to agree - maybe not 100%, but mostly. The parties have to be what they are, ideologically. Why else are they there except to represent certain beliefs? But it goes beyond that.
It's still is clear that when the public kicks their ass with an election defeat, they skulk off for a little while and refuse to believe that maybe their policies were in the wrong. They convince themselves that their problem was a failure to sell it - basically that the problem is not their substance but their style.
In this election, the public was pretty clear on it, because they saw the contest for what it really was: the Social Services Party, versus the Corporate / Austerity Party, versus the Environmentalist Party. That's really all anyone needed to know, and the public made their choice.
Surprised at the magnitude of the NDP win, and particularly where the NDP penetrated (LOL) - Richmond, east Fraser Valley. That's just a signpost of how much people did not want Wilkinson and his party in power.
Glad the Greens are still in the game, and now on the Mainland too. It's a shame they didn't get more seats, but considering the election call was timed to catch them unprepared and cripple them, they did well.
But you can bet the NDP will still try to prevent them from getting any official party status in the legislature this time around. They may have the same number of seats, but the NDP has zero incentive to follow that precedent.
The BC Liberals... LOL, they did not learn from Christy Clark's defeat, and they paid for their inability to change or convince people they had changed. All the desperate campaign promises meant nothing when people already knew what they are really about. Now they will need a new leader, and go through all the jockeying for leadership. Maybe along the way they will finally admit the truth and rid themselves of the "Liberal" name that is a holdover from when the defeated Socreds did a hostile takeover of Gordon Wilson's Liberals and installed Gordon Campbell. The party and name is just a flag of convenience for a right wing party; they become more estranged from the federal Liberals with each passing year. Who shall lead them next? Who cares? Will they now jump ship take over the BC Conservative Party? Maybe !
As for the NDP "majority" - mark my words they will make the same mistake as so many other governing parties, and fail to see this moment is just the low point for their arch-rivals. Yes, the NDP had a decent enough 3.5 years so far, but that was with the Greens keeping them on-task and preventing them from overstepping. Now comes the lack of oversight the NDP were dreaming of, and they will act like nothing can stop them, so then the fuck-ups will start to pile up. Like all false "majorities" before them, eventually they'll do something that turns the public against them, forgetting that they already started out with more power than they actually deserved, so it can only go downhill from there. (As always, blame First-Past-The-Post.)
Someone else said that political parties never learn, and I would tend to agree - maybe not 100%, but mostly. The parties have to be what they are, ideologically. Why else are they there except to represent certain beliefs? But it goes beyond that.
It's still is clear that when the public kicks their ass with an election defeat, they skulk off for a little while and refuse to believe that maybe their policies were in the wrong. They convince themselves that their problem was a failure to sell it - basically that the problem is not their substance but their style.
In this election, the public was pretty clear on it, because they saw the contest for what it really was: the Social Services Party, versus the Corporate / Austerity Party, versus the Environmentalist Party. That's really all anyone needed to know, and the public made their choice.
I think most elections boil down to one question. In this case, the question is what party is best to navigate through Covid. That's why 0% PST had almost zero relevance to voters. It's also why the NDP made inroads into the Fraser Valley and other ridings... old people who are normally right wing, went with the big government party because of concerns around Covid. This is where the Liberals dropped the ball. While Wilkinson had little charisma, he is a medical doctor. They could have built an election platform around a Covid response and he could have sold himself as the pragmatic doctor and made himself into a Bonnie Henry type character.
This is why Trump is in trouble too. Older voters in Florida are probably going to shift Democrat just over Covid.
In four years, the question won't be how do we respond to Covid. It's going to be jobs and the economy. And that's how the NDP are going to be judged. The pendulum in ridings that swung NDP will shift back for that reason.
rlock, I would argue that a strong majority is actually a positive for Horgan, not a negative. In my view there is actually less risk of overstepping. The reason is that the NDP typical infight and eventually backstab their leaders because they have a lot of special interest groups that want to effect change. When you have a small majority, you're forced to give those people a bit of what they want because they can rightfully stab you in the back. But with an 11 seat majority, Horgan has complete control and autonomy. If anybody steps out of line, you have room to punish them. It's very easy to whip your members in a strong majority. That's not just speculation... I can tell you in private conservations, Horgan has more or less said as much.
I believe that deep down Horgan is a pragmatist. I think he sees the bigger picture and knows that change takes a long time and the the NDP are better off playing the long game, rather than jumping from one special interest issue to another, which is the natural inclination of their MLA's. You win elections by satisfying the middle and the middle class... the everyday person and family.
If you're a Liberal like me, you can be happy that this government is not likely to do crazy things, but on the downside, they could become the Natural Governing Party. I don't think it's likely the Liberals are going to win the next one either. I think this government has at least 8 more years, short of BC becoming an economic basket case in 4 years. If you're high income like me, get used to higher taxes, more bureaucracy and friction to business.
This is why Trump is in trouble too. Older voters in Florida are probably going to shift Democrat just over Covid.
In four years, the question won't be how do we respond to Covid. It's going to be jobs and the economy. And that's how the NDP are going to be judged. The pendulum in ridings that swung NDP will shift back for that reason.
rlock, I would argue that a strong majority is actually a positive for Horgan, not a negative. In my view there is actually less risk of overstepping. The reason is that the NDP typical infight and eventually backstab their leaders because they have a lot of special interest groups that want to effect change. When you have a small majority, you're forced to give those people a bit of what they want because they can rightfully stab you in the back. But with an 11 seat majority, Horgan has complete control and autonomy. If anybody steps out of line, you have room to punish them. It's very easy to whip your members in a strong majority. That's not just speculation... I can tell you in private conservations, Horgan has more or less said as much.
I believe that deep down Horgan is a pragmatist. I think he sees the bigger picture and knows that change takes a long time and the the NDP are better off playing the long game, rather than jumping from one special interest issue to another, which is the natural inclination of their MLA's. You win elections by satisfying the middle and the middle class... the everyday person and family.
If you're a Liberal like me, you can be happy that this government is not likely to do crazy things, but on the downside, they could become the Natural Governing Party. I don't think it's likely the Liberals are going to win the next one either. I think this government has at least 8 more years, short of BC becoming an economic basket case in 4 years. If you're high income like me, get used to higher taxes, more bureaucracy and friction to business.
