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I hate to say I told ya so - but....

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Nov 18, 2003
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Gold Coins aren't treated as money for the purpose of sale. They are actually treated as collectors items. That means that sales tax applies.

Just as I advise against Gold Certificates, shares in Gold Plans, shares in Gold Mines, etc - I also advise against Gold Bullion.

Basically, the ownership of Gold Coins is so that you have something that is recognized as money to use to purchase what you need in the early part of a major disaster and major collapse of the monetary system.

Gold Coinage and Gold Bullion will always cost you more than their redeemable value to purchase. Cold Coinage is always a legal tender of the issuing government and therefore IS money. Gold Bullion is subject to valuation and a buyer would want to be assured of it's quantity and purity. Therefore, you can't easily convert Gold Bullion into money when needed and may not find anyone willing to accept it in payment for what you need.

It would be foolish to own more Gold Coinage than would be necessary to enable you to purchase what you need during the first year of a major disaster. Remember, the American government made ownership of ALL Gold illegal the last time there was a major financial disaster. That's what the movie Goldfinger is all about. That is why the Americans could peg Gold at 35 dollars an ounce until 1968. Nixon didn't get rid of the Gold Standard in 1968 to help out the Mining Industry. He got rid of the Gold Standard so that he could inflate the American Dollar and pay cents on the dollar for the Vietnam War debt. That is what is happening right now. The Americans once more have a war debt and also a debt for all of their social spending and flat out boondoggles. They are going to pay that debt with inflated currency. They will also return to a Gold Standard. When they do that, they will make ownership of Gold illegal and peg Gold at whatever value serves their purposes.

What we all have to do is survive the period of time between now, and when they impose a Gold Standard.

What people like to forget is that this game has been played out in the past and that people that know history can predict fairly accurately what is going to happen.

While Canada has a robust Banking System due to our requirements for banking liquidity, we still peg our dollar on it's relationship to the American Dollar. There isn't an alternative since all other global currencies are also pegged on the American Dollar and the American consumer market will be run for the benefit of Americans and not for the benefit of the Global Economy.

We are going to suffer deflation in direct relationship to the inflation of the American Dollar.

On your question about storage food, the big companies are mostly run by Mormons. That's because a tenant of their religion is the storage of a year's worth of food.

http://www.mountainhouse.com/
http://www.theepicenter.com/

All of the long storage food is pretty boring to eat and it's an effort to keep it in your diet so that you can keep your supply fresh. There isn't much that has a shelf life much past 18 months - 2 years. So, you have to consume it and keep purchasing more.

Yes, there is a reason that most of us don't do this stuff.

Avoid buying MREs. Meals Ready to Eat that are on the market are MREs that had already been delivered to the American Military, reached the end of their shelf life and sold at auction to the people who are selling them to you.

Remember, the Americans are at war and the military gets all of the fresh MREs.
Yep, MREs don't last long and apparently can cause serious constipation. What I was referring to was pre-cooked food that's dehydrated/freeze-dried. They are suitable for super long-term storage (20 years or longer). Companies such as Mountain House and Alpine Aire carry these items, but they won't ship to Canada because they don't want to deal with the CFIA (CFIA seems to have a problem even with cooked meat...). And there are no Canadian companies that make similar products. The problem with typical canned foods is that they are not designed for long term storage and therefore must be work into daily consumption and purchase new stocks.

If you had 100k cash, how would you diversify? In particular, how much would you invest in gold/silver coins? I am thinking of taking out 90% of my savings in the bank (I don't really need the 1.x% earned interest as financial institutions are losing their credibility or requiring bailouts, even though the deposit is insured), but am not sure as to what to do with it. Any advice would be appreciated.

Note to self: At current market price, an hour with an SP in Vancouver costs between one 1/10 to 1/4 oz. gold coin.
 

FunSugarDaddy

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Aug 15, 2008
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To the best of my knowledge those who have bet on gold have lost far more often then they gained. I was watching BNN today and a gold-bull said he's selling because he can't figure out why it's not increasing given all the turbulance in the world. This is a guy running a gold fund no less. As his comments were being discussed gold was dropping by about $30 bucks.

And as someone on CNN pointed out last week, if you invested in gold over the last 30 years your return was basically nothing, certainly less than inflation.

If I recall in the 70's gold traded above a $1,000/US today it's about $915 and that's after a considerable run up in price.
 

Krustee

Banned
Nov 9, 2007
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To the best of my knowledge those who have bet on gold have lost far more often then they gained. I was watching BNN today and a gold-bull said he's selling because he can't figure out why it's not increasing given all the turbulance in the world. This is a guy running a gold fund no less. As his comments were being discussed gold was dropping by about $30 bucks.

And as someone on CNN pointed out last week, if you invested in gold over the last 30 years your return was basically nothing, certainly less than inflation.

If I recall in the 70's gold traded above a $1,000/US today it's about $915 and that's after a considerable run up in price.
I think I've been pretty clear on what I think is the role of Gold in a person's financial planning.

Gold is a hedge to allow a person liquidity during a major disaster and not an income producing investment. Therefore, Gold coins are the only form of Gold that should be held.

The problem with "investing" in Gold is that all other forms of Gold (except coins) do not give you liquidity. Gold Bullion is subject to assay, Gold Certificates are subject to redemption and Gold Shares don't actually give a person a share in any Gold.

Any person with the financial resources should own some Gold coins. The problem is that some people are sheep and follow the advice of biased "advisers" who's advice is designed to increase the wealth of the adviser and not the person seeking advice.
As alinburnaby says you are looking at it all wrong FSD, the reason he & I are promoting Gold is not because of what a great investment it is but because it & other precious metals are a stable commodity in these unstable times.

If you're looking for good investments then you will need to wait for this market to bottom out & nobody's sure when that will be.

Until then you need to divest yourselves of any holdings that could see large fluctuations in their value, such as equity stock & cash.

With the market in a free-fall the way it is now you do not want to be holding large sums of anything volatile.

Hence the reason for suggesting that you buy & hold Gold & other precious metals that have traditionally held their value in times of market instability.

When the market stabilizes in a few years then would be the time to convert your gold holdings to something with a chance of earning some better equity.

:cool:
 

FunSugarDaddy

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Aug 15, 2008
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As alinburnaby says you are looking at it all wrong FSD, the reason he & I are promoting Gold is not because of what a great investment it is but because it & other precious metals are a stable commodity in these unstable times.

If you're looking for good investments then you will need to wait for this market to bottom out & nobody's sure when that will be.

Until then you need to divest yourselves of any holdings that could see large fluctuations in their value, such as equity stock & cash.

With the market in a free-fall the way it is now you do not want to be holding large sums of anything volatile.

Hence the reason for suggesting that you buy & hold Gold & other precious metals that have traditionally held their value in times of market instability.

When the market stabilizes in a few years then would be the time to convert your gold holdings to something with a chance of earning some better equity.

:cool:
Well I'm confused if you're trying to tell me precious metals haven't been adversely affected by all this market activity. AFAIK, precious metals are influenced by the laws of supply and demand just like most things are. And obviously if you expect to sell coins for more than their face value then the material in which they are made from has to have appreciated.

I just finished reviewing a chart tracking gold prices and they've actually declined over the last year by about 8%. So are you trying to tell me the coins have gone up in value while the material to make them has declined in the same period? And Platium and silver have done far worse in the same period.

Bonds have held their value as the Ishares Cdn short bond index fund (XSB) posted an annual 8% return as of December 31, 2008. So this seems like a better hedge against equities then gold does, at least over this particular 1 year period.
 
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Krustee

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Nov 9, 2007
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Well I'm confused if you're trying to tell me precious metals haven't been adversely affected by all this market activity. AFAIK, precious metals are influenced by the laws of supply and demand just like most things are. And obviously if you expect to sell coins for more than their face value then the material in which they are made from has to have appreciated.
The coins will be the most stable but bullion is also something that one could exploit to earn some profit especially if the market gets worse as is expected by every economic strategist out there lest a couple wild cards.

Like Stephen Leeb promotes in his book:



- we may see the price of gold double or triple before this is all over.
It's worth a read as well as his other book:




Keep in mind we are at the tip of the iceberg in this economic down turn.

There is a Helluva lot we have not seen yet - still to come!

 

FunSugarDaddy

New member
Aug 15, 2008
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The coins will be the most stable but bullion is also something that one could exploit to earn some profit especially if the market gets worse as is expected by every economic strategist out there lest a couple wild cards.


- we may see the price of gold double or triple before this is all over.
It's worth a read as well as his other book:


There is a Helluva lot we have not seen yet - still to come!

I don't really understand this at all. If gold coins were going to increase in value surely they would have done so in the last year and AFAIK they haven't.

If this is the case please explain why and then explain why it's going to shoot up in the future when it didn't shoot up in the worst financial crisis in living memory.
 

Krustee

Banned
Nov 9, 2007
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I don`t really understand this at all. If gold coins were going to increase in value surely they would have done so in the last year and AFAIK they haven`t.

If this is the case please explain why and then explain why it`s going to shoot up in the future when it didn`t shoot up in the worst financial crisis in living memory.
You are basing what you think on what you have seen.

What you need to do is look at the economic indicators that this market is sending.

If you look at the indicators of a strong economy you have high demand & supply with stable financial institutions lending to business to allow them to expand for further demand & meet it with more supply.

This means jobs on many fronts & everyone including the banks are making money.

With the banking sector so severely broken as it is now, we are seeing businesses folding across the board.

This is not just about housing & bad home loans.

What is core to this economy is the impact those bad loans had on the financial sector.

Thousands of banks across the world bought into the MBS`s & when they went down it left those banks holding nothing but bad paper.
This meant that those banks had to "write down" those loans & investments.

You need to watch the PBS program "Inside The Meltdown" it was on earlier here in Vancouver.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/meltdown/view/

Also, I posted about it when it premiered here:
https://perb.cc/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=102757

Hundreds of banks have folded due to this, try reading this article:

http://www.wikinvest.com/wiki/Mortgage-Backed_Securities_(MBS)


For the rise in the price of Gold let`s all read what Leeb wrote:
http://www.nysun.com/business/2500-an-ounce-gold-coming-soon-adviser-says/31847/

From Game Over:
In these extraordinarily uncertain economic times, bestselling author Dr. Stephen Leeb has very carefully analyzed some of the basic and fundamental flaws of our economy, and his arguments are both compelling and frightening.

Yes, we already know that we are in desperate need of finding alternative sources of energy, but what Leeb details is just how close we really are to running out of oil, and that popular alternative plans such as wind power, solar power, ethanol, nuclear energy, and so on just aren`t going to serve as the immediate answers.

Leeb makes it abundantly clear that the clock is ticking....and it`s time to wake up.

When Stephen Leeb wrote the national bestseller THE COMING ECONOMIC COLLAPSE a few years ago, he predicted that the price of oil would quickly soar past $100 a barrel and push the price of gas at the pump to $4.00 a gallon. At the time of that book`s publication, gas cost $2.50 and oil was around $65 a barrel.

Now -- in the most dramatic and most important book that Leeb has written to date -- he shows how the combination of several key factors -- including inflation, the every weakening dollar, the soaring price of oil, increasing competition from China and India, and our runaway national debt - are going to make for a very rocky road for Americans in the next few years.

The good news is that Leeb provides some key and valuable information as to how smart investors can survive. Is gold still the answer? What stocks will actually thrive in a down market? What happens to the real estate market? What professions will be the best ones to choose? All of these issues, and much more, are covered by Leeb in GAME OVER. It`s startling but mandatory reading.
:cool:
 
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FunSugarDaddy

New member
Aug 15, 2008
1,110
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You are basing what you think on what you have seen.

What you need to do is look at the economic indicators that this market is sending.

If you look at the indicators of a strong economy you have high demand & supply with stable financial institutions lending to business to allow them to expand for further demand & meet it with more supply.

This means jobs on many fronts & everyone including the banks are making money.

With the banking sector so severely broken as it is now, we are seeing businesses folding across the board.

This is not just about housing & bad home loans.

What is core to this economy is the impact those bad loans had on the financial sector.

Thousands of banks across the world baught into the MBS`s & when they went down it left those banks holding nothing but bad paper.
This meant that those banks had to "write down" those loans & investments.

You need to watch the PBS program "Inside The Meltdown" it was on earlier here in Vancouver.
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/meltdown/view/

Also, I posted about it when it premiered here:
https://perb.cc/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=102757

Hundreds of banks have folded due to this, try reading this article:

http://www.wikinvest.com/wiki/Mortgage-Backed_Securities_(MBS)


For the rise in the price of Gold let`s all read what Leeb wrote:
http://www.nysun.com/business/2500-an-ounce-gold-coming-soon-adviser-says/31847/

From Game Over:

:cool:
So you`re basically just saying screw whatever empirical evidence exists and just blindly believe what Leeb and others say?

And did you happen to notice the date on that article. I`ll refresh your memory it was April `06. and gold is no where near 1500-2500 an oz like he predicted.

This is what he said:

Recently, though, he fired off a shocker to subscribers of his New York-based monthly newsletter, the Complete Investor, predicting a possible explosion in the gold price to between $1,500 and $2,500 an ounce. No, not in the next 10 to 20 years but, would you believe, in just 12 to 24 months?


And that`s your basis of support??? A guy who is proven to be completely wrong???? Gold didn`t go up anywhere near 1500-2500 in this 24 month period..hell it went down last year.

GOOD GOD..MAN PLEASE TELL ME THERE`S MORE TO YOUR THEORIES AND PREDICTIONS THAN THAT?

Humour me and explain why gold hasn`t gone up in these turbulant times. Don`t just reference me links. I`ve been watching CNN, BNN, and reading the Economist daily.
Hell I`ve even seen Leeb on CNN as part of a panel, but none of these explains or answers my specific question.

What economic indicators do I need to look at to correlate anything with the movement of gold. Be specific..telling me I need to look at the indicators is basically telling me you don`t even understand what you`re posting.

What indicators would those be?

The rise in unemployment, the decrease in consumer confidence, the drastic drop in various stock markets, The drop in housing prices, The flight to safety in towards US treasuries, the IMF bailing out some eastern European governments, the collapse of the Iceland banking system, the bail out of the auto industry, the US and China`s financial stimulus programs, the drastic rise in deficits and debt of the G20 what??

It seems to me virtually everything you`ve posted should theoritically explain why gold should have risen. It didn`t. The fundamental question is why didn`t it?
 
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trackstar

Swollen Member
Jun 26, 2004
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Look, I have a degree in economics...


It seems to me virtually everything you've posted should theoricially explain why gold should have risen. It didn't. I fundament question is why didn't it?
Are you sure that it's not a degree in English? :p
 

Krustee

Banned
Nov 9, 2007
1,567
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So you're basically just saying screw whatever empirical evidence exists and just blindly believe what Leeb and others say?

And did you happen to notice the date on that article. I'll refresh your memory it was April '06. and gold is no where near 1500-2500 an oz like he predicted.

This is what he said:

Recently, though, he fired off a shocker to subscribers of his New York-based monthly newsletter, the Complete Investor, predicting a possible explosion in the gold price to between $1,500 and $2,500 an ounce. No, not in the next 10 to 20 years but, would you believe, in just 12 to 24 months?


And that's your basis of support??? A guy who is proven to be completely wrong???? Gold didn't go up anywhere near 1500-2500 in this 24 month period..hell it went down last year.

GOOD GOD..MAN PLEASE TELL ME THERE'S MORE TO YOUR THEORIES AND PREDICTIONS THAN THAT?

Humour me and explain why gold hasn't gone up in these turbulant times. Don't just reference me links. I've been watching CNN, BNN, and reading the Economist daily.
Hell I've even seen Leeb on CNN as part of a panel, but none of these explains or answers my specific question.

What economic indicators do I need to look at to correlate anything with the movement of gold. Be specific..telling me I need to look at the indicators is basically telling me you don't even understand what you're posting.

What indicators would those be?

The rise in unemployment, the decrease in consumer confidence, the drastic drop in various stock markets, The drop in housing prices, The flight to safety in towards US treasuries, the IMF bailing out some eastern European governments, the collapse of the Iceland banking system, the bail out of the auto industry, the US and China's financial stimulus programs, the drastic rise in deficits and debt of the G20 what??
Your obvious lack of insight is what keeps you from understanding.

First off let me address your attitude which reminds me of my 8 year old nephew.

Debating with you is less rewarding than if I was debating an 8 year old because the child at least has an excuse for his naivety.

Leeb is not God so if things do not pan out the way he predicted down to the last iota I don't sweat it.

He makes a very good observation about the relation gold has to other commodities & that is what I gleaned from it.

Yes, it was written in 2006, but what you fail to give credit for is the correlation Leeb identifies with the price of oil.
Leeb shows that the historical average price of gold is 18x the price of oil.

Leeb was right about the price of oil & I personally think that it is just a matter of time before we see gold rise above $1000/oz.

I also think the price of oil will rebound but OPEC did pull a fast one recently & collectively decided to lower oil prices to spur demand & stave off further & more urgent investment into alternative energy & vehicles.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601072&sid=aFyZnv44cjx8

This was a deliberate move on part of OPEC to stimulate more demand.
Leo Drollas, deputy director of the Centre for Global Energy Studies in London, said the cartel had become a bystander like everyone else in the face of economic forces much stronger than itself.

"Opec is running up an escalator the wrong way with these attempts to cut output to force up prices. Global demand for oil is falling so fast that there is little it can do. And even if it does make even more sizeable cuts in future that could push oil up to $75 a barrel, it would be counter-productive as it would just reduce demand," he said.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2008/dec/18/oil-oilandgascompanies
I noticed you conveniently chose not to post this from that article:
"Our economy is approaching a key inflection point where rising oil prices finally will bring on inflation. And that will be manna for gold."
We have not seen much inflation yet due to this economy but I can assure you I am preparing for huge inflation in the next 1-2 years.

You, however, can do whatever makes your toes curl.
:rolleyes:

Here's the 1 year historical price of gold:


I think you will see it rise when oil rises again.

It seems to me virtually everything you've posted should theoritically explain why gold should have risen. It didn't. The fundamental question is why didn't it?
If you cannot understand why it did not go up over $1100 after reading what I posted above you are truly hopeless.
Ultimately you will believe what you believe regardless of what I or anybody else says.

That is empirical evidence we have seen from your posting on here.

:rolleyes:
Look, I have a degree in economics...

Are you sure that it's not a degree in English? :p
I notice that conveniently disappeared??

:confused:
 
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