Do you believe polls showing a win for trudeau liberals?

[Probyn]

Do you believe polls showing a win for trudeau liberals?

 

[sdw]

Do you believe polls showing a win for trudeau liberals?

You have to remember that in 2011 people said the "Orange Crush" wasn't really happening and that the Harper Conservatives couldn't get a majority.

If you look into the public polling company's archives, they don't seem to have archived the April 2011 or May 1 2011 polling. The only public polling company to have archived their April 2011 and May 1 2011 polling is EKOS. However, they were predicting a Harper minority. No public pollster anticipated the collapse of the Liberal and Bloc vote.

Now we look at the polling for this election. The Conservatives aren't out of it, the Liberals aren't safely ahead enough and I think the pollsters are mistaken in their read of how much support the Bloc has.

This election can still produce a Liberal minority, a Conservative minority or even a NDP minority. I think that the Conservatives and NDP don't have the support for a majority, but, there are still a lot of undecided and a lot of the excited Liberal support is in the 18 - 34 year old age group that tends not to vote.

Maybe the next few days will refine the polling - or - more likely, many people will be surprised on October 19th.

 

[hornygandalf]

I think there is potential for surprises in the election if there is too much dependence on past election trends. I have the sense that there may be people voting this time that don't normally, and possibly some Conservative voters who always vote, but might just sit on their hands this time around. Lets say that I suspect the margin of error on the polls are probably a bit larger this time.

 

[bcneil]

The math behind polling is very sound. But polling can't really take into account a few things. Its a moving target....so a poll is really telling you want would have happened if the election was held the day of the poll.
They also don't account for turnout. For instance a low voter turnout greatly favours the cons.....a very high turnout will favour the Liberals. Its also possible the NDP supporters could see they will come third and jump to the Liberals as the lessor of two evils.
But if I were a betting man I would bet on Liberal minority with around 140 seats

 

[Tugela]

I would guess a Liberal minority.

One thing to remember is that NDP and Conservative support tends to be heavily concentrated in certain areas, so in order for them to do well nationally they need a higher % support than the Liberals might. Even small drops in overall support would hit them hard. The downside for the Liberals is that not having a heartland of dependable safe seats means that they could lose big just as easily as they could win big, depending on how individual races play out.

Historically, the results for the winning parties are as follows:

2011: Cons - 39.6%
2008: Cons - 37.6% (minority)
2006: Cons - 36.3% (minority)
2004: Lib - 36.7% (minority)
2000: Lib - 40.8%
1997: Lib - 38.5%
1993: Lib - 41.2%
1988: PC - 43.0%
1984: PC - 50.0%

The threshold for a majority government is about 38% of the popular vote. Getting around 36% will likely put a party safely in position to form a minority government. The latest polls have the Liberals at around that level, so they would have to be the favorites.

 

[apl16]

Trudeau's buddy telling the oil companies where to send their cheques had to resign. Liberal is con light. Same old corruption from the past.

 

[wilde]

Memo to Harper: having Doug Ford, a drug and alcohol abuser, to host a fundraiser for you may not be the greatest idea in the world. When you are then called out on it repeatedly by reporters and you stick to your scripted non-answers, it just make your already wooden image approaching robot territory.

 

[hornygandalf]

Memo to Harper: having Doug Ford, a drug and alcohol abuser, to host a fundraiser for you may not be the greatest idea in the world. When you are then called out on it repeatedly by reporters and you stick to your scripted non-answers, it just make your already wooden image approaching robot territory.

I think the Cons are totally ambivalent as to what the average Canadian or voter thinks. They have calculated what their support base is and is focused on them, and letting the opposition fight it our and split the vote. They are relying on their support base getting out and sowing misinformation and distrust through the rest of the electorate through very heavy advertising and in some instances, making it confusing for people to know where to vote. Cons don't take part in public events or polls for their stance on election issues. In a normally functioning democracy this behaviour would be bizarre, but in Canada they seem to believe it is all they need to do to win. I would have liked to have seen the poll for this thread worded differently... as there is a difference between a majority win (which I don't think Liberals will achieve) and a minority win (which is very possible). Unfortunately, I generally see Liberals as a lite form of Cons, though some of their positions this time round places them to the left of the NDP. There could be some surprises in the outcome of this election.

 

[sdw]

I think the Cons are totally ambivalent as to what the average Canadian or voter thinks. They have calculated what their support base is and is focused on them, and letting the opposition fight it our and split the vote. The are relying on their support base getting out and sowing misinformation and distrust through the rest of the electorate through very heavy advertising and in some instances, making it confusing for people to know where to vote. Cons don't take part in public events or polls for their stance on election issues. In a normally functioning democracy this behaviour would be bizarre, but in Canada they seem to believe it is all they need to do to win. I would have liked to have seen the poll for this thread worded differently... as there is a difference between a majority win (which I don't think Liberals will achieve) and a minority win (which is very possible). Unfortunately, I generally see Liberals as a lite form of Cons, though some of their positions this time round places them to the left of the NDP. There could be some surprises in the outcome of this election.

The Conservatives would have to do something really obscene to have most of the Canadian Public notice. They're like the school bully, bad behavior is expected.

The Liberals, on the other hand, have lost support because of who their co-chair worked for. The NDP lost support weeks ago because Thomas Mulcair was silly enough to ask Justin Trudeau "what's your number?"

If the politician is Conservative, it's difficult for them to do or say anything that would diminish the public's view of them. Rob and Doug Ford are both still popular.

If the politician is Green, Liberal or NDP - the left leaning voter has alternatives.

 

[Jump Jack Flash]

Christy Clark pulled off the mother of all comebacks during the last BC election. Interesting to see how Quebec and BC vote.

 

[hornygandalf]

The Conservatives would have to do something really obscene to have most of the Canadian Public notice. They're like the school bully, bad behavior is expected.

Which is why I said that a normally functioning democracy their behaviour would be bizarre. In Canada it appears that individual candidates can be totally disengaged from the process, effectively not participate, ignore the wishes of the majority of the population, and yet the party is still seen as having a chance of winning.
It is a broken system that they are able to take advantage of and basically treat Canadian voters with contempt.

 

[Tugela]

Christy Clark pulled off the mother of all comebacks during the last BC election. Interesting to see how Quebec and BC vote.

I doubt the Cons will be able to do the same. Their numbers are too low, and more importantly, their ceiling (voters who consider them to be the second choice) is not much better, meaning they don't have much leeway to improve their numbers.

The Liberals have by far the highest ceiling, so they have much more wriggle room. If people opt to go with their second choice because they think their first choice might not make it, the Liberals could end up with a solid majority government. The NDP could as well (their ceiling is high enough that they could get a majority in an extreme case), but they would require people to think that the Liberals will fail in the election, and that isn't very likely.

So the likely outcome is a Liberal minority government, with a chance for a majority. The Cons don't stand much chance at all, while the NDP are outsiders for a minority government.

 

[hornygandalf]

From what I have been reading about polling, it sounds like it has become increasingly challenging for the polling firms to get a sample they can be confident is a truly representative of likely voters in the coming election. Phone polls are becoming increasingly skewed as people drop their landlines and rely on mobiles. Internet polling reaches certain demographics, but not others. Numbers in the polls may not accurately reflect the actual voters. I think there is a lot of room for significant deviation from what the polls are saying.

 

[sdw]

Which is why I said that a normally functioning democracy their behaviour would be bizarre. In Canada it appears that individual candidates can be totally disengaged from the process, effectively not participate, ignore the wishes of the majority of the population, and yet the party is still seen as having a chance of winning.
It is a broken system that they are able to take advantage of and basically treat Canadian voters with contempt.

It seems to me that politicians in democratic nations always treat the average citizen with contempt. A few years ago the USA had the sex scandal where politicians from the house and senate were treating interns as sex toys. It wasn't just Clinton, it was one of the "Perks" of being elected to the house or senate.

We in Canada have had the Liberals "re-allocate" public money in a large way, the NDP pull off their scam with offices and the scam that the Canadian Senate was and continues to be. Duffy is only a small part of the organized "re-allocation" of public money that the senate considers to be their right.

International organizations are just as guilty. The guy in charge of the IMF thought it was his right to rape a cleaning lady in his hotel. TV hosts and Movie stars regularly rape the women they come into contact with.

Once a person is on the "Very Important Person" gravy train, every little deviant desire seems to become a "Right".

People behaving badly IS the normal with politicians and their privileged supporters.

 

[sdw]

I think that people may have the demographic that uses Cellphones wrong. Young people usually answer their cellphone. You can't have a conversation with my niece because she answers her phone. So the pollster is probably able to get through to them. People that work on the go don't always answer their cellphone. When I'm driving, I only use the hands free function my car offers if I actually want to talk to the caller. Otherwise I tap the phone button twice and the call goes away.

So, if you are an agent for real estate, a supply company, a financial company and live on your cellphone - who are you likely to support? Is there going to be a bias towards one political party over another? Is who we "Know" is difficult to get on their cellphone correct?

I also "Call Screen" at home. If the number that phones me is UNKNOWN, there is no possibility that I will answer the phone. Nobody else in the house will answer an UNKNOWN caller. Life is too short to listen to the Microsoft repair man, the Air Canada special offer or the Google special placement person. The person that owns this house has every phone line on the national no call list and regularly complains if a tel-marketer phones.

I think that pollsters are going to have to go back to knocking on doors if they want an accurate picture of what is happening. Phones allow annoying people to hide safely far away, which is why people are getting pretty good at screening who is allowed to waste their time. And a modern home phone allows you to "prune" who can even ring your phone once you know their number.

 

[sdw]

Today's new polls include a couple of polls that asked if the person had already voted. The Conservatives have a slight advantage, the Liberals are close behind and the NDP is far back.

The good news for the Liberals is that the usually Conservative age groups 55 - 64 and 65+ are improving for the Liberals.

The bad news for the Liberals is that the Lobbyist Scandal with Liberal Co-Chair Gan Gagnier has caused a pull back in the growth of the Liberal's support. It is a major blow to Justin Trudeau's campaign.

The other bad news for the Liberals is that PostMedia Group is endorsing the Harper Conservatives in their newspaper's editorials.

This sort of thing is, of course, why it shouldn't be legal for a single corporation to own all of the media outlets. Anyway, here are links to what PostMedia's head office had each newspaper publish.
http://blogs.theprovince.com/2015/1...rper-is-still-the-best-choice-to-lead-canada/
http://www.vancouversun.com/opinion...e+economy/11441448/story.html?__lsa=1e5c-350b
http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/kelly-mcparland-the-case-for-re-electing-stephen-harper

wikipedia has a list of endorsements for this election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newspaper_endorsements_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015

Here are today's polls
http://angusreid.org/election-2015-liberals-edge-conservatives-heading-into-last-campaign-weekend/
http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/10/stalemate-continues/
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2412/leading-or-tied-everywhere-but-alberta
http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151015 Ballot TrackingE.pdf

What could work against the Conservatives is that Canada is being sued by Boone Pickens for choosing a Canadian company over his company in a wind farm deal. http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/10/16/t-boone-pickens-ontario-lawsuit-nafta_n_8313942.html

This is directly applicable to the new TPP treaty where we only have hints of it's content. Imagine Canada Post replacing it's fleet and having to choose Toyota over vehicles built in Canada.

I now think that whatever government we elect on October 19th will be a minority government. Most likely a Conservative minority followed closely by the Liberals, then the Bloc and then the NDP. The Greens won't elect anyone.

 

[westwoody]

Imagine Canada Post replacing it's fleet and having to choose Toyota over vehicles built in Canada.

Imagine having to go to a private hospital in an ambulance owned by a foreign private ambulance service. That keeps costs down by low wages and reduced vehicle maintenance. After the private fire department failed to show up and your house burned down.

Who knows what is in that TPP? We just have to trust that good old uncle Stevie will do what is best for us. As if.

 

[Tugela]

Today's new polls include a couple of polls that asked if the person had already voted. The Conservatives have a slight advantage, the Liberals are close behind and the NDP is far back.

The good news for the Liberals is that the usually Conservative age groups 55 - 64 and 65+ are improving for the Liberals.

The bad news for the Liberals is that the Lobbyist Scandal with Liberal Co-Chair Gan Gagnier has caused a pull back in the growth of the Liberal's support. It is a major blow to Justin Trudeau's campaign.

The other bad news for the Liberals is that PostMedia Group is endorsing the Harper Conservatives in their newspaper's editorials.

This sort of thing is, of course, why it shouldn't be legal for a single corporation to own all of the media outlets. Anyway, here are links to what PostMedia's head office had each newspaper publish.
http://blogs.theprovince.com/2015/1...rper-is-still-the-best-choice-to-lead-canada/
http://www.vancouversun.com/opinion...e+economy/11441448/story.html?__lsa=1e5c-350b
http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/kelly-mcparland-the-case-for-re-electing-stephen-harper

wikipedia has a list of endorsements for this election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newspaper_endorsements_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015

Here are today's polls
http://angusreid.org/election-2015-liberals-edge-conservatives-heading-into-last-campaign-weekend/
http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2015/10/stalemate-continues/
http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2412/leading-or-tied-everywhere-but-alberta
http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/20151015 Ballot TrackingE.pdf

What could work against the Conservatives is that Canada is being sued by Boone Pickens for choosing a Canadian company over his company in a wind farm deal. http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2015/10/16/t-boone-pickens-ontario-lawsuit-nafta_n_8313942.html

This is directly applicable to the new TPP treaty where we only have hints of it's content. Imagine Canada Post replacing it's fleet and having to choose Toyota over vehicles built in Canada.

I now think that whatever government we elect on October 19th will be a minority government. Most likely a Conservative minority followed closely by the Liberals, then the Bloc and then the NDP. The Greens won't elect anyone.

You can't draw conclusions from individual data points on those polls, because the sample size is quite small. Instead you need to look at the overall trends over a period of time, as well as all of the results combined. The Liberals have a pretty clear and sustained lead over the last few weeks, that isn't going to change.

The Cons will not have enough votes for a minority government with 30-31% of the vote, that is not enough. They are losing by big margins relative to the last election in every province other than Alberta. Alberta is holding up their national numbers, but since most of those were safe seats anyway, it isn't going to help them elsewhere.

 

[sdw]

You can't draw conclusions from individual data points on those polls, because the sample size is quite small. Instead you need to look at the overall trends over a period of time, as well as all of the results combined. The Liberals have a pretty clear and sustained lead over the last few weeks, that isn't going to change.

The Cons will not have enough votes for a minority government with 30-31% of the vote, that is not enough. They are losing by big margins relative to the last election in every province other than Alberta. Alberta is holding up their national numbers, but since most of those were safe seats anyway, it isn't going to help them elsewhere.

The Liberals had a statistically significant lead for 6 days, now they have dropped back into the tie with the Conservatives when the margin of error is allowed for. If the loss of support had been only reported by one pollster, it could be sample error. When the loss of support is reported by more than one pollster, it means that something is happening.

The Conservatives can't attain majority government because they are going to lose seats in the GTA. However, the Conservatives most likely will have the most MPs elected of the three main parties. Can anyone say "Federal Election in January or February 2016"? Harper will have to have a Throne Speech and present a budget. He's not going to be allowed to prorogue the house this time.

 

[sybian]

So from what I've read here, you guys are saying there is an election being held soon?