Asian Fever

Russia vs. the World, part whatever....

sdw

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Putin is making a huge bet that the threats by the USA are of the same quality of the threats against Syria, etc. Now Putin has gone outside of the Crimea, which supports him, and taken over a village that has the manifolds and pumping station for part of the Natural Gas pipeline network.

I think that Putin is going to grab East Ukraine and Odessa. He doesn't appear to be worried about the USA or NATO and with his veto, he doesn't have to worry about the UN authorizing force against him.

I think it's also clear that he's not worried about Germany, etc not buying his Natural Gas and Oil. His friends to the East will buy all that becomes available. Apparently, China has agreed to buy 300% of the Oil they are currently buying from Russia and provide 5 Billion towards additional Natural Gas Pipelines into China.

http://news.nationalpost.com/2014/0...-control-of-ukrainian-village-outside-crimea/

Russian forces — backed by helicopter gunships — take control of Ukrainian village outside Crimea
Mike Eckel and Jim Heintz, Associated Press | March 15, 2014 4:32 PM ET
SIMFEROPOL, Ukraine — Russian forces backed by helicopter gunships and armored vehicles Saturday took control of a village near the border with Crimea on the eve of a referendum on whether the region should seek annexation by Moscow, Ukrainian officials said.

The action in Strilkove appeared to be the first move outside Crimea, where Russian forces have been in effective control since late last month. There were no reports of gunfire or injuries. The incident raises tensions already at a high level before Sunday’s referendum.

In a statement, the Foreign Ministry denounced the foray outside Crimea, and said Ukraine “reserves the right to use all necessary measures to stop the military invasion by Russia.”

The village is on a long spit reaching northward from the main part of the Black Sea peninsula, about 10 kilometers (six miles) north of the border between Crimea and the Kherson region.
A spokesman for the Ukrainian border guard service, Oleg Slobodyan, told The Associated Press the Russians, about 120 in all, took control of a natural gas distribution station in the village. The Foreign Ministry said the force consisted of about 80 and didn’t mention the station, but said the village was seized.

As Crimea prepares for Sunday’s referendum, dozens of billboards throughout the regional capital proclaim “Together With Russia.” But a few have been hit by spray-painters who scrawled out “Russia” and replaced it with “Ukraine.”

The referendum is denounced by Kyiv and the West as illegitimate; the West is threatening costly sanctions against Russia if it moves to incorporate Crimea. But the result is seen as a foregone conclusion — Crimea is almost certain to vote to split off, further aggravating Ukraine’s political crisis and one of the harshest East-West confrontations since the end of the Cold war. . . .
 
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sdw

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WOW, Russia just keeps upping the ante. They've brought down a US Drone.

http://mashable.com/2014/03/14/russia-grounded-u-s-drone/

U.S. Drone Intercepted 12,000 Feet Above Crimea: Russian Report

By Colin Daileda1 day ago

A U.S. attack drone was intercepted in the sky over Ukraine's Crimea region on Friday, according to Russian state-owned holding company Rostec. The drone was reportedly about 12,000 feet in the air when someone broke the link between the drone and its operator, causing it to perform an emergency landing.

The report is unconfirmed, but Voice of Russia reports that the drone appeared to be "part of the 66th U.S. brigade of military intelligence with the main location in Bavaria," which is what Rostec allegedly determined from the writing on the side of the drone. Rostec is a science and technology company owned by the Russian government, and part of its focus is on aviation research. It also works with various organizations — not just Russian ones — that build various aircrafts. . . .
 

Horse99

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Good, I'm glad they brought down a drone...if that was a manned aircraft, it would have been an act of war.....it's a very provocative action, what does the USA think Russia is going to do about it? turn the other cheek?
 

sdw

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Crimea Referendum - 93% in favor of becoming part of Russia

There wasn't really any question that a military complex inhabited by military people was going to vote to be with the people that can afford to pay them. Even the civilian population that relies on the military bases probably voted to join Russia.
 

CJ Tylers

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And the 7% that voted against will be jailed or just "vanish" for being noted dissidents of the state. Democracy rules.
 

Thatotherguy

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Crimea Referendum - 93% in favor of becoming part of Russia.
Reminds me of the Austrian vote to join with Germany. The one after the Nazis were already there, I mean...

Having said that, I wouldn't be at all surprised if the majority of the Crimean population actually is in favour of becoming part of Russia. There's no way the actual number is 93%, but it seems highly likely that it's well above 50%. The majority of the population share ethnicity with Russians, the Russian military is a huge part of the local economy, Russia is more powerful and politically stable than Ukraine, and it wasn't all that long ago that they were part of the same nation anyway.
 

Tugela

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It is obvious the "referendum" was fixed. Like I said before in an earlier post, Russia today is a neo fascist state, so the result is not surprising. The only thing that surprises me is that, just like the Nazis, they are making no effort to make it the least bit plausible with a closer result. But that is the problem with fascists.....they can't imagine that their "people" might not be 100% in support of them.
 

sdw

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Latest report is that 95.7% of Crimea voters voted to join Russia. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26607466

Putin is pretty confident that the US is unable to go to war for Ukraine. Sanctions are meaningless because Putin has a very willing customer for all of Russia's Oil and Natural Gas.

Perhaps if Obama and Western leaders hadn't allowed the Syrian situation to go on for 4 years, Putin might be a little less confident that his only risk is an excess of hot air.

I still think that Putin and Obama will be meeting in Yalta to sign a treaty for "Peace in our time". That will probably be after Putin has stripped Ukraine of Odessa and South Eastern Ukraine.
 

Tugela

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Latest report is that 95.7% of Crimea voters voted to join Russia. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26607466

Putin is pretty confident that the US is unable to go to war for Ukraine. Sanctions are meaningless because Putin has a very willing customer for all of Russia's Oil and Natural Gas.

Perhaps if Obama and Western leaders hadn't allowed the Syrian situation to go on for 4 years, Putin might be a little less confident that his only risk is an excess of hot air.

I still think that Putin and Obama will be meeting in Yalta to sign a treaty for "Peace in our time". That will probably be after Putin has stripped Ukraine of Odessa and South Eastern Ukraine.
That is a short term view. What will really happen is that most of the states along Putin's borders will start heavily investing in their military, which in turn will force Russia to put more and more of their GDP there as well. Whereas before he might have had neutral states on his borders, now he will have hostile ones. Russia will find itself in the same situation that the Soviet Union did, when the cold war bled it dry.
 

summerbreeze

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he is really smart, attacking that village in the Ukraine gives him and the US something for him to give up and still leave him with Crimea

US will claim they stopped him (political victory) the grab was small enough it is unlikely to trigger all out war

he will claim the referendum speaks for itself, US will claim they don't recognize it (political stalemate)

US needs Putin for upcoming resolutions in Syria and Iran

Putin can fend off the hardliners in his country and the military by grabbing Crimea and protecting their Naval base there

can't agree with the methods but he has played this one very shrewdly
 

sdw

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CJ Tylers

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very true... violent reprisal can only come via unaffiliated and unacknowledged/disavowed resources... now, where is the A-Team when you need them?
 

sdw

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And Putin was full of hot air over US attacks on Libya & Yemen for exactly the same reason - nothing can happen between great powers. A century ago, heck 60 years ago, when great powers fought, only tens of millions of people died. The price is far steeper in the nuclear age. Great powers can no longer choose to fight.

So the west will provide such arms-length help to Ukraine as they can, just as the Americans did to the Afghans when they fought the Russians in the 80's and 90's. But if shots are exchanged between Russians and Americans, that would be a failure on the part of the Americans because what do they do then, when American soldiers have died? There is no acceptable path forward from such an eventuality. So only an idiot would put the USA in that situation in the first place.
lol, America really "Won" when they trained Al Queda to be better terrorists. And when the Americans invaded Afghanistan, they discovered that the Stinger missiles that they had provided Al Queda to use on the Russians still worked.

I haven't seen a "regime change" that the Americans supported publicly and covertly work out to their advantage. Afghanistan = FAIL, Iraq = FAIL, Egypt = FAIL, Libya = FAIL, Sudan = FAIL, Ukraine, well that doesn't appear to be going well. And yes, Ukraine - according to documents released by Snowden - is a covert American attempt at regime change. http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/ukraine-the-front-line-of-a-new-cold-war-1.1294814
 

summerbreeze

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Current wars are economic,

Regan's star wars i.e. out spend the Soviets and forced them to bring in Yeltsin and Gorbachev as leaders. (the only politburo members with university education) they dismantled the Soviet empire and installed democracies because the only way they could control the satellite countries was with cheap oil. Problem was they were running out of oil and perestroika the reforming of the communist party the only sustainable solution.

Economics will win out again, Russia has a really big problem which is that it is almost land locked. Only ports are in the Arctic, North Pacific, and Black Sea. It is inconceivable they could ever allow the Black Sea ports to be blockaded. It would cripple their economy so they require the Black Sea naval bases.

Imagine that because their road system basically leads to Moscow from everywhere in the country, that imports landing on the east coast (north pacific ports) have to go by rail almost 5,000 miles to Moscow and then to where ever in Russia. Infrastructure is terrible.

If a non-cooperative government staged a coup in Panama and the flow of goods through the canal was potentially threatened. The US would take over the country immediately and then negotiate. They consider the canal an essential trade route enabling the American way of life and would not tolerate anything with the potential to effect it.

Russia has the same issue and has extended this boldness beyond what they probably should have but that is their style. They will ensure the port and shipping sustainability which the west understands and will concede. The leadership will look good to the Russian people and the hawks in their military, and they may influence the other countries around them to their favor. You can see why they went for it.

Current world politics require that the US and Russia work together over Syria and Iran so the Russians or Putin can get away with it. It will cost them of course but the Ukrainians should have seen this coming and if they wanted to stage a coup with their own government such as we have just seen, it would have been smart for them to immediately begin favorable negotiations with Russia regarding naval bases and trade route stability.

World politics is a self interest game......
 

Thatotherguy

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Who said anything about winning or losing? And in the long term, every war has been a loss on each side.
Historically that's simply not true. If you were to slightly rephrase it, though, and say "in the long term every modern war has been a loss on each side" then you've got a valid point (and I rather suspect that's what you meant anyway).
 

agentman

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Apr 30, 2005
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Well this is one way of dealing with Putin with a little help from Liam Neeson. ;)


[video]http://www.slapyourselfcomedy.com/snl-obama-ukraine-address/[/video]
 

1nitestan

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Once again, The Onion pretty much nails it...

http://www.theonion.com/articles/thanks-for-being-so-cool-about-everything,35584/

As you know, the last few weeks have been kind of crazy around here. Last month, protests in Ukraine ousted the country’s Kremlin-allied president and ignited a wave of Ukrainian nationalism that threatened to destabilize Russia’s economic and military interests in the region. Of course, I couldn’t simply stand by and let that happen, so I intervened and ordered a forceful takeover of the strategically important peninsula of Crimea—a territory with historical ties to Russia that our nation had long desired. It’s certainly no easy task to forcefully annex an entire province against another country’s will, so I just wanted to thank you—the government of the United States, the nations of western Europe, and really the entire world population as a whole—for being super cool about all of this.

Seriously, you guys have been amazing. All of you. I really appreciate it.

To be honest, I was really dreading a whole big fight over this thing. When you first condemned the seizure of Crimea as patently illegal and in breach of the Ukrainian constitution—which it absolutely was, by the way—I feared for the worst. But then everybody stopped short of doing anything to actually prevent what was essentially a state-sponsored landgrab, and I just thought, “Wow, these guys are a pretty laid-back and easygoing bunch!” It really was a huge load off when you let everything slide like that.

Believe me, I know it must have been hard to stand idly by and do nothing as a foreign military invaded one of your allies, or just sit back and watch while we set up a complete farce of a referendum—a referendum supervised by heavily armed members of the Russian military, mind you—and used it as grounds for backdoor annexation. It also couldn’t have been easy to keep your cool when we sent commandos to raid the Ukrainian naval headquarters in Crimea. But you didn’t really make much of a fuss over any of it, and I couldn’t be more grateful for that. It made my job way, way easier.

I totally owe you one, no question about that.

Now, of course I get that you in the international community had to issue some sort of response. After all, you had to at least look like you were trying to fight for the people of Ukraine as we rolled armed vehicles into their country, made it clear that any dissent would be punished, and essentially rendered an entire people totally and utterly powerless in the face of a bigger, stronger country’s national interests. I totally get that. But I’m just relieved that you decided on a response as harmless as humanly possible, with no real and tangible repercussions on myself or my government. You really have no idea how much stress that lifted off my shoulders. It was a real lifesaver.

I also understand that moving forward, you’ll feel pressure to call a lot of high-profile NATO meetings, make statements to the UN, suspend this summer’s G8 summit, that sort of thing. I also get that all that kind of stuff is just a formal procedure you have to follow, because really, at this point you’ve laid your cards on the table. So I just want to thank you ahead of time—honestly, from the bottom of my heart—for ensuring that I can just concentrate on doing whatever I want in any formerly Soviet region that is of geopolitical, military, or economic value to Russia without having to worry one iota about suffering any consequences. Thanks for making that 100-percent clear to me.

There is one thing I want to say though, and I feel a little silly admitting this, but there was actually a moment earlier when I did feel a little dread. For one unnerving second there, I thought you imposed sanctions on Russia’s broad national economy, but then I saw the sanctions were just directed at a few of my advisers and some bank I don’t care about. Boy, talk about a major relief!

Really, this whole thing has gone so smoothly that my only real regret is that I just wish I had known earlier that you guys were this mellow about hostile military takeovers. It makes me wonder what took me so long to get around to this.

But you know, I really shouldn’t have been surprised, given how cool you were with my longstanding record of handling opposition political groups or independent-minded journalists, all those gay rights protests that cropped up last year, or even that whole ordeal in 2004 when we tried to take over separatist regions of Georgia by force. Just knowing I’m free to do things my own way—that I can fully ignore any domestic or international laws and any basic principles of human rights—just takes away a ton of the stress involved in making these big decisions.

And, by the way, if you ever need me to play along and act like these little Crimea sanctions and rhetorical warnings are in the least bit threatening, or feign anger by instituting entry bans on U.S. lawmakers and officials, or issue a few sternly worded responses to the international community’s condemnations, I’m completely down with that. I get the back-and-forth charade we’re playing here—the one that says you’re actually considering some real action against me. Seriously, going along with that kind of ruse is the least I can do, given all you’ve done for me.

I just hope you’ll all continue being so nice and accommodating moving forward—especially with what I’ve got planned for the rest of Ukraine over the next few months.
 

sdw

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http://www.mapsofworld.com/russia/russia-railway-network-map.html

Well, the depth of you analysis has convinced me. you're right... Not.

In a nod to thatotherguy, Modern war, those in the last few thousand years or so were largely about economics. The Punic Wars were about control of Trade, as were the wars between the Roman and Persian Empires. The various medeval wars between England and France. Pretty much any European war you could name.

As for the military value / trade value of the Black Sea ports, not so much. So Russia has a fleet of warships in the Black Sea, Maybe even modernizes it and all the obsolescent naval bases. It gets them nothing. The Black Sea is a pond. It's access to the worlds' oceans is through the Bosphorus Strait that the Royal Navy, at the height of its power, could not breach against the crumbling Ottoman Empire in the Great War. It is still a strategic bottleneck and Turkey is a member of NATO. So no, holding the Crimea is not a great military advantage. As for trade, if you get along with your neighbors, you don't need to occupy their ports to get your goods out. And if you cannot get along with your neighbors, how will your ships get through the Bosphorus?

As for the Russian rail system, it isnt great out east, but it does have ties south ito central and eastern Asia out of all the major population centers. As a large land mass, tThey likely sufferfrom the same sorts of rail bottlenecks that Canada has. The question is, who are their major trading partners and where are they on the globe? I suspect that most of their bulk trade is on the Eurasian continent, or will be as China bids for a greater sharte of their commodity exports and expands its exports into the Russian market. As the demand grows, the railways and pipelines will be built, quite possibly with most of it paid for by the Chinese.

But yes, REAL POLITIKS will win out in the end and this crisis will fizzle out
The real danger to Russia is that their relationship with China will become much like Canada's relationship with the USA. However, it won't make China or Russia unhappy to have Germany sitting unemployed in the dark and cold. China's growth will go back to the 7% range and Russia will benefit from that. Because - Walmart and Target will continue to buy whatever China is willing to sell them. Apple, HP and the other tech companies will continue to build their electronics in China. What MAY stop is China buying American debt.
 
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