Economic downturn has started
- Thread starter kickback
- Start date
If by specials you mean more 35+ year old ladies popping out of the woodwork to work , then i'd agree with you.
Vancouver's real estate wasn't in a bubble. Everyone that has a mortgage had to qualify for it. The house sales may have dropped off, but real estate prices have not. Most sellers seem to have taken houses off the market rather than reduce prices to less than assessed values, with the exception of a handful who were desperate for a sale for various reasons.
Interest rates are at the lowest they have been historically. Low rates and low sales are a historical anomaly. Low rates usually trigger high sales. There isn't mass unemployment in Vancouver either.
Thanks Ray for making the point that sellers can't sell unless they lower their price below assessed value. Proves the bubble has burst and prices have to drop for sales to happen. You're right that everyone had to qualify to get a mortgage...a 40 year mortgage with 5% down and record low interest rates is fairly easy to qualify for, right? Sounds like the US in 2007 at the height of the bubble.
The market is cooked...time to put a fork in it
Wrong... in the USA market in 2005 to 2007 you could purchase a million dollar home with no money down and lie about your income. They didn't even check your income...Subprime ruined the world economy and it hasn't recovered.Thanks Ray for making the point that sellers can't sell unless they lower their price below assessed value. Proves the bubble has burst and prices have to drop for sales to happen. You're right that everyone had to qualify to get a mortgage...a 40 year mortgage with 5% down and record low interest rates is fairly easy to qualify for, right? Sounds like the US in 2007 at the height of the bubble.
The market is cooked...time to put a fork in it
And that never happened in Canada right? Tell that to the people who bought 2 years ago in Vancouver and now under water. They got 100% financing (Canadian banks have all sorts of ways of kicking back the 5% to the lender) on homes they could never afford without record low interest rates.
You can rationalize all you want but the fact remains that the housing market is cooked...IMHO
This is true...most Americans are shocked to hear that we actually have to qualify for our mortgage here! Things haven't changed that much over there since 2008...
I'll guess that 'most Americans' did not know that since 2007 Canadian banks handed out CMHC insured mortgages (those are the kind that Canadian tax payers cover if they default) to self employed individuals who reported their own incomes without audited financials. Don't be fooled by popular opinion but instead do some research and you'll be 'shocked' to learn how serious the housing crisis is in Canada.
This is probably an 'advertorial' but here's something to think about:
http://www.listfree.org/67246-thousands-of-houses-for-sale-in-vancouver-how-to-buy-one-wisely.html
And a 'dire prognosis for Canadian housing'...
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/glob...-itself-into-a-housing-crisis/article7589164/
First link is from real estate pumpers and second link quotes a US economist from last September that contradicts recent comments from Canadian economists. BMO and Manulife got slapped on the wrist last week by the Revenue Minister for trying to sneak back in lower interests rates. They're desperate and know the RE market is done.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...lls-flaherty-on-mortgage-rates/article9992119
"Not everyone in the Conservative cabinet is backing Jim Flaherty’s latest intervention in the mortgage market.
Small Business Minister Maxime Bernier says he believes the finance minister overstepped his bounds by having his office phone Manulife Financial and ask they withdraw their discount on five-year mortgages to 2.89 per cent from 3.09."
And then this:
http://www.vancouversun.com/busines...bullish+Metro+condo+market/7955341/story.html
"MPC Intelligence is predicting 2013 will be relatively flat for both sales and pricing.
“We may even see some price compression in some markets. Prices could go down or developers could start to incentivize or negotiate a little bit more to keep up a relative pace of sales,” Hancock said.
“I think developers recognize that in certain areas they’re going to have to sharpen their pencils to generate sales.”
He said he’s heard rumblings about developers postponing sales or construction until they meet their targets.
“That’s one of the things about the Metro Vancouver market that is reassuring. We have a lot of sophisticated developers that have deep pockets and who can hold their breath if they need to,” Hancock said. “You’re going to see guys who don’t need to launch product into the market; you will see them delay with no problem and control the supply.”"
And, just to make myself clear, I would be very happy to see a buyer's market return here...
The Small Business Minister has to say this as the Minister representing all the construction companies who will suffer with falling house prices and a construction slowdown (already happening now). He's posturing to off-set the comments from Flaherty so the party looks balanced.
MPC Intelligence is a real estate pumping firm.
Tough argument for you to win;the housing market in Vancouver is over and done with and it sucks for people who have over extended themselves or have put all their retirement money into their home.
Great debating with you. Let's agree to disagree and take a look again in 6 months from now...Kickback out
I like stats too, and I never said that I disagreed with kickback; what I wanted to get to were the hard numbers, which I thought he might have:
http://theeconomicanalyst.com/conte...-crumble-january-rot-worse-headlines-indicate
