Do you think we'll see a world war in our lifetime?

[jesuschrist]

Things around the world are getting tense for some reason or other. Not that these things today are going to lead to world war, but it did get me thinking.

What do you think, is it likely we'll see a world war (or a major war between leading nations), in the next 20 to 30 years?

Which nations will be the major participants?

Will it go nuclear?

 

[mercyshooter]

with what is happening in the asia pacific, it's possible.

 

[Ray]

I don't believe there will be another major world war like we've seen in the past.
Global economies are too interconnected and interdependent.

Future conflicts are going to be regional events, to settle historical wrongs, disputes over resources such as water and arable land.

There will be an increase in terrorism to undermine governments.

There will not be a nuclear war, as states will not be willing to commit national suicide. (MAD)

http://www.humansecuritygateway.com...ict_FutureTrendsandChallenges_towards2030.pdf

 

[badbadboy]

I don't like to think of such possibilities but if you look at a few scenarios, we could have local wars get very much larger.

Iran v Israel - I predict the Israeli's will eventually do a low level bombing run to take out Iran's Nuclear enrichment plants. So far they have done a job on taking out their scientists one by one.

S Korea now has the go ahead from the USA to build long range missiles to reach target deep into N Korea. N Korean may respond in kind with a new inexperienced leader.

Lingering problems in Syria with support from Russia and China will boil over to other areas eventually.

Continued problems in Iraq and Afghanistan after USA et al have left will probably leave it open to tribal wars and more fundamentalist Islamic wars.

All these problem areas and the potential for a Mitt Romney Presidency will be a disaster. He has demonstrated that he knows jack shit about what goes on outside of the USA.

 

[Devils_Advocate]

Things around the world are getting tense for some reason or other. Not that these things today are going to lead to world war, but it did get me thinking.

What do you think, is it likely we'll see a world war (or a major war between leading nations), in the next 20 to 30 years?

Which nations will be the major participants?

Will it go nuclear?

I think it is possible, mostly due to climate change but not before 2030.

Check out: Climate Wars by Gwynne Dye.

http://www.amazon.ca/Climate-Wars-Gwynne-Dyer/dp/0307355837

 

[yazoo]

I think that N Korea is a festering boil that eventually will have to be lanced. It seems like there is no resolution in sight and all those millions are living in misery, while their military continues to threaten the south.

I don't think it will be a long conflict though. With good psy-ops like Gulf War #1 they'll be defecting to cnn cameramen.

China, like the US is going through their political silly season. We'll have to see if the new leadership continues the belligerency against Vietnam, Japan, and the Phillippines. Those conflicting claims have existed for decades with China doing little.

I wonder what will happen if Russia tries to steal our Arctic. Will the US help?

If there is a WW3, I wonder where the best place would be to settle to stay out of the fray. New Zealand? South Africa? or right here at home?

 

[Sexiaccent]

When the power of love
overcome the love of power
the world will know peace.

Jimi Hendrix.

 

[Sonny]

Just to look at one potential area of conflict.

There was that silly war between Argentina and Great Britain over some meaningless rock islands, the Falklands, a few decades ago.

Could there be a war between China and Japan over even more meaningless rock islands? Possibly, but mainly due to the festering never-healed wounds China suffered at the hands of the Japanese seventy years ago.
Japan won those wars then because China was still essentially a collection of fiefdoms. Now a military and economic powerhouse, China has the upper hand.
Would Japan make and use nukes if its existence as a country be threatened? Taking out the enemy as one is going to be wiped out anyway? Maybe...
Would other world powers be able to actually do anything?
Japan is under the USA "umbrella". Would the USA follow through?
Would the Chinese call a bluff? Would the USA see an opportunity to alter the world economy?
Who would take China's side?

 

[yazoo]

Just to look at one potential area of conflict.

There was that silly war between Argentina and Great Britain over some meaningless rock islands, the Falklands, a few decades ago.

Could there be a war between China and Japan over even more meaningless rock islands? Possibly, but mainly due to the festering never-healed wounds China suffered at the hands of the Japanese seventy years ago.
Japan won those wars then because China was still essentially a collection of fiefdoms. Now a military and economic powerhouse, China has the upper hand.
Would Japan make and use nukes if its existence as a country be threatened? Taking out the enemy as one is going to be wiped out anyway? Maybe...
Would other world powers be able to actually do anything?
Japan is under the USA "umbrella". Would the USA follow through?
Would the Chinese call a bluff? Would the USA see an opportunity to alter the world economy?
Who would take China's side?

Very interesting questions. Japan is getting sick of having their nose rubbed in the WWII history. They've apologized umpteen times but China and Korea keep going back to the same well.

The new generation knows nothing of the war and doesn't want to feel humiliated anymore. They feel that the other governments are just using the issue to further their own agendas and it is time for Japan to stop cowering.

An example is the mayor of Osaka who is geared to head a third party going into the next elections. He would like to see a far more muscular foreign policy, and a strengthening of defense forces. As a populist, he's getting a lot of attention.

He probably won't win, but he will likely have the next government by the balls. Interesting times ahead.

 

[CorriGuy]

I think the 21rst century will see two major global wars. The first one will involve oil + religion. The second will involve fresh water supplies. Canada better man up or we'll get our asses kicked around 2080 or so.

 

[jesuschrist]

This BBC documentary says something really interesting about world war and how it can happen again:

Niall Ferguson is that prolific and influential Harvard Professor. His works are great.

 

[wilde]

We'll get some small regional skirmishes but no world war as most sane people know that we have enough weapons to wipe ourselves from the face of this earth.

 

[normisanas]

This BBC documentary says something really interesting about world war and how it can happen again:

Niall Ferguson is that prolific and influential Harvard Professor. His works are great.

Wow thanks for that! Super interesting indeed....

 

[wilde]

Japan won those wars then because China

was fighting a civil war (between the KMT and the commies) whilst getting invaded by the Japanese who had superior weapons.

 

[summerbreeze]

since most wars are started by dictatorships or non democratic governments, and most countries worldwide have elected governments

it is hard to believe that unless its a civil war which spills over into an escalating conflict over religion for instance, that a voting public would tolerate their government perusing full scale war

no one would want to start a major war unless they could win it, in a nuclear age, how would you win a major war?

the US and Soviets prevented a major conflict by ensuring no one could win, just 2 losers

threats of conflict though are a part of diplomacy unfortunately

 

[Elmore]

We'll get some small regional skirmishes but no world war as most sane people know that we have enough weapons to wipe ourselves from the face of this earth.

Fear of death is a solid deterrent. But there are some who are not afraid to die...in fact they are willing to die.
We'll see how long the more reckless nations in the Middle East can be kept in check before they are capable of serious damage with nuclear or chemical weapons.

 

[jesuschrist]

since most wars are started by dictatorships or non democratic governments

Really?

Most wars in the 20th century have involved the United States as the major participant, if not the one who "started" it.

 

[storm rider]

I dont see ANY nuclear armed nation starting anything as all of the countries that have
nuclear weapons pretty much know that NOBODY wins a nuclear war.

As for the middle east strife will continue there till the cow comes home.

SR

 

[yazoo]

Not true actually. Japan has done jack shit in the way of apologies. And there are plenty of Chinese and Koreans who are aware of what the Japanese did to them. It seems to be a very open sore for the Chinese.Quite rightly so, considering the lack of remorse show by the Japanese.

Please see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_war_apology_statements_issued_by_Japan

 

[uncleg]