I usually agree with your well thought out posts, however I have to disagree regarding Layton. I believe that the NDP gains were a fluke and will be short lived. I believe that the NDP seat count will return to their previous level after the next election in 4 years.Mistakes will be made both by Harper and by Layton in the next few months. Both are dealing with a situation new to them. However, they both have 4 full years until October 2015 to get it right and both are smart enough that they will get it right.
Both men are unassailable and in control of their political party. Anyone, in their political party, that doubts that needs only to look at Michael Ignatieff and Gille Duceppe to know that charismatic blowhards are the death - not the rebirth - of a political party. The ones on the fringes of both parties should expect to be ruthlessly purged if they attempt to attack from the rear ala Paul Martin in the Chretien government or Ujjal Dosanjh in the Glen Clark government. Both men are keen observers of politics and know that it's better to purge than to keep. Both Harper and Layton have enough MPs that they can afford to purge if they need to.
Searchable results are at http://enr.elections.ca/Home1.aspx
When people complain about national vote levels and the support a party received, especially the people on the left, just remember that Elizabeth May won because elections are 308 individual elections - not one national election. What Elizabeth May benefited from is a precursor to a preferential ballot form of electing an MP. She benefited by the desire of a left leaning community to make a clear statement and it should be noted that the die hard supporters of other parties didn't come to her.
I strongly believe that we should use a preferential ballot to elect MPs and that we should use direct election of the Prime Minister to elect the external face of Canada. That way, we don't have elections all the time and can have elections every 4 or 5 years. I think that our politics would become more civilized if the government can't fall because the opposition has every reason to continuously seek to topple it on baseless assertions.
Least anyone think that Canadians will support the "whiny entitled", despite massive media messaging that said she was ill treated, take a look at Helena Guergis
35085 Simcoe--Grey Simcoe--Grey preliminary préliminaires
Austin Katy NDP-New Democratic Party NPD-Nouveau Parti démocratique 11194
Cochrane Gord CAP PAC 329
Guergis Helena No Affiliation Aucune appartenance 8620
Leitch Kellie Conservative Conservateur 31784
Metheral Jace Green Party Parti Vert 3482
Smardenka Alex Liberal Libéral 8213
Vander Zaag Peter CHP Canada PHC Canada 776
It is political parties that train and support the army of people that are needed to win an election campaign. Even at the individual electoral district level, it takes a few hundred people that must know how to use the technology, what and when to do things and how to avoid having Elections Canada come down on you because you pushed too hard. Individual candidates are worth, at most, 5% of the vote. All the rest of the vote is due to the party organization.
The people in Quebec quite simply have no idea who they have elected in these fringe candidates. How you could cast a vote for a candidate vacationing in Las Vegas with absolutely no platform is bewildering to me. The Francophone's have a long track record of acting very erratically when it comes to selecting a political party. Thankfully they don't have the numbers to do any real damage to the country.
Jack Layton is now in a predicament where he has to placate the temperamental separatists while keeping his core base of English speaking voters happy. Guess which group will become quickly disillusioned and reject him?
Jack has been around for many years but has never has any real power. His role has been one of "criticize everything that the Conservatives and Liberals do". He could make ridiculous promises because he would always be the last guy in line with no accountability.
Jack incessantly badgered Stephen Harper for (in his words) Mr Harper's paranoid micro management of his MP's. Now the tables have turned and Jack has several extremely green mp's with absolutely no parliamentary experience. It will be interesting to see how much rein Jack will give these new MP's. The expression "herding cats" comes to mind.
I stand by my previous posts where I predict 2 consecutive Conservative majority's. The people of Canada are center right and are not ready for an NDP government. Their core would never allow them to move to the center.
The Liberals cannot get it together in 4 years. Who do they have in the wings as a replacement for Ignatieff? Bob(I love deficits) Rae? I would be very surprised if a NDP-Liberal merger occurred. Both parties are too ideologically different to get along.
People also need to realize that most dyed in the wool Liberals believe that they are the natural governing party of Canada. They view the Conservative majority as unnatural, and that the people must have made some sort of mistake to allow this to happen.
Stephen Harper has matured as a politician and is not likely to make the same mistakes he made early on in his political career. He also for the most part has weeded out the MP's that have previously hurt the party with their controversial comments.
Today is a good day for Canada.






