Cynics are silent

[FunSugarDaddy]

Is it just me, or has there been a noticable drop in the number of posts by doomsayers?

Things are far from perfect and unemployment rates continue to rise, but it seems to me that they are silent because it appears that the local real estate market is either leveled off, or god-forbid increasing, and the stock market has for the most part been on a tear over the last month. (ie an increase of >20% since the first week in March)

As mentioned I'm not saying all is rosey or the the stock market might not drop going forward, but the silence is deafening.

 

[Evolve]

Or have they all been banned?

 

[bruins70]

Chicken Little Krustee. the high priest of "The Sky is falling" was banned 2-3 weeks ago- hence the drop in Economic lectures and rise in civility.

 

[threepeat]

I'm one of the doomsayers, and about a month and a half ago I was going to make a post touting the values of gold, as it was flirting with its all-time high. Good thing I didn't, because I would now be eating crow.

Now that the shoe is on the other foot, I submit there's a pretty good chance that now that the bulls are having their turn saying "I was right," that's a contrarian indicator that the market's getting toppy and it's getting close to the right time to short.

Today's stock market surge is in large part because people are buying Geithner's statement that U.S. banks are actually starting to make money. Maybe someone who knows more about the subject than me can say if this is cause the US just allowed banks to mark assets to model vs. mark to market. If that's the case, this could just be fancy accounting pyrotechnics. It still baffles me why anyone would base their investment decisions on the predictions of government officials, especially the heads of the US Treasury and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Hank Paulson said a year and a half ago that the US economy was the strongest he's ever seen, and Ben Bernanke's been predicting a turnaround six months down the road pretty much since the recession started.

I think we should revisit this thread at the end of the year and see who's right.

 

[FunSugarDaddy]

Or have they all been banned?

Haha, I thought one or two of them had been banned, but if I recall correctly there was 5-6 of them I was battling. lol

 

[Evolve]

I'm one of the doomsayers, and about a month and a half ago I was going to make a post touting the values of gold, as it was flirting with its all-time high. Good thing I didn't, because I would now be eating crow.

Now that the shoe is on the other foot, I submit there's a pretty good chance that now that the bulls are having their turn saying "I was right," that's a contrarian indicator that the market's getting toppy and it's getting close to the right time to short.

I think we should revisit this thread at the end of the year and see who's right.

I think it's going to rocket up and down day after day for several more months as people dump their money in and pull it out with every little piece of bad or good news.

Round about Oct, we will start to see it edging up slowly, still with lots of ups and downs, but trending upward. The Dow will level off at around 10K after 6 months, and normal trading will pick back up about a year from now.

Over the course of the next two years the Canadian dollar will rise up to close to the value of the American dollar as the price of oil rises again.

Since no one has learned anything from all of this, we will go through it all again in a couple decades.

Just my 2 cents or 10 trillion dollars... whatever

 

[FunSugarDaddy]

I'm one of the doomsayers, and about a month and a half ago I was going to make a post touting the values of gold, as it was flirting with its all-time high. Good thing I didn't, because I would now be eating crow.

Now that the shoe is on the other foot, I submit there's a pretty good chance that now that the bulls are having their turn saying "I was right," that's a contrarian indicator that the market's getting toppy and it's getting close to the right time to short.

Today's stock market surge is in large part because people are buying Geithner's statement that U.S. banks are actually starting to make money. Maybe someone who knows more about the subject than me can say if this is cause the US just allowed banks to mark assets to model vs. mark to market. If that's the case, this could just be fancy accounting pyrotechnics. It still baffles me why anyone would base their investment decisions on the predictions of government officials, especially the heads of the US Treasury and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Hank Paulson said a year and a half ago that the US economy was the strongest he's ever seen, and Ben Bernanke's been predicting a turnaround six months down the road pretty much since the recession started.

I think we should revisit this thread at the end of the year and see who's right.

Well of course you're right, it's too early to say how things are going to unfold over the next 6 months one way or the other, But things seem to be looking up and if it's true that much of how things unfold can be written down to consumer psychology then that's a good sign. Not so much on the consumption side, as the stock market side side of things. But given that the stock market is suppose to be a leading indicator that bodes well.

I also believe the local real estate market has shifted it's trajectory from huge year over year declines that many predicted, to declines on the less severe than many had forecasted, but it may be too early to say this definitively.

 

[FunSugarDaddy]

I think it's going to rocket up and down day after day for several more months as people dump their money in and pull it out with every little piece of bad or good news.

Round about Oct, we will start to see it edging up slowly, still with lots of ups and downs, but trending upward. The Dow will level off at around 10K after 6 months, and normal trading will pick back up about a year from now.

Over the course of the next two years the Canadian dollar will rise up to close to the value of the American dollar as the price of oil rises again.

Since no one has learned anything from all of this, we will go through it all again in a couple decades.

Just my 2 cents or 10 trillion dollars... whatever

I personally think the first week in March was the bottom, but I could be wrong. Just the fact the market seems to be reacting to news instead of simply panicking is probably a good thing.

 

[threepeat]

After devoting a considerable amount of brainpower over the years to the predictive stock market and efficient markets theory, I've decided to file that under "Lies My Financial Analyst or CNBC Told Me."

If markets were that predictive, we could have said two months ago (when the markets were in the toilet) that the worst was yet to come.

My new theory is The Trend is Your Friend until The End of the Trend.

 

[Evolve]

I personally think the first week in March was the bottom, but I could be wrong. Just the fact the market seems to be reacting to news instead of simply panicking is probably a good thing.

I agree, I just don't think we are going to see consistent normal growth for a while yet. I seriously doubt the Dow will drop below 7K again until the next market crash.

I forgot to mention, if any of my predictions are wrong, please see you local government agency for a bailout check.

 

[BrokeBastard]

I wanted to read about posters buying houses for half their asking price and rubbing it in.

 

[Cosmo]

Does this mean you have missed me FSD?

Lots of doom to go around still. Although... did I not tell you about 7 weeks ago that the stock market was about to take off, which it did with it's greatest 7 week run up since 1934. I trust Perberts were able to profit over the last month and a half.

BTW... Cynics aren't silent... they've just been out seizing opportunity. And that, as I have always said, is the point of my comments... to wit: recognizing the evolving situation for what it is and taking advantage of it.

(Note on the market: Cosmo is now bearish again and is cashing out his profits)

As for R/E... I'll come back to you with more if you really want to hear it.

 

[Cosmo]

I also believe the local real estate market has shifted it's trajectory from huge year over year declines that many predicted, to declines on the less severe than many had forecasted, but it may be too early to say this definitively.

The benchmark single family house price is down over $121,000 after 11 months.

That's a decline of over $10,000 per month each and every month for the last 11 months. Put another way, houses have lost more this past year than the combined annual income of the average lower mainland family.

The United States is now in it's fourth year of the housing collapse.

BC is only 11 months into it's housing collapse.

To date Vancouver's benchmark price has plunged faster than virtually every single American city at it's 11 month mark (save a couple of cities like Miami).

In the United States things did not really pick up steam until midway through the second year (after a minor period of rising prices from the initial plunge).

Our collapse has only just begun.

 

[wess]

I'm one of the doomsayers, and about a month and a half ago I was going to make a post touting the values of gold, as it was flirting with its all-time high. Good thing I didn't, because I would now be eating crow.

Now that the shoe is on the other foot, I submit there's a pretty good chance that now that the bulls are having their turn saying "I was right," that's a contrarian indicator that the market's getting toppy and it's getting close to the right time to short.

Today's stock market surge is in large part because people are buying Geithner's statement that U.S. banks are actually starting to make money. Maybe someone who knows more about the subject than me can say if this is cause the US just allowed banks to mark assets to model vs. mark to market. If that's the case, this could just be fancy accounting pyrotechnics. It still baffles me why anyone would base their investment decisions on the predictions of government officials, especially the heads of the US Treasury and the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. Hank Paulson said a year and a half ago that the US economy was the strongest he's ever seen, and Ben Bernanke's been predicting a turnaround six months down the road pretty much since the recession started.

I think we should revisit this thread at the end of the year and see who's right.

I have been buying gold, you are wrong. We will see.

 

[FunSugarDaddy]

Does this mean you have missed me FSD?

Lots of doom to go around still. Although... did I not tell you about 7 weeks ago that the stock market was about to take off, which it did with it's greatest 7 week run up since 1934. I trust Perberts were able to profit over the last month and a half.

BTW... Cynics aren't silent... they've just been out seizing opportunity. And that, as I have always said, is the point of my comments... to wit: recognizing the evolving situation for what it is and taking advantage of it.

(Note on the market: Cosmo is now bearish again and is cashing out his profits)

As for R/E... I'll come back to you with more if you really want to hear it.

I don't recall, but I'm sure you have a post you can pull out of reference, I would image, cause it you think I have faith in you or anyone else, to call the market with any degree of accuracy, you're sadly mistaken. But if you want to take a shot of where the markets going to be 6 months from now, I'm all ears.

 

[FunSugarDaddy]

The benchmark single family house price is down over $121,000 after 11 months.

That's a decline of over $10,000 per month each and every month for the last 11 months. Put another way, houses have lost more this past year than the combined annual income of the average lower mainland family.

The United States is now in it's fourth year of the housing collapse.

BC is only 11 months into it's housing collapse.

To date Vancouver's benchmark price has plunged faster than virtually every single American city at it's 11 month mark (save a couple of cities like Miami).

In the United States things did not really pick up steam until midway through the second year (after a minor period of rising prices from the initial plunge).

Our collapse has only just begun.

So what's that mean? I gather it means a significant decline in prices for all of 2009? As far as the drops go, yes 120K is significant, but it was just as significant when people were gains sums of this magnitude, in some cases on an annual basis. The vast majority of home owners are simply returns some of the unrealized gains they accrued over the last 4-5 years, myself included.

 

[threepeat]

I have been buying gold, you are wrong. We will see.

Oh, don't get me wrong, I'm still in gold with both feet, and accumulating more as I go. I'm just a lot more quiet about it these days

I just don't see how the US can get itself out of the huge official debt they have ($11 trillion or $37K for each American), not to mention the crippling amount of unofficial debt ($61 trillion or $200K per citizen). Add an aging workforce and a gutted manufacturing base to the equation and I don't know where the fundamentals for a rebound come from.

Wess , you and I disagree about the Federal Reserve, but if you have 26 minutes to kill and want to watch a compelling argument for the other side, you should check this out: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rz1b__MdtHY

 

[FunSugarDaddy]

Oh, don't get me wrong, I'm still in gold with both feet, and accumulating more as I go. I'm just a lot more quiet about it these days

I just don't see how the US can get itself out of the huge official debt they have ($11 trillion or $37K for each American), not to mention the crippling amount of unofficial debt ($61 trillion or $200K per citizen). Add an aging workforce and a gutted manufacturing base to the equation and I don't know where the fundamentals for a rebound come from.

Wess , you and I disagree about the Federal Reserve, but if you have 26 minutes to kill and want to watch a compelling argument for the other side, you should check this out: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rz1b__MdtHY

Well it's relative to a couple of things. Firstly as a % of GDP they're lower than they were after the second world war, and they are certainly much lower than Japan.

The unofficial debt is not 61 Trillion, those are projected liabilities based on the current health care and old age security obligations. But they're still huge and Obama has certainly referenced the need to changes to the current health care system on a regular basis. If this happens, and it's very likely it will, that future liability will shink significantly. Basically, they've left this to the 11th hour, but there is still time to make the tough decisions necessary to address this impending liability. It's not like it's a secret.

 

[littlejimbigher]

I have been buying gold, you are wrong. We will see.

Gold is still at 90% of its all time high.( Canadian dollars)

 

[HankQuinlan]

Is it just me, or has there been a noticable drop in the number of posts by doomsayers?

Things are far from perfect and unemployment rates continue to rise, but it seems to me that they are silent because it appears that the local real estate market is either leveled off, or god-forbid increasing, and the stock market has for the most part been on a tear over the last month. (ie an increase of >20% since the first week in March)

As mentioned I'm not saying all is rosey or the the stock market might not drop going forward, but the silence is deafening.

We are too busy to post --- digging bunkers, stocking up on food and water, buying guns and ammo to fend off the cannibals....