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With oil prices plunging, what is next for Alberta?

CanineCowboy

Active member
Feb 5, 2010
604
158
43
Oil prices are currently in a freefall as a result of decreased global demand and an increased cheaper supply leaving Alberta unable to compete and their oil companies' stocks tumbling.

Forget about blaming Trudeau for stalled expanded pipeline capacity and the flight of capital investment from the tar sands, after all Alberta's finger pointing and blame, the latest crisis illustrates that investing in Alberta bitumen is a loser's game. The competition is at such a competitive advantage that they can shutter Alberta's high cost production of low quality oil at will, while still turning a profit.

Will Alberta finally learn this time to wean themselves off of the volatile oil teat? And should Jason Kenney resign? His 10 day old provincial budget, which was always based on fantasyland oil prices, showed a complete lack of foresight and leadership.

If only Alberta had listened to Greta, they could have already started charting their path forward.
 

masterblaster

Well-known member
May 19, 2004
1,592
727
113
Next election will just vote in another NDP government and their socialist policies will set things right again.
 

rlock

Well-known member
May 20, 2015
1,889
863
113
Considering the huge fall-off in demand from China and other virus-stricken countries, OPEC and Russia were trying to do some deal to restrict production. Instead, they got mad at each other and talks broke off, with the Saudis (thus OPEC) deciding they would ramp up production to crash the price. It was explicitly stated they are hoping to knock higher-cost producers (like Canada) right out of the game.
 

Gardener

Active member
May 9, 2017
327
66
28
It’s not just the Canadian energy sector in serious decline, it’s the global energy sector. Pull up a stock chart on Exxon, Shell, Schlumberger etc. All of them are in the toilet just like Suncor etc. The entire industry is in decline and no, it’s not JT’s fault.
 

storm rider

Banned
Dec 6, 2008
2,545
6
0
Calgary
Next election will just vote in another NDP government and their socialist policies will set things right again.
What fantasy world do you live in?Albertan's never voted for an NDP government.The NDP got elected because of a protest vote that went horribly wrong because the late Jim Prentiss chastised us with the most ill-chosen words
in Canadian political history when he said "Albertan's need to look in the mirror".

In every riding the NDP won they took it with the thinnest margins whilst the PC/WR split the right wing vote down the middle.

If you like Socialism so much why not cash out and retire to Venezuela.That lifestyle should suit you just fine comrade.

SR
 

happycanuck99

Sucker for a smile! :)
Jun 28, 2018
314
371
63
The way I see it, there are two outcomes in the long run. They are based on my understanding that alternative fuels simply can't support the world's population now, and won't in any kind of foreseeable future. Hence the two alternatives:
  1. The price of oil will eventually go up again, and Alberta will do well again. This seems inevitable since no matter how we look at it, the oil is needed. The only question is how long it will take.
  2. The world embraces nukes. From what I can understand, this is the only reasonable alternative to oil. Unfortunately even that can't replace oil entirely until we have a much different infrastructure that can support electrical transmission and storage.
I suppose we could raise a third alternative, which is where Greta and her crowd seem to be taking us: let the vast majority of the world (i.e. the relative poor) starve and freeze in the dark.

Yes, that's massive oversimplification, and I could add a lot more, but that would make this TLDR material.
 

masterblaster

Well-known member
May 19, 2004
1,592
727
113
What fantasy world do you live in?Albertan's never voted for an NDP government.The NDP got elected because of a protest vote that went horribly wrong because the late Jim Prentiss chastised us with the most ill-chosen words
in Canadian political history when he said "Albertan's need to look in the mirror".

In every riding the NDP won they took it with the thinnest margins whilst the PC/WR split the right wing vote down the middle.

If you like Socialism so much why not cash out and retire to Venezuela.That lifestyle should suit you just fine comrade.

SR
I was merely playing into canine cowboys obvious laughable trolling efforts as his dislike of Alberta is well known. Throwing him off so to speak as it’s obvious he is a left wing agitator and an NDP fan. Perhaps my jibe was too subtle.
 
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happycanuck99

Sucker for a smile! :)
Jun 28, 2018
314
371
63
What fantasy world do you live in?
storm rider, I think you misunderstood. If you knew masterblaster you'd know that his statement was 100% sarcasm (at least I think it was). :D
 

Horn_dawg

Member
Mar 19, 2006
340
9
18
storm rider, I think you misunderstood. If you knew masterblaster you'd know that his statement was 100% sarcasm (at least I think it was). :D
Given how MB and SR have been echoing each other in other threads about Alberta, governments, climate crisis and other topics - this misinterpretation is both ironic and illustrative.
 

Daynight

New member
Mar 9, 2018
10
0
0
Alberta better wake up. Play this political game, crank up production to max. Follow trumps friends strategy and flood this market, fill those tanks. Its a forward looking strategy with little morals for allies. But face it, since Trudeau got caught laughing at trump on the hot mike. States being largest producer now. Canada is getting quickly pushed into the energy grave. Yup by : States, saudis, and Russia
 

storm rider

Banned
Dec 6, 2008
2,545
6
0
Calgary
I was merely playing into canine cowboys obvious laughable trolling efforts as his dislike of Alberta is well known. Throwing him off so to speak as it’s obvious he is a left wing agitator and an NDP fan. Perhaps my jibe was too subtle.
I dont look at it that way as I dont dislike any particular Province based upon any ideology.Yes I do resent that Quebec has it good at the expense of Alberta but that is something that has been crafted by the Lieberals for decades.Feed tax payer money into Quebec so as to get votes and seats in the house of commons.Exactly why Chretien pleaded with Quebecers when they had the referendum in the 1990's because if Quebec seperated from Canada the Lieberals would lose any chance of governance in Canada forever.

I dont dislike or have any hatred toward any Province in Canada though from my own experience I find people from Ontario feel pretty entitled in general.

I grew up in Alberta and I have lived in Alberta for 22 years now.I have cut my teeth and found my niche in life.I dont like how people flock to here when times are good and the streets are proverbially paved in gold and then they all fuck off when times get a bit choppy and tough.You tighten you belt and batten down the hatches and weather the storm IMO.Been through a few declines and yes I did partially piss away an oil boom.

Got my house paid off in 11 years through hard work and I have no regrets.

SR
 

Bridge

Well-known member
Nov 11, 2014
754
611
93
Could there be a downturn in tourism because of the virus. Oil patch and now tourism and about a $71B Debt ... ouch!
 

Vpete

Member
Oct 29, 2017
99
37
18
Alberta only has it self to blame they had a great boom time they did amazing but they never learned from the past. where is the heritage fund now? they need to have a solid tax base that makes things better for them in the long term because the booms and the busts happenwith greater frequency and they are far more severe.
 

Gardener

Active member
May 9, 2017
327
66
28
Alberta’s failure to diversify their economy over the decades is a generational mistake. Look at Texas as an example. Major energy economy, but other sectors like tech, autos, aerospace, and finance are equally as important. Oh well, you reap what you sow.
 

overdone

Well-known member
Apr 26, 2007
1,458
158
63
It’s not just the Canadian energy sector in serious decline, it’s the global energy sector. Pull up a stock chart on Exxon, Shell, Schlumberger etc. All of them are in the toilet just like Suncor etc. The entire industry is in decline and no, it’s not JT’s fault.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/SU/suncor-energy-/revenue


https://globalnews.ca/news/5229372/suncor-energy-profit-oil-energy-oilsands-libya

https://thenarwhal.ca/how-albertas-biggest-oil-companies-are-still-raking-in-billions

don't know about the last one, but they use the Left wing nut job Parkland institute, so the numbers must be true, lol

bottom-line, the big producers, aren't going anywhere, they are the oilsands, their production will still be there for decades, delude yourself all you want

the profits won't be as big, but they aren't going under

just another blip, like 2008/2014

go look at the numbers last time oil was 30dbl, this isn't new

the reports of their demise are greatly exaggerated, as usual


Alberta’s failure to diversify their economy over the decades is a generational mistake. Look at Texas as an example. Major energy economy, but other sectors like tech, autos, aerospace, and finance are equally as important. Oh well, you reap what you sow.
yeah, now troll out the Norway comparison again, ffs

Texas has no state income tax, it has 28 million people, it sits next to the cheap labour of Mexico, it's wages are lower, house prices, they have access to the ocean, have weather we can only hope for in 13 yrs when the true goal of Alberta comes to fruition, a 2 degree increase in temperature, lol, could go on

but why, you clearly don't understand that Alberta has 10 other parasites that have been sucking on it's economy for 60+yrs

give us back our 600 Billion, then let's compare :flypig:




Start watching the roads in british Columbia to fill up with Alberta license plates looking for jobs.
you mean with their old licence plates? I couldn't count all the BC/Sask/MB/Que/Ont plates from 10 yrs ago


and all you should quit hoping for this, cause you seem to forget Alberta is the biggest net contributor to this current 3rd world Liberal country

which isn't in good financial shape, don't believe me, look at the actual numbers

growth/business investment/equipment investment/exports, foreign investment, ect....

real numbers, not just the ones Turdeau's idiot finance minister is pushing
 

Gardener

Active member
May 9, 2017
327
66
28
Suncor was $72 in 2008, is now $27
Canadian Natural Resources was $54 in 2008, is now $21
Exxon was $105 in 2014, is now $42
Shell was was $86 in 2008, is now $36

If that’s winning count me out.
 

appleomac

Active member
Aug 9, 2010
570
168
43
Suncor was $72 in 2008, is now $27
Canadian Natural Resources was $54 in 2008, is now $21
Exxon was $105 in 2014, is now $42
Shell was was $86 in 2008, is now $36

If that’s winning count me out.
LOL. For the first three you're taking the companies' all time historical highs and comparing them to prices today??? I would suggest looking at their prices in the later half of 2008 (when the financial crisis was really beginning to take hold) and compare them to today's prices - they are not that far off.
 

licks2nite

Active member
Nov 30, 2006
658
79
28
Suncor was $72 in 2008, is now $27
Canadian Natural Resources was $54 in 2008, is now $21
Exxon was $105 in 2014, is now $42
Shell was was $86 in 2008, is now $36

If that’s winning count me out.
In today's volatile markets, stocks have to monitored and traded. Buy the dip and sell the rally. Certainly isn't creating any wealth but that the only way to make money in the market these days.
 

Gardener

Active member
May 9, 2017
327
66
28
LOL. For the first three you're taking the companies' all time historical highs and comparing them to prices today??? I would suggest looking at their prices in the later half of 2008 (when the financial crisis was really beginning to take hold) and compare them to today's prices - they are not that far off.
I took your advice and recalculated returns. All numbers below are from the credit crisis market lows on March 9, 2009 until today. That would be 11 years.

CDN Natural +4.7%
Suncor -8.42%
Exxon -32%
Shell -10.27%
Schlumberger -54.90
Trican Well -89.15%

S&P 500 +295% !!!
 
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