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Thread: An interesting article re; herd immunity & Covid-19

  1. #1
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    An interesting article re; herd immunity & Covid-19


  2. #2
    I heard something about this as well. The big draw back is the toll it will take on everybodies healthcare system. In time it's already going to max out our healtcare systems. Trying to minimize the spread I think is the lesser of two evils.

    Quoted from link.
    But shooting for herd immunity right away would be a disastrous strategy, according to the newest models. That’s because so many people will become severely ill—and a sudden boom in sick people needing hospital or ICU care will overwhelm hospitals. The UK this week signaled it would instead do more to suppress the virus, including discouraging gatherings. Slowing it down would mean health systems could be spared and lives saved, but ultimately the result could be the same. That is, even if the pandemic is drawn out over time, it may still take herd immunity to bring it to an end.

  3. #3
    this appears to be a very interested intersect between public health policy and economic policy. indeed, eventually, within 12 to 24 months, just about everybody will get the virus. we're flattening the curve but making the curve last longer. we've shave $1T off of the economy in a couple of weeks. 24 months of the same and we would be back in the stone age. and the question i don't see being answered is, how many of the people being admitted to hospital are surviving? if there is no vaccine and no therapy then are we simply using precious health resources to comfort those who will be dying in 12 to 24 months anyways? at what cost? should we simply be business as usual... shelter in place those most in danger to extend the lives of those who will not survive anyways? i know it may sound barbaric but 10's of thousands of people die in automobile accidents every year. we haven't stopped that.

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    A comment I saw on social media recently has stuck in my mind

    It went something along the lines of if you have 80 packages of toilet paper and no guns, you have no toilet paper.

    We need to be realistic about the economic damage of indefinite shutdowns. The government is making a show of giving help, but its like putting a bandaid over a bullet wound. And there is only a finite amount of bailout money.

    If the economy collapses, so will society. And crime rates will skyrocket because people will start doing whatever they need to do to survive.

  5. #5
    Sir DATY the Vulvinator
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    Quote Originally Posted by Miss Hunter View Post
    A comment I saw on social media recently has stuck in my mind

    It went something along the lines of “if you have 80 packages of toilet paper and no guns, you have no toilet paper.”

    We need to be realistic about the economic damage of indefinite shutdowns. The government is making a show of giving help, but it’s like putting a bandaid over a bullet wound. And there is only a finite amount of bailout money.

    If the economy collapses, so will society. And crime rates will skyrocket because people will start doing whatever they need to do to survive.
    Yep.

    And in Canada we have the keystone cops in charge with an imbecile at the top who would happily impose martial law to stay in power forever.

  6. #6
    Our, and US, health care systems won't be able to handle the rush very shortly, even well before the 40% infected number. This issue then is compounded by the non-infected but need medical attention of other matters.
    Then add it the fact that this virus has mutated at least once already.
    Interesting times ahead.

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by marsvolta View Post
    this appears to be a very interested intersect between public health policy and economic policy. indeed, eventually, within 12 to 24 months, just about everybody will get the virus.
    Will those who receive the vaccine, say in one year from now, still "get the virus"?

    "The Ultimate Solution" to COVID-19:

    https://terb.cc/vbulletin/showthread...ts-vs-Vaccines

    "International Studies Find Chloroquine has 100% Success Rate Treating Wuhan Virus in 6 Days":

    http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1155729

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by lenny View Post
    Will those who receive the vaccine, say in one year from now, still "get the virus"?

    "The Ultimate Solution" to COVID-19:

    https://terb.cc/vbulletin/showthread...ts-vs-Vaccines

    "International Studies Find Chloroquine has 100% Success Rate Treating Wuhan Virus in 6 Days":

    http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1155729
    Can you please post a link to the actual studies .
    As this information about FDA approving the use for Coronavirus
    and Trumps words are not accurate .

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/polit...fda/index.html

    FDA has not approved this or any other drug in the US as a vaccine
    or treatment for COVID19. They are looking at it as away to reduce the
    duration of symptoms in patients as well viral shedding. Which may help
    reduce of spreading. So no , not a miraculous cure as Trump was suggesting .

    https://www.fda.gov/news-events/pres..._source=Eloqua
    Last edited by Reference3A; 03-20-2020 at 02:04 AM.

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    What does not add up is that China is saying that only around 81K people were infected and yet they are also saying they are having no new cases ?!?!

    With a population of 1.4B and only 91k infected, if my math is correct (and it usually is), then only 0.006% of the Chinese population is now immune. That is one hell of a long way from the approximately 60% required to reach herd immunity. Even if we only look at Wuhan province with 60 million people, that is still only 0.14 % immunity!

    So either the Chinese government is giving out false information (shocking!) or herd immunity is not required at all if we are to believe the Chinese.

    Does anyone care to explain this discrepancy.

    JD

  10. #10
    Quote Originally Posted by JimDandy View Post
    What does not add up is that China is saying that only around 81K people were infected and yet they are also saying they are having no new cases ?!?!

    With a population of 1.4B and only 91k infected, if my math is correct (and it usually is), then only 0.006% of the Chinese population is now immune. That is one hell of a long way from the approximately 60% required to reach herd immunity. Even if we only look at Wuhan province with 60 million people, that is still only 0.14 % immunity!

    So either the Chinese government is giving out false information (shocking!) or herd immunity is not required at all if we are to believe the Chinese.

    Does anyone care to explain this discrepancy.

    JD
    Whether it's China, Canada or whichever country. It would be extremely difficult to know exactly what percentage of the population has been infected with the virus. Main reason, no country has actually tested their entire population. Even if a country could test it's entire population, viral infection is fluid and not static. Case in point, just because you don't have HIV based on a test taken today, doesn't mean you won't get HIV at some point in the future. Now when it comes to China, I don't think anyone will actually ever know the actual number given their control of media and general secrecy their government takes on most matters. Even if the your Chinese numbers are accurate (i.e. 91k infected), it's best to run that against number of people tested rather than the entire population. In any event, when this thing passes, even then we probably won't know the "true" number of people infected - experts will merely estimate what they think was the total number infected.

  11. #11
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    Quote Originally Posted by lenny View Post
    "International Studies Find Chloroquine has 100% Success Rate Treating Wuhan Virus in 6 Days":
    No they don't.
    Don't go to sports forums for medical advice.

    physorg is citing actual peer reviewed research from several real journals.
    Don't spread misinformation or rumours from spurious chat rooms or Oprah or Rush.
    Two hands helping do more good than a thousand hands clasped in prayer

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Reference3A View Post
    Can you please post a link to the actual studies .
    As this information about FDA approving the use for Coronavirus
    and Trumps words are not accurate .

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/polit...fda/index.html

    FDA has not approved this or any other drug in the US as a vaccine
    or treatment for COVID19. They are looking at it as away to reduce the
    duration of symptoms in patients as well viral shedding. Which may help
    reduce of spreading. So no , not a miraculous cure as Trump was suggesting .

    https://www.fda.gov/news-events/pres..._source=Eloqua
    No, i have no intention of posting "actual studies". Leave that to those who have an interest in such things.

    The links were posted for information purposes, discussion, to give hope, not that they necessarily speak the Gospel Truth 100% of the time or are the Saviour of the world. The latter applies to any links posted.

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by westwoody View Post
    No they don't.
    Don't go to sports forums for medical advice.

    physorg is citing actual peer reviewed research from several real journals.
    Don't spread misinformation or rumours from spurious chat rooms or Oprah or Rush.
    The video was from a news station, not a sports forum or Oprah.

    And, again, the links were posted for information purposes, discussion, to give hope, not that they necessarily speak the Gospel Truth 100% of the time or are the Saviour of the world. The latter applies to any links posted.

  14. #14
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    Regarding immunity:

    "It's also possible that, for some reason, the body's immune response to seasonal coronaviruses is just not that robust or that something about the infection itself may inhibit the body's ability to develop long-term immunity.

    "Maybe the antibodies are not protective and that is why, even though they are present, they don't work very well," says Frieman.

    The other known human coronaviruses, SARS and MERS, can cause more severe disease, and basically nothing is known about the possibility of reinfection with those viruses."

    https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...of-coronavirus

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