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Thread: Dr Michael Osterholm COVID 19 Expert

  1. #1

    Dr Michael Osterholm COVID 19 Expert

    Expert on infectious diseases Michael Osterholm . Here is link to his credentials , interview with Joe Rogan and CNN paper interview. It's def worth the watch . Some of the numbers are very unsettling. Times like these it's best to follow accurate information and not assume anything . There is a lot of inaccurate info out there.
    This video has been posted a couple times but felt it important to get to the top of a thread. Not trying to up stage anyone .
    We're all in this together folks. In time it could effect a great many of us all or our loved ones. Wash your hands frequently , avoid crowded spaces if possible, cough into your arm, isolation is a good idea, be vigilant Maybe admin can make this a sticky so proper info is available to all and easily accessed.


    http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/about-us/c...erholm-phd-mph

    https://youtu.be/cZFhjMQrVts

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/10/opini...gen/index.html

  2. #2
    Class, Sass and .........
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    Thanks for the post.
    I really like the Joe Rogan interview.

  3. #3
    Your Welcome Fiona

  4. #4
    Registered User
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    Also this is the official Government of Canada COVID page:

    https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...infection.html

    249 confirmed cases as of 15 March

  5. #5
    Osterholm seems at best to be an alarmist.

    "One model from the Harvard School of Public Health, the model I find most reliable, estimates that, at minimum, 20% of the world's population will get infected."


    If you consider China, and the very reasonable logic that says there are ten times as many actual cases of Covid as the official counts (based in part on getting and graphing back data from interviews with Chinese who tested positive for Corona - "I first felt symptoms 2 weeks ago", for example)...

    Take today's most recent count of Chinese cases of Covid (81,009 at 5:33pm on March 15)... multiply by 10, and round up to 900,000.

    That is 1 case in 1594 humans... in not only the origin of the virus, but also in the most populous country in the world.



    The 2nd-most populous country in the world... is up to 113 confirmed cases as of the same update today.



    There cannot be a soul who would at this point wager on the "over" (of half-a-billion) when combining those two largest countries on earth and expecting 20% of their combined populations to get Covid.

  6. #6
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    You have to remember what he said about the doubling of the virus every 4 days, if protections are not in place. Right now they have no solid vaccine for the Corona Virus, the shut down of the public helps prevent the spread of the virus until technology can find an vaccine, and help relieve public stress.... The public shutdowns buys more time....
    He also said that its in the earliest stages, that it could go on for 3, or 6 months or more; meanwhile people panic shop....

    What really amazes me is where people are gonna store all that toilet paper and bleach etc when apartments are made for storage of large quantities of materials, most apartments don't have pantries. Our houses and apartments are designed on the principle that there always be stores for food, toiletries etc... and that there is always a supply....

    Imagine if every city kept a 4 months supply of toiletries on hand, and and a supply of food for 4 months....

    Its not a good business model to keep things stored, until they are needed....because to store material it cost money, for building electricity, heat etc. which adds to the cost of the product. Especially in cold climates like Canada..

  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by wetnose View Post
    Also this is the official Government of Canada COVID page:

    https://www.canada.ca/en/public-heal...infection.html

    249 confirmed cases as of 15 March
    Good intel . Thank You . I’ve been monitoring WHO and CDC occasionally. Will keep on eye on this as well.

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by SeekSteadyRegSP View Post
    Osterholm seems at best to be an alarmist.

    "One model from the Harvard School of Public Health, the model I find most reliable, estimates that, at minimum, 20% of the world's population will get infected."


    If you consider China, and the very reasonable logic that says there are ten times as many actual cases of Covid as the official counts (based in part on getting and graphing back data from interviews with Chinese who tested positive for Corona - "I first felt symptoms 2 weeks ago", for example)...

    Take today's most recent count of Chinese cases of Covid (81,009 at 5:33pm on March 15)... multiply by 10, and round up to 900,000.

    That is 1 case in 1594 humans... in not only the origin of the virus, but also in the most populous country in the world.



    The 2nd-most populous country in the world... is up to 113 confirmed cases as of the same update today.



    There cannot be a soul who would at this point wager on the "over" (of half-a-billion) when combining those two largest countries on earth and expecting 20% of their combined populations to get Covid.
    I think the doctors credentials speak for themselves . It's why I posted them. As far as India is concerned there are two thoughts . Lack of testing compared to other countries . Second is the virus may not survive in a hot humid environment . SARS , Eboli and MERS didn't have serious effect there either . While a different type of disease India isn't even in the top 10 for HIV. Using your logic India should be 2nd for all diseases. It doesn't work that way . Travel habits play a big role early on with infectious diseases. It's how their spread globally.

    But you have to look at the numbers . Just a brief summary .
    India, population of 1 311 588 204
    Confirmed 112., 2 Deaths 13 Recovered
    Third most populated United States 331 883 986
    Confirmed 3752 , 68 Deaths 73 Recovered
    Italy 23rd most populated country 62,246,672
    Confirmed 24 747 , 1809 Deaths 2335 Recovered
    Canada 35 most populated country with 35,881,660
    Confirmed 341 with 1 Death and 8 Recovered

    Globally March 13. 8PM Pacific Time
    137 674 cases
    5080 Deaths
    70 437 Recovered .

    March 16 630 AM Pacific Time
    174 134 cases
    6684 Deaths
    77 865 Recovered

    Canada doubled the amount of cases in 48 ish hours
    Went from 138 to 341 . Geographically Canada is roughly three times the size of India, With a population far far less but yet we have three times as many reported cases. With our size and major cities spread so far apart one would naturally think a place like India would far exceed our reported numbers . But it's not , right now anyways . It’s all over the place which is big problem .
    I thought he came off sounding concerned and we all should be. Not panicking but vigilant . Shutting everything down and heeding advice of the heath professionals. Hopefully the spreading will be minimized. Which is what their trying to do. Minimize the death rate.
    Just imagine where this would go if authorities did nothing ? How far this goes is too early to tell. Will we hit 20 percent? Hopefully not .Time measures everything . We will know more in 15. In 30 days will have a better handle on exactly how bad this will be.

    https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/74453719.cms

    https://www.huffingtonpost.in/entry/...b6747ef11d90e0
    Last edited by Reference3A; 03-16-2020 at 06:42 AM.

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