Osterholm seems at best to be an alarmist.
"One model from the Harvard School of Public Health, the model I find most reliable, estimates that, at minimum, 20% of the world's population will get infected."
If you consider China, and the very reasonable logic that says there are ten times as many actual cases of Covid as the official counts (based in part on getting and graphing back data from interviews with Chinese who tested positive for Corona - "I first felt symptoms 2 weeks ago", for example)...
Take today's most recent count of Chinese cases of Covid (81,009 at 5:33pm on March 15)... multiply by 10, and round up to 900,000.
That is 1 case in 1594 humans... in not only the origin of the virus, but also in the most populous country in the world.
The 2nd-most populous country in the world... is up to 113 confirmed cases as of the same update today.
There cannot be a soul who would at this point wager on the "over" (of half-a-billion) when combining those two largest countries on earth and expecting 20% of their combined populations to get Covid.
I think the doctors credentials speak for themselves . It's why I posted them. As far as India is concerned there are two thoughts . Lack of testing compared to other countries . Second is the virus may not survive in a hot humid environment . SARS , Eboli and MERS didn't have serious effect there either . While a different type of disease India isn't even in the top 10 for HIV. Using your logic India should be 2nd for all diseases. It doesn't work that way . Travel habits play a big role early on with infectious diseases. It's how their spread globally.
But you have to look at the numbers . Just a brief summary .
India, population of 1 311 588 204
Confirmed 112., 2 Deaths 13 Recovered
Third most populated United States 331 883 986
Confirmed 3752 , 68 Deaths 73 Recovered
Italy 23rd most populated country 62,246,672
Confirmed 24 747 , 1809 Deaths 2335 Recovered
Canada 35 most populated country with 35,881,660
Confirmed 341 with 1 Death and 8 Recovered
Globally March 13. 8PM Pacific Time
137 674 cases
5080 Deaths
70 437 Recovered .
March 16 630 AM Pacific Time
174 134 cases
6684 Deaths
77 865 Recovered
Canada doubled the amount of cases in 48 ish hours
Went from 138 to 341 . Geographically Canada is roughly three times the size of India, With a population far far less but yet we have three times as many reported cases. With our size and major cities spread so far apart one would naturally think a place like India would far exceed our reported numbers . But it's not , right now anyways . It’s all over the place which is big problem .
I thought he came off sounding concerned and we all should be. Not panicking but vigilant . Shutting everything down and heeding advice of the heath professionals. Hopefully the spreading will be minimized. Which is what their trying to do. Minimize the death rate.
Just imagine where this would go if authorities did nothing ? How far this goes is too early to tell. Will we hit 20 percent? Hopefully not .Time measures everything . We will know more in 15. In 30 days will have a better handle on exactly how bad this will be.
https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...oronavirus-after-all/articleshow/74453719.cms
https://www.huffingtonpost.in/entry/indias-coronavirus-cases_in_5e6c9bcac5b6747ef11d90e0