How do you think the protests in Hong Kong will end?

JimDandy

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May 17, 2004
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I have no idea what the answer is to my question. As an outsider, it appears:

- that the protesters will likely not be satisfied until there is a resignation of all the people currently in power in Hong Kong.

- that the protests are becoming more and more violent and destructive.

- that arresting or even execution of the ring leaders will not stop the protests since there appear to be others ready to take over the lead if the current ring leaders are somehow stopped.

- that the Chinese goverrnment is does not want to appear to be the heavy here (because they don't want to be accused of another Tiananmen Square Msssacre).

I said I have no idea how it will end, but I will take a wild guess. The Chinese government will let the HK government try to clean up its own mess. They will fail badly. When the situation becomes so dire that the vast majority of HK people and even the western countries start asking for the Chinese government to intercede, then and only then will they will finally come in and "rescue" the good people of Hong Kong. It may still be a massacre, but there will be very litle blame attributed to the Chinese government. And it will provide a very useful lesson for the Chinese government to the rest of China as to what happens when you try to change the status quo.

JD
 

Lo-ki

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Jul 18, 2011
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Check your closet..:)
housing to be completely unaffordable for millenials that are educated and they feel like even if they work hard, there is no future in HK for them.
That sounds like Vancouver.....
 

JimDandy

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Hong kong has alot of systematic governance problems that caused the wealth gap to become larger and larger, housing to be completely unaffordable for millenials that are educated and they feel like even if they work hard, there is no future in HK for them.
That sums up very well the reason the protesters have continued their protesting.

But I would still like to hear your prediction on how it all ends.

JD
 

Booker_E

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Mar 9, 2010
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Such happenings/sentiments aren’t isolated to Hong Kong or Vancouver. Arguably Vancouver is a few steps behind HK and San Francisco when it comes to this.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/california-housing-crisis-causes-874803/

As to the OP’s question - since the Chinese government is likely hesitant to be to heavy handed, they’ll probably tolerate the current situation and ride it out for as long as possible. Does anybody realistically think the protestors will ever get all their demands (5 in total) met? Unlikely.


That sounds like Vancouver.....
 

storm rider

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I dont see it ending anytime soon or quietly.China may have the masses under the leash on the mainland but they dont in Hong Kong and that is why the protests started with that extradition bill.....people spoke up and acted loudly and with vehemance as any dog would do as it sees that proverbial "choke chain" being brandished.

I doubt it will escalate to what happened at Tiananenman square and even the Chinese Government did not keep that under wraps though they did sweep it under the rug.Wont happen this time though.Too much international attention to it.

SR
 

chitown

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Jul 3, 2014
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That sounds like Vancouver.....
The difference is in Vancouver people can vote. Different parties and politicians can suggest ideas on how to change things in terms of the economy, housing, etc etc, and people put their support behind the party they think will best help them.

In HK there isn't democracy. If the people aren't happy with the status quo, they don't have any way to change things. The government that's in power stays in power, so it only leaves people in HK two choices, shut-up and obey or take to the streets and protest.
 

Lo-ki

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Jul 18, 2011
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Check your closet..:)
"take to the streets and protest"
And how is that working for them.......
 

uncleg

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Jul 25, 2006
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Badly....................

Last week China did a troop rotation.......not surprisingly more rotated in then rotated out. Honk Kong was to have a 50 year deal of One China Two Governments.......with the direction these protests are going I tend to think that Chinese years are going to be somewhat shorter then British years.
 

JimDandy

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I may have been too quick to suggest that Mainland China would not attach HK any time soon. I just heard that China has started to batton down the hatches. By that I mean that methods of communication that worked as recently as last week are now being stopped by the great firewall of China. I can't give more specific information since someone at my work might be able to figure out who I am if they read this post and I was more specific.

JD
 
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Jethro Bodine

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Feb 17, 2009
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I personally think that the Chinese government will allow it to go on for a while longer hoping that it burns out on its own. If it doesn't then they will send in troops and tanks to crush the protests. What the time frame is only they know. If they do send in troops and tanks that will be the end of Hong Kong as we know it and they can kiss their independent governance and economic systems good-bye. There is no way the Chinese would withdraw their troops and risk the possibility of the protests re-igniting.

I doubt it will escalate to what happened at Tiananenman square and even the Chinese Government did not keep that under wraps though they did sweep it under the rug.Wont happen this time though.Too much international attention to it.
I could see it getting ugly and don't think the Chinese give a rat's ass about the international reaction. Did foreign governments other than giving it the requisite diplomatic "Shame on You!" really do anything after Tiananmen Square Massacre? No.
Despite all of their human rights violations, violations of international laws and other atrocities committed, we still do business with them.
Look at what's happening to Canada right now. We uphold our end of an international treaty, China gets upset, arrests Canadians on trumped up charges and bones our farmers and manufacturers up the ass and our supposed allies do nothing.
Again there are strong words and diplomatic gestures but no real action.
I hate to say it but in reality the Chinese could go in and kill 10,000 people and we'd still be buying their products.
 

80watts

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May 20, 2004
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Badly for the people.... The Chinese government will send troops over; to slow the spread of democracy into mainland China. It will result in a total crackdown and incorporation into the state of China. Freedom no more.... the Chinese gov only cares about its authority over the people. They don't care about the rest of the world's opinion, because they have the official state version...
 

JimDandy

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May 17, 2004
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Xi Jinping, with all new young body parts transplanted will move to Hong Kong, start an affair with Carrie Lam.Enjoy there nights together overlooking Victoria Harbour between mainland and island Hong Kong. Will then possess somehow, Canadian passport(s). Relocate to beautiful canada’s west coast, stepping off plane first time with passport in hand... purchase a condo next to David Fosters, sit on there deck.Overlooking Victoria Harbour ( Canadian audition) once again, as they invite Meng Wenzhou for dinner via text on there Huawei P30 .... high fives to JT.......
Improbable but definitely entertaining lol.

JD
 

uncleg

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storm rider

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I personally think that the Chinese government will allow it to go on for a while longer hoping that it burns out on its own. If it doesn't then they will send in troops and tanks to crush the protests. What the time frame is only they know. If they do send in troops and tanks that will be the end of Hong Kong as we know it and they can kiss their independent governance and economic systems good-bye. There is no way the Chinese would withdraw their troops and risk the possibility of the protests re-igniting.



I could see it getting ugly and don't think the Chinese give a rat's ass about the international reaction. Did foreign governments other than giving it the requisite diplomatic "Shame on You!" really do anything after Tiananmen Square Massacre? No.
Despite all of their human rights violations, violations of international laws and other atrocities committed, we still do business with them.
Look at what's happening to Canada right now. We uphold our end of an international treaty, China gets upset, arrests Canadians on trumped up charges and bones our farmers and manufacturers up the ass and our supposed allies do nothing.
Again there are strong words and diplomatic gestures but no real action.
I hate to say it but in reality the Chinese could go in and kill 10,000 people and we'd still be buying their products.
I would like to reply to this post but I cant.Should I do so it would heavily be influenced by the the government and it's actions over the last 4 years and that would conflict with the election thread.That being said what I could offer of an opinion over Canada's action with regards to China is quite simple....the whole fracas could have been avoided if the " ship" had a steady hand holding the proverbial "tiller"

SR
 

badbadboy

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Nov 2, 2006
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In Lust Mostly
I have no idea what the answer is to my question. As an outsider, it appears:

- that the protesters will likely not be satisfied until there is a resignation of all the people currently in power in Hong Kong.

- that the protests are becoming more and more violent and destructive.

- that arresting or even execution of the ring leaders will not stop the protests since there appear to be others ready to take over the lead if the current ring leaders are somehow stopped.

- that the Chinese goverrnment is does not want to appear to be the heavy here (because they don't want to be accused of another Tiananmen Square Msssacre).

I said I have no idea how it will end, but I will take a wild guess. The Chinese government will let the HK government try to clean up its own mess. They will fail badly. When the situation becomes so dire that the vast majority of HK people and even the western countries start asking for the Chinese government to intercede, then and only then will they will finally come in and "rescue" the good people of Hong Kong. It may still be a massacre, but there will be very litle blame attributed to the Chinese government. And it will provide a very useful lesson for the Chinese government to the rest of China as to what happens when you try to change the status quo.

JD
I doubt the Chinese care if there is another Tiananmen Square massacre.

Will the Brits with all their chaos from Brexit care if the Chinese tear up the agreement between the two countries?

Sadly, no one will be able to back up Hong Kong if things go sideways. Not the US and Russia clearly supports China at the moment.
 

Jethro Bodine

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Feb 17, 2009
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Beverly Hills. In the Kitchen eatin' vittles.
I was exchanging a few emails with a business associate in Hong Kong on the weekend.
In closing my email last night, I wished him well and told him that all of Canada is hoping for a peaceful resolution to the conflict with no more loss of human life.
His exact words to me this morning were, "Thanks. Yes the place is literally going up in flames at the moment."

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/worl...inese-military-barracks/ar-AAIp9r0?li=AAggFp4

J
 

sisold

New member
Dec 6, 2018
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0
1
I have no idea what the answer is to my question. As an outsider, it appears:

- that the protesters will likely not be satisfied until there is a resignation of all the people currently in power in Hong Kong.

- that the protests are becoming more and more violent and destructive.

- that arresting or even execution of the ring leaders will not stop the protests since there appear to be others ready to take over the lead if the current ring leaders are somehow stopped.

- that the Chinese goverrnment is does not want to appear to be the heavy here (because they don't want to be accused of another Tiananmen Square Msssacre).

I said I have no idea how it will end, but I will take a wild guess. The Chinese government will let the HK government try to clean up its own mess. They will fail badly. When the situation becomes so dire that the vast majority of HK people and even the western countries start asking for the Chinese government to intercede, then and only then will they will finally come in and "rescue" the good people of Hong Kong. It may still be a massacre, but there will be very litle blame attributed to the Chinese government. And it will provide a very useful lesson for the Chinese government to the rest of China as to what happens when you try to change the status quo.

JD
Carrie Lam being able to clean up on her own is not working in a spectacular manner. Can't work because this is another American "Regime Change" operation directed by CIA agent Julie Eadeh. Trump thinks this is a negotiating tool, as much as said so. Rioter Joshua Wong spoke to the UN and American Congress demanding that the USA remove the Special Customs Status from Hong Kong. The Special Customs Status is the reason Hong Kong exists with the two systems, one country agreement. Joshua Wong has also asked the USA to deliver on Julie Eadeh's promise that America will help liberate Hong Kong. It's not going to happen as Trump demonstrated a few days ago with the Kurds.

The Rioters and Carrie Lam has created a situation where only one party can win. Yesterday, Carrie Lam threatened to ask for help from China's Armed Police.

So, two situations where Hong Kong becomes just another Chinese city:
1. Trump removes Hong Kong's Special Customs Status, which Congress has already voted for. That means that Hong Kong is no longer the gateway to China, able to arbitrage shipments in and out of China and a global financial center that is the gateway for money to flow in and out of China.
2. The Rioters become so violent that the city's transportation system, banking system, food supply and other goods are no longer working. Carrie Lam asks the Chinese Armed Police for help. This cannot be reversed, once the Armed Police cross the bridge - there is no going back. A lot of masked people will vanish into Chinese "Reeducation Camps" and grow rocks in Mongolia.

China has been trying to avoid either of these choices. That's why the tanks aren't patrolling the streets of Hong Kong right now. China still needs the flow of goods and money through Hong Kong until 2047. But, if Hong Kong becomes useless to that goal - China has demonstrated repeatability that the velvet is very thin on the iron glove.

My personal opinion is that the tanks will cross the bridge. And I know that many Hong Kong holders of Canadian and other Passports think the same way. Many have already moved into "Investment" properties they hold in Canada and they have moved over 7 Billion US Dollars of money already. Property in Hong Kong has dropped in value, property in the Lower Mainland is beginning to recover it's lost value. Seems to be Condos and inexpensive Houses right now, Luxury Houses don't seem to interest Hong Kong Chinese.
 

80watts

Well-known member
May 20, 2004
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Victoria
The Chinese are afraid what is happening in HK will happen in the rest of China. People aren't dumb. Even if they have those education schools for the general populace, people know what is happening through family and friends. Doing business with the west have given the Chinese a view of what its like on the outside.

The next place to light up will be India, and its class system. And that will be way nastier then China.
 
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