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Thread: How do you think the protests in Hong Kong will end?

  1. #1
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    How do you think the protests in Hong Kong will end?

    I have no idea what the answer is to my question. As an outsider, it appears:

    - that the protesters will likely not be satisfied until there is a resignation of all the people currently in power in Hong Kong.

    - that the protests are becoming more and more violent and destructive.

    - that arresting or even execution of the ring leaders will not stop the protests since there appear to be others ready to take over the lead if the current ring leaders are somehow stopped.

    - that the Chinese goverrnment is does not want to appear to be the heavy here (because they don't want to be accused of another Tiananmen Square Msssacre).

    I said I have no idea how it will end, but I will take a wild guess. The Chinese government will let the HK government try to clean up its own mess. They will fail badly. When the situation becomes so dire that the vast majority of HK people and even the western countries start asking for the Chinese government to intercede, then and only then will they will finally come in and "rescue" the good people of Hong Kong. It may still be a massacre, but there will be very litle blame attributed to the Chinese government. And it will provide a very useful lesson for the Chinese government to the rest of China as to what happens when you try to change the status quo.

    JD

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    Quote Originally Posted by haigum141 View Post
    housing to be completely unaffordable for millenials that are educated and they feel like even if they work hard, there is no future in HK for them.
    That sounds like Vancouver.....
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  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by haigum141 View Post
    Hong kong has alot of systematic governance problems that caused the wealth gap to become larger and larger, housing to be completely unaffordable for millenials that are educated and they feel like even if they work hard, there is no future in HK for them.
    That sums up very well the reason the protesters have continued their protesting.

    But I would still like to hear your prediction on how it all ends.

    JD

  4. #4
    Such happenings/sentiments aren’t isolated to Hong Kong or Vancouver. Arguably Vancouver is a few steps behind HK and San Francisco when it comes to this.

    https://www.rollingstone.com/politic...causes-874803/

    As to the OP’s question - since the Chinese government is likely hesitant to be to heavy handed, they’ll probably tolerate the current situation and ride it out for as long as possible. Does anybody realistically think the protestors will ever get all their demands (5 in total) met? Unlikely.


    Quote Originally Posted by Lo-ki View Post
    That sounds like Vancouver.....

  5. #5
    Quote Originally Posted by JimDandy View Post
    I have no idea what the answer is to my question. As an outsider, it appears:

    - that the protesters will likely not be satisfied until there is a resignation of all the people currently in power in Hong Kong.

    - that the protests are becoming more and more violent and destructive.

    - that arresting or even execution of the ring leaders will not stop the protests since there appear to be others ready to take over the lead if the current ring leaders are somehow stopped.

    - that the Chinese goverrnment is does not want to appear to be the heavy here (because they don't want to be accused of another Tiananmen Square Msssacre).

    I said I have no idea how it will end, but I will take a wild guess. The Chinese government will let the HK government try to clean up its own mess. They will fail badly. When the situation becomes so dire that the vast majority of HK people and even the western countries start asking for the Chinese government to intercede, then and only then will they will finally come in and "rescue" the good people of Hong Kong. It may still be a massacre, but there will be very litle blame attributed to the Chinese government. And it will provide a very useful lesson for the Chinese government to the rest of China as to what happens when you try to change the status quo.

    JD
    Point one: Resignations or even wholesale changes of government would require the approval of the Mainland government. So..., not going to happen or if changes do happen it's very unlikely they will be to the satisfaction of the disaffected masses. Another of the demands is to have an inquiry into police violence, good luck with that...

    Point two: This is a touchy subject for a variety of reasons. For one, the Mainland government has a vested interest in making it appear as though the protestors are a small, foreign organized/funded, extremely violent, and losing popular support group. This plays well for the spoon-fed Mainland population, as they see the silly idiots in HK as spoiled brats who want "all the benefits of being Chinese, without being Chinese". Also, it will play to China's advantage locally with their long game strategy (I'll pick up on that point later). The protests have largely been peaceful, or at the very least start out as large peaceful marches which often end with smaller groups of hardline protestors taking up the torch to spar with the cops.

    Point three: Arrest and execution of the ring leaders... The brilliant thing about these protests is the largely decentralized nature when it comes to organization - although there will certainly be a core group arranging some aspects, it has otherwise been a somewhat organic system unlike the previous protest movements which were much more vulnerable to being dismantled with targeted arrests. Now, there are a handful of well known and internationally recognized ring leaders (China would prefer shit disturbers, but I digress) as well as more liberal politicians who could be rendered into Chinese custody - after a suitable period of disappearance, only to pop back up making a full and contrite public apology renouncing their Westernized ways... Would it be effective? Probably not, but it could be tried anyway. Execution, especially of visible and international figures has the potential to stir up too much shit internationally at least for now, so it's worth avoiding that for the time being.

    Point four: Seeing how Tiananmen Square never happened, rolling the tanks to maintain order and ensure the stability of "One CHINA" against the anti-Communist Western hordes would play just fine for the Mainland viewing audience. Or at least they would see a further example of why they should shut the fuck up and mind their manners, else Chairman Xi gets paranoid and has them "reeducated". Being able to control the narrative locally (within Mainland China) means you can play this out however you want to, and probably get away with it. I'd imagine any operation to roll the tanks into Hong Kong will be preceded by the wholesale arrest of mouthy dissidents in China and potentially elsewhere in the region, most likely a carefully choreographed media blackout after a suitable period of absolutely fucking heinous violence in HK, and then the lights will come back on and HK will be a fully integrated part of China.

    This has already gone on much longer than most outside observers bet, especially with Chairman Xi exercising more and more authoritarian rule across Mainland China. But, the one thing I know about China and the Chinese is that they always play the long game. They'll wait patiently, biding their time and eventually they will get what they want.

    Patience, is exactly the reason why Donnie's trade war is destined to fail. The Chinese are going to out wait the US, shit they'll even let the walls come crashing down if it means not reversing course or walking back over their red lines.

  6. #6

    wanna bet?

  7. #7
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    I dont see it ending anytime soon or quietly.China may have the masses under the leash on the mainland but they dont in Hong Kong and that is why the protests started with that extradition bill.....people spoke up and acted loudly and with vehemance as any dog would do as it sees that proverbial "choke chain" being brandished.

    I doubt it will escalate to what happened at Tiananenman square and even the Chinese Government did not keep that under wraps though they did sweep it under the rug.Wont happen this time though.Too much international attention to it.

    SR

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by Lo-ki View Post
    That sounds like Vancouver.....
    The difference is in Vancouver people can vote. Different parties and politicians can suggest ideas on how to change things in terms of the economy, housing, etc etc, and people put their support behind the party they think will best help them.

    In HK there isn't democracy. If the people aren't happy with the status quo, they don't have any way to change things. The government that's in power stays in power, so it only leaves people in HK two choices, shut-up and obey or take to the streets and protest.

  9. #9
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    "take to the streets and protest"
    And how is that working for them.......
    When you are dead, you do not know that you are dead.
    It is the same way when you are stupid.

  10. #10
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    Badly....................

    Last week China did a troop rotation.......not surprisingly more rotated in then rotated out. Honk Kong was to have a 50 year deal of One China Two Governments.......with the direction these protests are going I tend to think that Chinese years are going to be somewhat shorter then British years.
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  11. #11
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    Not going to end well !

    I worked in Mainland China , 1990,s

  12. #12
    I'm thinking that things will come to a "resolution" or "conclusion", as it were, when there is a suitable distraction elsewhere in the world. At the moment, there is a bit too much international and local attention on China and Hong Kong - although technically all China, we still think of it as two separate entities which it is not...

    So..., terrorist attack, major natural disaster, coup d'état, bottom falls out of the global economy; something big and attention grabbing for more than the usual fifteen minute news cycle. Xi's a crafty bugger, not your typical Western trope of the bungling Asiatic despot, but he's going to roll the tanks eventually. But, rolling the tanks without attention being drawn away from the area for just a little bit isn't going to work. Standard Shock Doctrine-esque tactics really...

  13. #13
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    I may have been too quick to suggest that Mainland China would not attach HK any time soon. I just heard that China has started to batton down the hatches. By that I mean that methods of communication that worked as recently as last week are now being stopped by the great firewall of China. I can't give more specific information since someone at my work might be able to figure out who I am if they read this post and I was more specific.

    JD
    Last edited by JimDandy; 09-09-2019 at 02:26 AM.

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    How do I think the protests in Hong Kong will end?

    . . . Hundreds of tanks rumbling down the streets.


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    I personally think that the Chinese government will allow it to go on for a while longer hoping that it burns out on its own. If it doesn't then they will send in troops and tanks to crush the protests. What the time frame is only they know. If they do send in troops and tanks that will be the end of Hong Kong as we know it and they can kiss their independent governance and economic systems good-bye. There is no way the Chinese would withdraw their troops and risk the possibility of the protests re-igniting.

    Quote Originally Posted by storm rider View Post
    I doubt it will escalate to what happened at Tiananenman square and even the Chinese Government did not keep that under wraps though they did sweep it under the rug.Wont happen this time though.Too much international attention to it.
    I could see it getting ugly and don't think the Chinese give a rat's ass about the international reaction. Did foreign governments other than giving it the requisite diplomatic "Shame on You!" really do anything after Tiananmen Square Massacre? No.
    Despite all of their human rights violations, violations of international laws and other atrocities committed, we still do business with them.
    Look at what's happening to Canada right now. We uphold our end of an international treaty, China gets upset, arrests Canadians on trumped up charges and bones our farmers and manufacturers up the ass and our supposed allies do nothing.
    Again there are strong words and diplomatic gestures but no real action.
    I hate to say it but in reality the Chinese could go in and kill 10,000 people and we'd still be buying their products.
    Y'all come back now,
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